Tom Glavine: The last to win 300?

Tom Glavine is off to a fine start with the Mets this year. He is 11-2 with a 3.33 ERA, which is outstanding for anyone but particularly in light of his last three seasons when he seemed to be in decline. He celebrated his 40th birthday in March, and until now it wasn't clear that he'd make it to the 300-win milestone. But since he now has 286 wins (against 186 losses), I'll assume he will make it at this point. If he does, he'll join two other active pitchers in that club, Roger Clemens (341) and Greg Maddux (325), and be the 23rd all-time member. And nine of these pitchers joined in the 1980s or later.

But this then leads me to ask: Who might be next to accomplish it? The answer might be that Glavine will be the last. Now, I wouldn't bet much money on a bold claim like that. Forever is a very long time, and probably someone will get 300 career wins, at some point in the future. But we are quite possibly in for a long wait.

Many others have written about this topic in recent years, and the reasons for coming dearth of 300 winners are obvious: five-man rotations limit the number of games a starting pitcher plays, pitch count tracking and conservative coaches and trainers keep starters from going as long into games as they used to, and the development since the 1980s of ever-more-specialized bullpen roles make it easier for managers to yank even their aces if they begin to faulter in the middle innings.

So who are the likely candidates? Only two I think deserve really strong consideration at this point. Randy Johnson has a 271-142 lifetime record, and has had a superb career. Whether or not he gets 300, he is assured a spot in the Hall of Fame. But he will turn 43 by the end of this season, and while still able to pitch 30 games a year it seems, he is far from his former, totally-dominating self. So far this year is 8-6 with a 5.21 ERA. Let's say he wins another 8 this year, which would leave him 21 shy of the mark. Could he pitch another two seasons? Possibly.

The other I think is worth discussing is Pedro Martinez. He is currently 8th on the active career list in wins, owning an an oustanding 204-87 record. He is 7-3 with a 3.01 ERA so far in 2006, so if he gets another 8 wins this year he'll be at 212. He'll be 35 years old going into next season, so he should have several good seasons left in the tank. Although he has regularly started 29-33 games per season in his career, he has had some injuries, and generally seems a bit more fragile than some other longtime players. So I wonder how long he could go into his 40s, if at all. If he retired after the 2011 season, at nearly 40 years of age, he'd have to average nearly 18 wins a season to make 300. That doesn't seem likely, but not impossible.

What about Mike Mussina, who is 232-130 lifetime, and 8-3 with a 3.42 ERA so far in 2006? He is 37, and is not likely to win more than 16 games in a season ever again. Assuming he gets 8 more this year, he would probably need four more solid years to post 300 lifetime. Could happen I guess.

David Wells has 227 wins, but is 43 years old. Jamie Moyer has 210, and is 43 also. They are nearing retirement I assume.

Curt Schilling is still going strong at 9-2, 3.61 so far this year. He has 201 wins, but didn't start his career very well, and age 39 won't get near 300 I don't think. Ditto for Kenny Rogers who just noticed his 200th victory at age 41. And Andy Pettite is struggling this year, and with 178 wins at age 34 he seems a longshot to make it to 300.

It is an interesting game of "What If?" to consider John Smoltz here. He is now 39 and might have been well on his way to joining former teammates Maddux and Glavine, if not for spending the 2001-2004 seasons as a reliever. He was outstanding in that role, with save totals of 55, 45, and 44, and a 1.12 ERA in 2003. If he had only averaged 15 wins per season those four years, that would be another 60 to pad his career actual 181-133 lifetime record.

I won't speculate about the very young players whose names might one day surface in discussions of 300-win candidates. Few if any of them have even 100 wins yet, so I think it is a fair question to ask whether anyone, beyond Glavine and perhaps Johnson and Martinez, will ever join the elites already in the 300 club.

Thoughts anyone?