2007 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

The Baseball Hall-of-Fame sent out a nice press release recently in regards to the 2007 list of nominees. Tony Gwynn is quotes a few times.

Here is my take on this years nominees, with a few fearless predictions.

1. Only two will be nominated from this list of candidates. Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken. It seems Ripken could come close to breaking Tom Seaver's all-time record for percentage of votes cast, perhaps even be the first even unanimous selection. Gwynn will also get a very high vote total, no doubt.

2. Most pundits seem to think Mark McGwire will not only not get in on his first try, but that voters will punish him over the steroid scandal, and he won't even get 50% of the vote. That wouldn't surprise me, though many of those voters likely think he should eventually be in the HOF, so if he does poorly this year, I bet his vote total will go up a lot in 2008, perhaps enough to make it in.

3. Beyond those big three names, the next biggest new candidate -- and the only one that I think might one day make it in -- is Harold Baines. He finished with 2,866 hits in nearly 10,000 at-bats. He had 384 HR, 488 Doubles, 1,299 Runs, 1,628 RBIs, and a .289 average. He was an all-star six times, but never ranked higher than 9th in the MVP voting. He played a long time and was obviously a steady and good hitter, but never really exceptional. Despite his high career total, he only had 100+ RBI three times. He never had 30 or more HR in a season either. And he played a majority of his games at DH (1644) vs. the OF (1061).

For what its worth (from baseball-reference.com), his Black Ink rating is only 3 (average HOFer is around 27), his Gray Ink rating is only 40 (average HOFer is around 144), his HOF standards rating is 43.5 (average HOFer is around 50), and his HOF Monitor rating is 66.5 (a likely HOFer is over 100). His "most similar batter" rating is with Tony Perez (934) who is in the HOF, but it took him a long time to get there. Only two of his next nine most similar hitters are in the HOF or are likely to be (Al Kaline and Billy Williams).

So I doubt he'll get voted in for a long time, if ever.

4. Some of the other first-timers on the ballot were fine players, but not HOF material (in declining order of how good I think their careers were, not necessarily how I think they'll rank in the vote):

• Jose Canseco - 462 HR, 1,407 RBI, 1,186 Runs, 200 SB, but only .266 average. First ever 40-40 man, and had 6 100+ RBI seasons. All-star six times, ROY in 1986, and MVP in 1988. He was and is the poster child for the steroid scandal in baseball.
  
• Bret Saberhagen - 3.34 ERA, 167-117 record (.588 Pct), with 76 CG in 371 GS. Best season was 1989 when he went 23-6, with a 2.14 ERA to take home the AL Cy Young. Also took the trophy in 1985 with 20-6 mark and 2.87 ERA. All-star three times, and one gold-glove award.
  
• Paul O'Neill - 281 HR, 1,269 RBI, 1,041 Runs, 141 SB, .288 average. Like Baines, a good steady hitter, but not exceptional. Never had 30+ HR in a season, but had 20+ seven times. Four consecutive 100+ RBI seasons for the Yankees from 1997-2000. All-star five times, and led AL in batting in 1994 with .359 mark.
  
• Bobby Bonilla - 287 HR, 1173 RBI, 1084 Runs, .279 average. 6-time all-star. 4 seasons with 100+ RBI.
  
• Eric Davis - 282 HR, 349 SB, but only .269 average and struck out a lot. Injuries kept him from living up to his athletic abilities and the early hype. All-star two times, and won three gold-gloves.
  
• Tony Fernandez - 246 SB, .288 average with minimal power. All-star five times, and was an outstanding defender, winning the gold glove at SS four times.
  
• Jay Buhner - 310 HR, but only .254 average and struck out a lot. All-star only once, and won one gold-glove with his great arm. Was the subject of one of my all-time favorite lines from Seinfeld, when Frank Costanza is criticizing Steinbrenner "What the hell did you trade Jay Buhner for?! He had 30 home runs, over 100 RBIs last year! He's got a rocket for an arm... You don't know what the hell you're doing!"
  
• Dante Bichette - 274 HR, 1141 RBI, 152 SB, .299 average. All-star four times. Led NL in hits twice, and HR once. Had 100+ RBI five seasons in a row. But played his best years Colorado -- so while I don't have his home/road split data in front of me, I am assuming the rare air there padded his numbers a bit.

Then there are four others that I highly doubt will get enough votes to remain on the ballot for 2008:

• Devon White - 208 HR, 346 SB, but only .263 average and struck out a lot. All-star three times. Best attribute was his defense, where he won 7 gold gloves in CF. But played for small market teams, so I doubt he'll get many votes.
  
• Wally Joyner - 204 HR, 1106 RBI, .289 average. All-star only once, in his rookie season. He made a big splash early in his career, but then didn't live up to that early success. He also played for small market teams for most of years.
  
• Bobby Witt - 4.83 ERA, 142-157 record. Walked a lot of batters. Best season was 1990, when he went 17-10 with 221 K, and a 3.36 ERA. Obvioulsy not HOF material.
  
• Scott Brosius - 141 HR, .257 average. All-star once, and won GG award once at 3B. Obviously not HOF material.

Of those returning from last year's ballot, here is what they got in 2006 (75% of votes is needed):

• Jim Rice 337, 64.8%
• Rich Gossage 336, 64.6
• Andre Dawson 317, 61.0
• Bert Blyleven 277, 53.3
• Lee Smith 234, 45.0
• Jack Morris 214, 41.2
• Tommy John 154, 29.6
• Steve Garvey 135, 26.0
• Alan Trammell 92, 17.7
• Dave Parker 75, 14.4
• Dave Concepcion 65, 12.5
• Don Mattingly 64, 12.3
• Orel Hershiser 58, 11.2
• Dale Murphy 56, 10.8
• Albert Belle 40, 7.7

Given the big new names this year, I'll be surprised if any of these guys get the 75% needed for election. Some might go up a bit, but I bet many will go done some. Not surprisingly, I think the top four here might one day make it -- though I'd rank them Gossage, Dawson, Blyleven, Rice. I think Gossage should go in right after Sutter (last year), and Dawson is more deserving than Rice because of his better defense and speed. I think Parker and Murphys should be a bit higher in votes than they have gotten so far. And I am marginally against Lee Smith as a HOFer -- he certainly should not be elected before Goose is.