H2H Fantasy Draft Complete

I'm in two fantasy baseball leagues. One is a traditional Roto 5x5 league, and it has a live draft later this month. The other is a H2H points-based league, and we just concluded our online draft yesterday. In this 10-team league we have 23-man rosters, field a starting lineup plus one utility (any position) player each day, and start six pitchers -- 3 starters, and 3 relievers. You can have any combination of reserves you like, but you cannot have more than 8 starting pitchers on your roster (since you can rotate them in and out of your lineup on a daily basis as they pitch in reality). Also, we have 10 waive moves, mostly used for injury replacements as needed -- since we have no DL.

We are allowed a robust 8 keepers, so there is definitely continuity from year to year. I had one of the best teams least year, so my 8 keepers for 2007 are very strong:
1B Ryan Howard
3B Aramis Ramirez
SS Jimmy Rollins
OF Vladimir Guerrero
OF Travis Hafner (DHs count as OF)
OF Bobby Abreu
SP Cole Hamels
RP Mariano Rivera

I know that Hamels was a risky bet there, but I have confidence in the youngster. Clearly my offense is very strong here -- I just lack starters at C, 2B, and the Utility spot. What I needed most in the 15-player draft then was 1-2 more solid closers, and lots of starting pitchers. So here is how I drafted, in order:
SP Jered Weaver
SP Matt Cain
SP Dan Haren
RP Bobby Jenks
OF Alex Rios
C Mike Piazza
SP Javier Vazquez
1B/3B/OF Aubrey Huff
SP Anibal Sanchez
C Michael Barrett
SP/RP Brandon McCarthy
2B Marcus Giles
2B Jorge Cantu
SP Anthony Reyes
SP Kelvim Escobar

I actually would have chosen a non-SP with my first choice if given the chance, as amazingly catcher Victor Martinez was available! He would have easily been my top choice, but because I did well last year, I picked 8th out of 10 teams and he was gone by the time my turn rolled around. My top choice from the available SPs was taken as well (Jeremy Bonderman), so I went with the young phenom Jered Weaver. As you can see, my staff is loaded with high-risk, great potential youngsters: Hamels, Weaver, Cain, Sanchez, McCarthy, and Reyes. None of them are rookies, but most are still quite raw, 2nd-season guys. Some will no doubt struggle, but I am hoping that perhaps 3 out of these 6 will show strong growth, or even breakout in 2007. My veterans are Haren, Vazquez, and Escobar -- with Haren having the most upside potential, and the other two being fairly low risk in my opinion.

I'm not a big fan of Jenks, but he was the best RP available at the time. McCarthy was an important pickup for me strategically, as he is eligible in our league at both RP and SP. If he bombs in Texas, I can dump him for a surprise saves-accumulator. That is the thing about relief pitchers, beyond the top 10-15, it is really hard to predict who will get saves in any given season. There are always surprises. I've learned the hard way that in fantasy/roto leagues, you shouldn't overpay for saves, because you can always pick some up cheap during the season once bullpen roles get established. If McCarthy works out well but one of the other SPs I have gets hurt or under-performs, then that guy will get dropped for a true reliever who is grabbing saves -- say in early May for instance.

I plan to use Alex Rios as my primary Utility slot player, though any of my reserves could play there as needed. Mike Piazza was a strategic pickup, because he'll be eligible as an OF reserve after a while as he should be mostly DH-ing this year for Oakland. So assuming he is hitting well, I'll play him at C, OF, and U. And I was surprised that Barrett was still available that late -- a solid second catcher for sure!

Aubrey Huff was a strategic pickup, since he is eligible in this league at 1B, 3B, OF, and of course Utility. With a short bench and no DL, have guys that are multi-position eligible is really helpful. If he can hit 25 HR with 90 RBIs, I'll be happy.

Obviously I left 2B until near the end. My view was that after Chase Utley there is a big drop-off. The guys ranked 2-15 at 2B are not that different from each other. Sure Cano, Weeks, and a few others are better than the bottom guys, but not that much better -- and not at all if the lower guys play to their potential and have career years. So given my other needs, I decided early on I'd chance it and grab two 2B late in the draft -- two guys that I hope can rebound from poor 2006 seasons. Giles and Cantu fit that perfectly, so I grabbed them. I just need one of them to perform well, as the other will just be used on off days and will likely get dropped when injury situations arise. Surely either Giles or Cantu will come through for me, right?