Tuesday, February 27, 2007

About Those Mac vs. PC Ads

Like many, I find the Mac vs. PC ads to be pretty funny. You can see them all online here. But the relatively recent one named "Security" I think is my favorite. The last two lines are classic. There have been almost two dozen of these so far... I missed a few of them on TV, so I found it well worth a visit to this site to catch the ones I had missed.

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Monday, February 26, 2007

The Growing Phenomenon Called "Internet"

This ancient video available on YouTube is pretty funny. A trip down memory lane. At least they didn't describe it as a series of tubes, like Senator Ted Stevens infamously did.

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PS3 Song

A funny music video at YouTube about how Sony "killed its PS3 brand", as compared with the latest Xbox and Nintendo offerings. I don't have any of these latest gaming devices, so I don't really have an opinion on these matters... but I still found this video funny, and even enlightening.

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New Radar Maps at Weather.com

I just noticed today the new radar weather maps at weather.com. Until recently, they provided the standard old-school looking radar maps, with a few different sizes available -- but no ability to zoom in on any map. These are still available, but today I noticed that the default weather map now was based on the Microsoft Virtual Earth system. It seems they just overlay the radar/weather data over the Microsoft maps data (I'm sure its more complicated than that, but you get the idea). One benefit of this is the abilty to zoom in and zoom out pretty nicely. You can't zoom all the way down to street or house level and still have the radar/weather data showing up. But you can certainly zoom in farther than before, and you get all the street info and so on that the Microsoft maps give you. Really cool in my opinion!

See this example for Rochester, NY. Scroll down the page to see the map, then click the red button in the top left corner of the map to be able to zoom in and zoom out, as well as move east/west, north/south too.

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Sunday, February 25, 2007

Sports' Best from A to Z

Dave Hyde of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel recently wrote an interesting piece in which he chose the top sports figure from each letter in the alphabet. An easy way to do this is start with the obvious all-time greats, and they take their letter: A is Muhammad Ali, G is Wayne Gretsky, J is Michael Jordan, T is Jim Thorpe, and Z is Babe Didrickson Zaharias. But then it gets harder, and some letters are loaded with options. M is perhaps the toughest, with Dan Marino, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Joe Montana, amongst others. Some letters have few options, like Q where I am glad he chose 1980s reliever Dan Quisenberry -- and idol of mine as a kid. And X is tough... so he punted and chose no one. He also made some non-standard choices as well: Sir Edmund Hillary for H, Secretariat for S, and Phidippides for P (no Pele?). He cheated for L, going with Lance Armstrong since A went to Ali. See the article for the rest of his choices. Good stuff!

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Saturday, February 24, 2007

About Meerkat Manor

One night, when both of us were too tired to continue with work or even to read, Susan and I were flipping around the TV channels and found a wonderful show called "Meerkat Manor" on Animal Planet. This is an ongoing documentary about the lives of several gangs of Meerkats, which according to Wikipedia is a member of the mongoose family of mammals. They live in the Kalahari desert in southern Africa. These are very cute creatures (who doesn't love seeing them all stand together on their hind legs?). And they exhibit very interesting group behaviors, such as babysitting each other's pups while some of the gang leave home to forage for food. But what makes this series particularly appealing is the way the shows have been put together. First, the meerkats are each given their own names (see here for the most prominent members of the Whiskers), and their personalities are described in detail from show to show. You get a very strong sense of the storyline of the meerkats lives, both as individuals and as members of their family gangs. The narration keeps it interesting, and there is always a cliffhanger at the end of each episode, such as "Will casanova Carlos hook up with an unattached female from the neighboring gang?" or "Will the deadly cobra snake hidden in their burrows be a problem for the unsuspecting pups as they sleep overnight?" or "Will baby-sitter Shakespeare be able to defend the young pups against the attacking neighbor gang... can he hold out until the rest of the Whiskers family returns from their foraging trip?" Good stuff!

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On Tetris and New Tivo Features

Unlike many people, I don't drink coffee. So when I wake up and am feeling groggy, I need something else to spring my mind into action for the day. One tactic I employ is playing one or two games that require logic skills. When Tetris (see Wikipedia) came out in the early 1980s we had it on our computer at the time (was it our last Atari or our first IBM PC? I can't remember.) This has been my favorite of what I call "simple games" -- that is, conceptually simple in that they aren't complex role-playing games or graphically intense action games. Tetris has just a few graphics, a few basic rules, and that is it. The rest is just logic and being able to visualize color patterns and so on. I introduced Susan to the game many years ago, and she is hooked too.

A few saturdays back I woke up early, got some cereal, and proceeding to set a new personal all-time high score. Scoring systems vary on each gaming system. I still play Tetris mostly on my old handheld GameBoy Color device. My new high score is 648,029 (see my updated top scores here).

Feeling pretty good about that accomplishment, I decided to spend the rest of my "waking up time" that morning exploring some new features of Tivo. I didn't realize it, but at some point in the last, oh, 18-months or so, my Tivo device's software was updated such that it now provides a wide array of interesting services. You can get various Yahoo!-driven services on the Tivo now for instance. And I knew I could access digital music and photos from home network through the Tivo, though I don't really use these features much.

But what was news to me was the Live365 music radio channel service. By first visiting their website and selecting various channels as pre-sets, you can then listen to these radio channels through your Tivo system. Only the those tagged as "Professional" are available through Tivo, which very much limits the scope of what is available. But it is still a wide range of stations, far more than the built-in digital music channels I get from TimeWarner Cable (which are nice too, and completely ad-free -- the Live365 ones have after every six songs or so, unless you subscribe).

But even more interesting for me were two games I discovered that Tivo provides. I think these have been available for over a year, but I just got around to finding them recently.

The first game is WordSmith. This is based on scrabble, but is a one-player game. You get the scrabble tiles arranged in a rectangle of columns and rows. You can build a word from only the first row's letters. However, when you use a letter, the ones below it in its column shift up, making that next letter in its column immediately available for use. This way, you can plan ahead to try to form big words knowing what letters will be coming up. Also, the scoring is based on the tile point total multiplied by the length of the word. So a major goal is to spell the longest words possible, and to do so with the highest scoring letters as you can. Sometimes you are wise to spell small words -- for admittedly small points -- to enable you to then spell a longer, higher-scoring word later on (and hopefully one that uses the Q, Z, J, or X tiles!). People who are already big scrabble fans, or crossword puzzlers or otherwise wordsmiths, will really enjoy this WordSmith game I think. I've only played it five times so far, so I won't share my scores as they aren't very good in my opinion.

The other game I discovered is SameGame. See the Wikipedia entry for this, as it apparently has been around for decades, and was just recently ported to the Tivo system. Somehow I had never seen it before though. In this game you have a rectangular grid of blue, red, yellow, and green balls, randomly arranged. The goal is to eliminate the balls from the grid, and get the highest score you can in doing so. You can eliminate balls when two or more are touching. Your score is based on the square of the number of balls eliminated in each move... so I think getting rid of only 2 (minimum) will score you 4 points, whereas getting rid of 10 balls touching each other will get you 100 points. Some versions of this game are timed, but the Tivo version is not. Also, the Tivo version gives you a massive 500 point bonus if you can clear the entire board -- this isn't easy, as it is common to be left with say a few balls at the end, with no two neighbors being the same color. Initially my scores were often in the 400-700 range. Then I started getting 800+, with a few over 1,000. Some of these were because I cleared the board and got the bonus, but some were "naturals". Then this morning I got 1,804, which is more than 600 higher than my previous best. I've seen online at various sites where people report higher Tivo SameGame scores than this, including several who have topped 2,000. But I think 1,804 is a pretty good score for just two weeks of practice with this game.

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Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Scambaiting and Monty Python's Dead Parrott Sketch

Back in November I blogged about scambaiting. The photos created by the 419 guys are pretty funny, but nothing nearly as elaborate as what these email scammers did to try to get their scam to work. Check out this video of scammers actually re-enacting (upon request of the scambaiter) the entire Monty Python Dead Parrot sketch. Its not particularly funny in itself, but the concept of asking scammers do this and them actually spending time to memorize the script and act the whole thing out on camera... and submit it... that is what is funny about this! The more time the scammers waste from scambaiters, the less time they can spend trying to scam us!

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On Lock Bumping

Maybe I've just been entirely out of the loop, but the phenomenon of "Lock Bumping" was news to me. See this YouTube video (news report), and also the Wikipedia entry on this. Assuming this isn't some sort of scam, this is pretty scary stuff.

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Monday, February 19, 2007

On the New Atheism

I've been getting caught up on my Wired magazine reading this weekend. The November issue had a cover story that I put off reading for when I had the time, because I knew it would be of interest to me. The cover reads: "The New Atheism. No Heaven. No Hell. Just Science. Inside the crusade against religion." The main article is annoyingly titled "The Church of the Non-Believing", and centers around the latest three books defending atheism, and/or attacking belief in the supernatural (with traditional religious belief being a large part of that). These are evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins' best-seller The God Delusion, neuroscientist Sam Harris' Letter to a Christian Nation, and philosopher Daniel Dennett's Breaking the Spell: Religion as a Natural Phenomenon.

The Wired article is a good read, particularly if you don't have the time or interest to read any of these three new books. It summarizes the angle that each of these three folks are taking in attacking supernatural beliefs, mysticism, faith - in short, the essence of religions the world around. And it presents how this represents "new" atheism: not that the arguments used by these writers are new per se, but that their attitude to their task is new, as they see a new urgency to ridding the world of belief in the supernatural. For what its worth, in what follows I'll just be picking and choosing bits and pieces from the Wired article that I feel like commenting on.

There is a nice quote from Dawkins on the onus of proof issue (that it isn't up to science to disprove God, or any other arbitrary assertion or existential claim made without evidence.) He even mentions the Flying Spaghetti Monster (see the original website and the Wikipedia entry on this for more info), a variant on Russell's teapot example (see Wikipedia on this too). Dawkins pleas for non-believers to come out of the closet as it were, noting that there are more non-believers in the US alone than there are Jewish people on the entire planet. Dawkins also notes here that the battle between evolution and creationism is just that -- a minor battle, the tip of the iceberg. The real war is between naturalism and supernaturalism, noting that "sensible" religious people are actually more fundamentally akin to the "extreme" religious believers than they are to pro-reason atheists like Dawkins -- because they are fundamentally supernaturalists, not naturalists. This is of course one dimension on which beliefs can be considered, and on this point at least, he is correct.

Before shifting from discussing Dawkins to Harris, the author of this article, Gary Wolf, makes an interesting point about why some people dismiss atheism or at least don't admit their own non-belief in religion. Some people consider it rude. That is "Atheism is like telling somebody, 'The very thing you hinge your life on, I totally dismiss.' ... This is the statement the New Atheists believe must be made - loudly, clearly and before it's too late."

The consideration of Sam Harris is interesting, and includes a quote from his book:
"Nonbelievers like myself stand beside you," he writes, addressing his imaginary
opponent, "dumbstruck by the Muslim hordes who chant death to whole nations of
the living. But we stand dumbstruck by you as well – by your denial of tangible
reality, by the suffering you create in service to your religious myths, and by
your attachment to an imaginary God."
I also enjoyed this exchange between Wolf and Harris. Harris certainly doesn't pull punches:

"Look at slavery," he says. We are at a beautiful restaurant in Santa Monica, near the public lots from which Americans – nearly 80 percent of whom believe the Bible is the true word of God, if polls are correct – walk happily down to the beach in various states of undress. "People used to think," Harris says, "that slavery was morally acceptable. The most intelligent, sophisticated people used to accept that you could kidnap whole families, force them to work for you, and sell their children. That looks ridiculous to us today. We're going to look back and be amazed that we approached this asymptote of destructive capacity while allowing ourselves to be balkanized by fantasy. What seems quixotic is quixotic – on this side of a radical change. From the other side, you can't believe it didn't happen earlier. At some point, there is going to be enough pressure that it is just going to be too embarrassing to believe in God."

Suddenly I notice in myself a protective feeling toward Harris. Here is a man who believes that a great global change, perhaps the most important cultural change in the history of humanity, will occur out of sheer intellectual embarrassment.

We discuss what it might look like, this world without God. "There would be a religion of reason," Harris says. "We would have realized the rational means to maximize human happiness. We may all agree that we want to have a Sabbath that we take really seriously – a lot more seriously than most religious people take it. But it would be a rational decision, and it would not be just because it's in the Bible. We would be able to invoke the power of poetry and ritual and silent contemplation and all the variables of happiness so that we could exploit them. Call it prayer, but we would have prayer without bullshit."

I do call it prayer. Here is the atheist prayer: that our reason will subjugate our superstition, that our intelligence will check our illusions, that we will be able to hold at bay the evil temptation of faith.

Just as I found the use of the word "Church" in the article's title to be annoying, I find the use of the word "prayer" here to be annoying. Worse than annoying really, they are conceptually confused, as they demonstrate a lack of understanding of essentials in defining one's terms. And for what reason? Just to be cute or to draw attention in the case of the title. Can't Mr. Wolf show off his writing chops without causing readers to further muddy important concepts under discussion?

But that aside, what Harris is saying here is striking. His prediction, or perhaps his hope, is that eventually there will be some sort of point of inflection in the culture (of the world), where supernatural beliefs, faith, mysticism -- the core of what is essential to religion -- will be seen to be intellectually embarrassing. Many people look on astrology that way today for example. Or consider the tribal belief systems of Africa or other third-world countries. These are often polytheistic or animist. I've always assumed that most Christians, and other believers of the major religions, see these obscure (to them) systems of supernatural belief as "intellectually embarrassing". But why? They are no more or less supernaturally-based than their own religious beliefs are. And they are no more or less in need of faith for at least some of the basket of beliefs. Harris is just noting that there could (will?) come a time when the same will be said of all religions -- Christianity and so on will be seen the way astrology, palm-reading, or tribal beliefs are seen today.

Or consider another case. I've always thought about how I (and I assume most viewers) react to seeing the religions of aliens from other planets portrayed in sci-fi movies and TV shows. For instance, consider the mystic beliefs of the Klingons in the Star Trek series. I always reacted to that as follows "Those silly Klingons. They have no evidence for their beliefs in the supernatural, life after death, and so on." But then why not apply this attitude to your own religious beliefs? I think most believers do so not only to fictional religions from sci-fi shows, but also to a great many obscure real religions here on Earth -- just not to their own (and perhaps a few other mainstream ones that they "respect").

This is all similar to the old atheist line that notes the difference between the Atheist and the monotheists, e.g., Christians/Jews/Muslims. It goes like this: "You reject eastern religions or the ancient Greek gods in part because they believe in multiple gods. Well, I believe in one less god than you."

I'm always careful when employing that line, because while humorous, I think it is philosophically misleading. It could be taken to imply that there is commonality on the essential point between the atheist and the monotheist, just as their is between the monotheist and the polytheist. But while the latter is true, the former is not: as Dawkins made the point, the key distinction is between naturalism and supernaturalism, not in this case, between how many supernatural beings your belief system allows for.

Getting back now to this lengthy article in Wired, I must say the part I was least pleased with was the section covering philosopher Daniel Dennett. I'm not sure if this is because I disagree with some of Dennett's views, or whether he wasn't reported well in this article -- I'd have to read Dennett's latest book to find out. For example: "Ethical problems must be solved by reason, not arbitrary rules. And yet, on the other hand, Dennett knows that reason alone will fail." That is a view I disagree with, but is that really Dennett's view, or a misrepresentation by Wolf? Or consider also Dennett's view of ethical "default settings", whatever those are explained to be exactly. This sounds like a variant on moral intuitionism, a broad umbrella very popular in philosophy departments in recent years, but a methodology and viewpoint I think is very flawed.

Or consider this passage from the article:

"Yes, there could be a rational religion," Dennett says. "We could have a rational policy not even to think about certain things." He understands that this would create constant tension between prohibition and curiosity. But the borders of our sacred beliefs could be well guarded simply by acknowledging that it is pragmatic to refuse to change them.

I ask Dennett if there might not be a contradiction in his scheme. On the one hand, he aggressively confronts the faithful, attacking their sacred beliefs. On the other hand, he proposes that our inherited defaults be put outside the limits of dispute. But this would make our defaults into a religion, unimpeachable and implacable gods. And besides, are we not atheists? Sacred prohibitions are anathema to us.

Dennett replies that exceptions can be made. "Philosophers are the ones who refuse to accept the sacred values," he says. For instance, Socrates.

I find this answer supremely odd. The image of an atheist religion whose sacred objects, called defaults, are taboo for all except philosophers – this is the material of the cruelest parody. But that's not what Dennett means. In his scenario, the philosophers are not revered authorities but mental risk-takers and scouts. Their adventures invite ridicule, or worse. "Philosophers should expect to be hooted at and reviled," Dennett says. "Socrates drank the hemlock. He knew what he was doing."

While I admit being confused as to what Dennett might be meaning with all this, based on what I've read in this article, I don't like the sound of it. It seems as though he is yet another moral intuitionist, or someone who believes we have ethical views (e.g., altruism in various forms and variants) placed in us through evolution, and that this is somehow a defense of them as the right ethical principles to live one's life by. And beyond that, Dennett seems to be saying that the average person need not question these ethical principles -- just let the philosophers handle that, since that is what they are good at. He says it could be "pragmatic" for the average person to not think about the details of this, and to just guard our common ethical "defaults" and presumably enforce them in society when necessary. That I disagree with all of this (if understanding his views correctly from the brief blurb in this article) I'll just say now for the record. I'm sure it will come up on this blog again in the future, and I'll explain further at that time.

Leaving my confusion over Dennett's views, the other failing of this article is the final paragraph:
The New Atheists have castigated fundamentalism and branded even the mildest religious liberals as enablers of a vengeful mob. Everybody who does not join them is an ally of the Taliban. But, so far, their provocation has failed to take hold. Given all the religious trauma in the world, I take this as good news. Even those of us who sympathize intellectually have good reasons to wish that the New Atheists continue to seem absurd. If we reject their polemics, if we continue to have respectful conversations even about things we find ridiculous, this doesn't necessarily mean we've lost our convictions or our sanity. It simply reflects our deepest, democratic values. Or, you might say, our bedrock faith: the faith that no matter how confident we are in our beliefs, there's always a chance we could turn out to be wrong.
First "church", then "prayer", and now... "faith" used in a confused and essence-destroying way. Faith is the continued belief in a proposition when no evidence in its favor is available. Catholics, for example have "faith" in the virgin birth and miracles, even though these defy scientific evidence, as well as "The Trinity", even though this violates the logical law of identity. They admit this, and that is why these are doctrines of faith (as opposed to many other of their views, that following Aquinas, can be defended -- so they say -- by reason, and so resorting to faith isn't necessary.) But who has "faith" -- belief without evidence -- in the universal skepticism of "there's always a chance we could turn out to be wrong"? Does the author really have faith in that? Or is he just weaseling out of taking an atheist stand against arbitrary claims? One need not claim omniscience -- one just needs to brand the arbitrary as arbitrary.

This paragraph also gives us a false alternative. Note that the so-called "New Atheists" do not (to my knowledge) equate Al-Qaeda and the Taliban as equal to progressive/liberal Christians. The former are intellectual allies and enablers of the former -- on the most fundamental level, because they are all supernaturalists. But recognizing that, and fighting against supernaturalism wherever one sees it, does not render the "New Atheist" incapable of drawing important distinctions, such as the difference between an enabler and the actual do-er. The difference between the person who believes in the supernatural and who uses that as his reasons for murdering people, versus the person who believes in the supernatural, but who does not -- indeed, who in some cases fights at all levels except the most fundamental one against those who commit such acts of violence. Obviously the "New Atheists" are able to make such distinctions between thought and action, while still maintaining the fundamental issue of supernaturalism vs. naturalism is something that really needs to be focused on.

Having made those complaints, this lengthy Wired article is a worthwhile read -- for atheists, agnostics, and religious believers alike. And don't miss the sidebar items too, on the right in the box labelled "Faces of the New Atheism", which includes a brief item about comedians Penn and Teller, who are not only atheist but generally pro-liberty as well -- and are a rare breed... celebrities I'd like to meet someday!

Lastly, I'll note that a while back I started reading one of the three books mentioned here, The God Delusion by Richard Dawkins. I've read the preface and the first two chapters, and skimmed other parts so far. I plan to post comments on a chapter-by-chapter basis to this blog, so if you care about issues of atheism and religion, you might be interested in those. They'll be slow in coming though, as I read so many other things each week, finding time to read actual books is a luxury.

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Alert: Don't Lick Your Lunchbox 600 Times a Day for 15 Days

I remember the good ol' cafeteria days I experienced at a public elementary school in a small town in Western, NY. Lunch ladies blowing a whistle when kids acted up, or worse, making us sit "boy/girl/boy/girl" because the boys (typically) would cause trouble if allowed to sit together. Of course, a few years later we gents would have been all to happy to be allowed to sit boy/girl/boy/girl, but in 2nd or even 5th grade, that was no fun at all.

And the food... ah, the food. Tater tots, fruit salad from a can, mexican pizzas (orange grease with some bread and other stuff holding it together), and of course small ice-cream dixie-cups for a quarter (if I remember correctly).

And then there were the lunchboxes. In the 1970s and early 1980s there were some very cool lunchboxes you could have: Star Wars and comic book superheroes for the guys, and other movie stars and things of interest for the girls (can you tell I didn't pay attention to "their" lunchboxes at that age?). Or, you could brown-bag it -- something we all did as we matured into middle- and high-school.

But what we didn't have were fancy, back-pack like vinyl lunch "boxes". I must have missed when those became popular, because I surely don't remember them from my days in school three decades ago. And perhaps that is just as well -- hot news in the newspaper and even on cable news today is that these things might have unsafe levels of lead in them, that could rub off and either get on children's skin or get into the food they are carrying inside. I hadn't heard this story before, but it no doubt made the news a while ago, as Wal-Mart pulled some brands and offered refunds for some customers (oh, that evil Wal-Mart!).

So the new news is that a report of 2005 testing by government scientists might have left out important information -- key data that meant the danger from lead in these lunchboxes was being wrongly dismissed. See this AP article from the Akron-Beacon Journal, nearly identical to the one which ran in my local paper. And if you want to learn more, you can read the release from the CEH (Center for Environmental Health) which is leading the charge against the CPSC (Consumer Product Safety Commission), the government agency "charged with protecting the public from unreasonable risks of serious injury or death from more than 15,000 types of consumer products."

If the CPSC committed scientific fraud in leaving out or distorting data, then that is one thing. Not being an expert, I can't really comment on the merits of the case being made by the CEH. Their press release includes various documents, but I'm not entirely convinced of what they are claiming against the CPSC.

And one reason I'm skeptical is that this story sound so very similar to the Alar scare (see Wikipedia entry) of the 1980s, in which the original tests that led to the scare actually meant that you'd have to drink far more apple juice every day than your stomach could even handle, and do so for many years, before Alar would be a risk as a carcinogen (or similarly eat so many apples that your insides would explode well before you were in danger of cancer from the Alar). The similarity arises here because of the following:
As a result of their tests, the CPSC issued a public statement last year reassuring consumers they had nothing to worry about: "Based on the extremely low levels of lead found in our tests, in most cases, children would have to rub their lunchbox and then lick their hands more than 600 times every day, for about 15-30 days, in order for the lunchbox to present a health hazard.''
Again, I'm not an expert here, but the similarity is striking.

Oh, and gotta love the knee-jerk over-reaction of some in Congress:
Said Rep. Henry A. Waxman, D-Calif.: 'I am concerned that the CPSC has failed to protect children from an unnecessary hazard they have known about for some time. We should protect our children by banning lead in all children's products.'
Ban all lead in all children's products? Really? Does the science really back that up? I highly doubt it. And I'm not even going to mention the philosophical question about the proper role of government, and whether it should be banning things like lead at all. Well, I guess I did just mention it... OK, so I won't say anything more about it... for now.

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The Death of 20-Win Seasons?

Each February I visit a local grocery or book store, look over the baseball preview magazines, and pick out two or three to buy. Since 1980 (at the age of seven) I have always gotten the classic Street and Smith's Baseball Annual. The one or two others that I pick up, which vary from year to year, are usually entirely fantasy/roto baseball focused, to help prepare me for my upcoming drafts.

S&S still provides great team summaries (leaving aside the problem that they, like most magazines in February, are not up to date with the most recent off-season moves). Their advice for fantasy and roto leagues, now 14 pages in length, includes some strange opinions sometimes, with their rankings probably not being the most reliable (or even close to it).

But this year's issue had an odd two-page article called "Death of the 20-game Winner?" (sorry, not available online). Author Scot Gregor begins by noting that last year, for the first time in baseball history (excluding the strike-shortened seasons of 1981, 1994, and 1995), there were no pitchers who won 20 games or more. Long ago 20+ wins was not that impressive -- Cy Young did it a record 16 times, and both Christy Mathewson and Warren Spahn did it 13 times each. And as recent as 1971 the Orioles managed four starters with 20+ wins on the same team!

But last year the AL's best were Johan Santana and Chien-Ming Wang with 19 wins each, and in the NL six players tied for the lead... with only 16 wins each! So that is what prompted Mr. Gregor to ask his title question.

Many reasons for the decline in win totals are given: luck is needed, good health is needed, consistent run-support is needed, durability to go deep in games is needed. And since the 1970s two relevant, major changes have occurred. First, four-man rotations turned into five-man rotations, so starters are starting less games per season. And of course the nature and use of bullpens has changed in the past several decades, with not only closers being a specialist position, but more and more pitchers being groomed (and paid handsomely) to be lefty or righty setup men. Add to that the high salaries that premium starters get, and there is a natural desire to not wear them out with too many innings of work - get them out of there, and let someone fresh come in and finish the game (or a few such specialists). Winning the game is what matters, and winning a lot of games is what really matters -- so we need our best starters to be injury-free for the whole season. That is no doubt the thinking of many managers and pitching coaches these days, and if it means starting pitchers don't rack up as many W's, so be it.

The article mentions "offensive firepower" being dominant since the late 1990s, but I don't see that as being a factor in this question. But leaving that aside, the reasons listed above would lead one to assume that 20+ Win season should be becoming more and more rare. But vanish entirely? That was the article's headline, and I found that a bizarre speculation -- at least at this time. Yes, 2006 was a first. But to defend the thesis raised in the article's title question, one needs to consider trends -- not just list all the reasons as above, but actually look at number trends (since we are talking about a number afterall, namely 20). The article didn't even begin to do that, so I thought it would be a fun project for me to tackle.

It just so happens that this little 2-hour project afforded me the chance to do two other things I've been meaning to get around to. First, I download the latest version (5.4) of the Lahman baseball statistics database, available in various formats from baseball1.com. And to create nice charts of the data, I was able to use my newly purchased Excel 2007, from the Office 2007 Pro Suite I upgraded to recently. So what I did was create several SQL queries in Access to pull together the data that would show the count of various metrics for the years being considered. I decided to start with 1970, which is 37 years ago and I figure enough data to sensibly consider trends on this question.

So below are links for the four charts I've created. In each chart, you'll notice that I've added vertical blue lines for the three years where two teams were added to MLB: 1977, 1993, 1998. I did this because this meant there were more players, including more pitchers, and since these are raw numbers and counts, that could mean more pitchers reaching the totals tracked (in the first two charts). While expansion teams aren't likely to have great starting pitchers during their first few years, after a while, there are just more people in this role, and more total wins to be had in MLB, so I would think there could be more people getting the totals under consideration. (Think about it this way -- if there were 1,000 teams in MLB, rather than 30, you'd expect more 20+ winners each year, right?)

Also, the data omits 1981, 1994, and 1995, since as noted earlier these were strike-shortened seasons.
  1. Count of 18+ and 20+ Winners since 1970 - Clearly there has been a decrease in the number of 20+ and 18+ game winners during this span. (I decided to track both because given the factors described earlier, including things completely outside the control of a pitcher, I figure there are a few games a year where the pitcher could have easily won if only some oddball factor had gone the other way.)
  2. Count of 30+ and 35+ GS; 5+ CG since 1970 - Here we see quite clearly the effect of some of the factors described earlier. Complete Game totals have declined dramatically since the early 70s. Pitchers are being pulled for pitchcounts and in order to use specialists in the bullpen. The red line shows the impact that the shift from 4-man to 5-man rotations has had. Very few starters get 35 games started each year now. And Then the blue line show that many are still getting 30 games started, and I assume the slight increase here is due both to the 5-man rotation shift (spreading the games started amongst more guys) and also the influx of the six expansion teams during this era (more starting pitchers pitching).
  3. Leader in IPouts (IP) since 1970 - This one shows the MLB leader in "IPOuts" -- if you divide by three, you'll get the more common statistic, Innings Pitched (IP). This number shows a dramatic drop off from the early 1970s through the mid-1980s, and since then has declined further, but only slightly. This reflects both the shift from 4-man to 5-man rotations (I think that makes up the dramatic early shift) and also the increasingly specialized nature of bullpens and the concern with pitchcounts (I think that makes up the continuing gradual decline).
  4. Leader in W, GS, CG since 1970 - This one show the MLB leader in Wins, Games Started, adn Complete Games. Games Started has definitely declined during this span, again mostly because of the 4-man to 5-man rotation change I assume. Since 1988 the leader in GS each year has been pretty stable. The annual leader in Complete Games, on the other hand, keeps getting lower and lower. In the early 1970s the leader would usually get near 30 CG (!), today the best gets 6-10. This is the pitchcount and bullpen specialization effect in all its glory. And then we see Win leaders, which have also declined overall since 1970, though not all that dramatically. For instance, Bob Welch nabbed 27 victories in 1990, which equals the 27 Steve Carlton got in 1972. But overall, there has been a slight decline here -- but not so much, in my opinion, to warrant the alarmist notion the S&S article's headline raises.

In writing this blog entry I fought the urge to invoke Mark Twain as an opening. So instead I'll do so in closing. Death of the 20-game winner? Such reports, the numbers show, are exaggerated.

Lastly, on a related issue, see my blog posting last June: Tom Glavine: The Last to Win 300? As an update to that piece, Glavine is at 290 and Randy Johnson is at 280, so I'd now say Glavine is a near-lock, and Johnson has a good shot too. But beyond that, I still have to wonder if anyone will ever reach that milestone again (see that blog posting for others I considered).

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Better Body, Better Mind

The January issue of Wired's cover story, or series of stories, had some interesting bits in it. The story "The Perfect Human" about Dean Karnazes gave incredible details about what he has been able to accomplish as a long-distance runner, and includes some of his dietary and other practices. This guy ran 50 marathons in 50 days, will do 200 miles "just for fun", and races in all kinds of difficult conditions (e.g., 120 degree heat, high altitudes, and so on).

The "Run Faster" piece describes a far more "normal" person's quest to improve his one-mile run time from over 8 minutes to just six minutes -- but do so in just 4 weeks of training. And the similar "Be Smarter" describes another normal guy's quest to improve his intelligence after just 4 weeks of brain-training. Both of these articles provide ideas on self-improvement that are worth considering.

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Sunday, February 18, 2007

NBA Greats

I'm not nearly as knowledgeable of pro-basketball as I am baseball. But I'm a fan of the game, of the Lakers in particular, and I'm looking forward to tonight's NBA All-Star Game.

Bob Matthews had an interesting column in my local paper today, ranking the all-time greats of NBA basketball. In 1996, the NBA commemorated its 50th anniversary by choosing an official "50 Best and Most Influential Players". Here is how Matthews ranks those 50:
  1. Michael Jordan
  2. Wilt Chamberlain
  3. Oscar Robertson
  4. Bill Russell
  5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
  6. Magic Johnson
  7. Larry Bird
  8. George Mikan
  9. Karl Malone
  10. Julius Erving
  11. Elgin Baylor
  12. Bob Cousy
  13. Bob Pettit
  14. Hakeem Olajuwon
  15. Moses Malone
  16. Shaquille O'Neal (the only still active player on the list)
  17. Jerry West
  18. John Havlicek
  19. David Robinson
  20. Kevin McHale
  21. Charles Barkley
  22. Isiah Thomas
  23. Walt Frazier
  24. Patrick Ewing
  25. Willis Reed
  26. Dolph Schayes
  27. Dave Cowens
  28. Billy Cunningham
  29. Elvin Hayes
  30. John Stockton
  31. Rick Barry
  32. George Gervin
  33. Earl Monroe
  34. Pete Maravich
  35. Nate Archibald
  36. Paul Arizin
  37. Dave Bing
  38. Sam Jones
  39. Clyde Drexler
  40. Robert Parish
  41. Scottie Pippen
  42. James Worthy
  43. Lenny Wilkens
  44. Wes Unseld
  45. Bill Sharman
  46. Nate Thurmond
  47. Bill Walton
  48. Jerry Lucas
  49. Dave DeBusschere
  50. Hal Greer
I have no major disagreements with this ranking... though I'd probably have Shaq a bit higher up. He then wrote:

Assuming the next official NBA all-time team will be the top 75 players for the league's 75th anniversary, here are the active players I believe already have clinched spots (in order of my preference):

  • Tim Duncan
  • Kobe Bryant
  • Allen Iverson
  • Kevin Garnett
  • Jason Kidd
  • Gary Payton
I agree with those choices, particularly the first three. Then he added:

Other active players who are well on their way to making the top-75 list:

  • Steve Nash (a third MVP award would be the clincher)
  • Dirk Nowitzki
  • LeBron James
  • Dwyane Wade
  • Carmelo Anthony
  • Tracy McGrady

Dwight Howard, Vince Carter, Ray Allen, Jermaine O'Neal, Gilbert Arenas, Elton Brand, Amare Stoudemire and Chris Bosh have more to do but can't be discounted.

Five retired players who didn't make the 50th anniversary team but will deserve consideration for the 75th anniversary team are Dominique Wilkins, Bob McAdoo, Reggie Miller, Alex English and Connie Hawkins.

I'd say Nash is already deserving, and I agree that Dirk, Lebron, and Dwayne are certainly well on their way. And I thought Dominique Wilkins should have been included in the original 50 anyway, so definitely when/if they expand to 75. And Reggie Miller for sure also.

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Saturday, February 17, 2007

Latest New Features at EpistemeLinks

In the past six weeks or so I've added several cool new features to EpistemeLinks. Here are the highlights:

Custom Search Engines
EpistemeLinks now provides four "custom search engines." These are provided in conjunction with the Google Co-Op program, which allows one to define a range of domains or websites to be included in a particular search database. EpistemeLinks provides a custom search engine for each of the following:

  1. Encyclopedia entries from the SEP and IEP
  2. Philosophy encyclopedia entries from a broader range of resources (SEP and IEP, plus Wikipedia, Encarta, and more)
  3. The philosophy E-Texts that are linked in the E-Texts section (some 2,100+ of them!)
  4. The philosophy blogs linked in the Blogs section (some 170+ of them!).
These are each available from their relevant sections at the site, but also from a master Custom Search Engines page.

Google Gadgets
EpistemeLinks now provides several "Google Gadgets". These are blocks of content from the EpistemeLinks database that can be displayed on your own website, such as your personal homepage, philosophy department website, and so on. The appearance of the content can be set by the user (height, width, border style), and it is very easy to make use of these on your webpages - just add one line of HTML code! The Gadgets currently available include:

  1. The current date's philosopher birthdays and dates of death.
  2. A random quotation selected from a set of famous philosopher quotes in the EpistemeLinks database.
  3. Search the pages of the EpistemeLinks website.
  4. Search the Philosophy E-Texts linked at EpistemeLinks (using the CSE mentioned above)
  5. Search the Philosophy Blogs linked at EpistemeLinks (using the CSE mentioned above)
  6. Search the entries of the SEP and IEP (using the CSE mentioned above)
  7. Search a broader set of philosophy encyclopedia entries (using the CSE mentioned above)
For information on all of these, see the Google Gadgets page.

Two RSS Feeds
EpistemeLinks is pleased to offer its first two RSS feeds. The first RSS feed provides announcements about what's new at the site. The other RSS feed is for Philosophy Events, and includes each new philosophy event that is added to the Events Calendar, in the order that they are added (links added in the past two months are included). In this way, the RSS feed serves as a timely conference announcements resource.

Job Listings Database
EpistemeLinks.com now includes individual job listings in philosophy in its database. Like all areas of EpistemeLinks, browsing this section is free and open to the public. The job listings data provided in this section is submitted from the respective employers (which of course will be mostly, but perhaps not exclusively, philosophy departments with faculty openings). To submit a job listing, employers are to use the Job Listing web form.

Please note that at present this feature is in *beta-testing.* Once a dozen or so job listings are included, they will be searchable by AOS/AOC topic areas, state/province/country location, and other criteria. For now, all are shown on one page, sorted by date added. Further, at this time job listings are *free*, and will remain so until 15 job listings have been included. At that time EpistemeLinks will charge the employers $50 per job listing going forward. The job listings will remain open and free for users to browse.

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Friday, February 16, 2007

Stay Organized with OneNote 2007

For many years (basically since becoming an adult) I had an increasing chaos in my life. I am someone who has lots of ideas for projects I'd like to undertake, items I want to read, things I want to learn more about, websites I want to explore, and on and on and on. For years I would keep paper scraps and post-it notes around my desk and elsewhere with things scribbled on them. I would sometimes grow frustrated with this and transcribe them into a simple text file on my computer. While doing this would clear up my desk for a few days or weeks, it didn't last. And then I'd end up with these text files with unorganized notes in them, along with a fresh pile of paper scraps and post-its.

On top of this, I was also carrying around a lot of ideas and other information important to me in my brain. My gray matter was getting seriously overtaxed by this. And worst of all, I hate to forget things -- I mean I really hate it -- and starting several years ago I found myself forgetting stuff more and more often... and I was only 30 years old, not 75!

And of course technology, the Internet in particular, in a sense only made all of this worse, since it provides so much information at your fingertips -- so much to read and see, so little time!

A little over a year ago this information overload and anarchy reached crisis levels for me.

Fortunately, technology came to the rescue. There are many software applications, both desktop apps and web-based, that are intended to help you organize your "stuff" -- your appointments, your to-do lists, your reading lists, websites to visit, people to correspond with, phone numbers, addresses, and so on. But the one I discovered a year ago, and that I have been using consistently ever since, is Microsoft OneNote. This is a new app in the Office family (2003 was when it started), and it doesn't come with the Standard or Professional office suites.

I've been waiting to mention this here on my blog until the 2007 version was released and I had it installed. Visit that link to download a trial version -- check it out! If you try it and like it, you can get it for less than $100, and see the discounted price at Amazon especially.

So what can you do with OneNote? Well, the structure of it is: Notebook, Tab, Page -- and then content on each page. This is patterned on the tradition of paper notebooks with those colored tabs. I find this to be a very intuitive approach, and more than enough structure for me to categorize and organize all the data that I want to keep track of in OneNote.

What can you put in a OneNote page? Anything really. Text obviously, and formatted as paragraphs, lists, etc. Plus graphics, hyperlinks, entire webpages, entire files -- that's right, you can embed entire files like PDF or Excel files, and it makes a copy of that file along with the Notebook.

I mostly use it for just text and hyperlinks to websites. But perhaps someday I'll store richer objects in my OneNote notebooks as well.

Here is some text from the OneNote 2007 Guide that comes with the software (and is loaded with great info, tutorials, and ideas for how to use the program), that I think accurately describes what it is about:

OneNote is an idea processor, a notebook, an information organizer — some even call it an "add-on pack for your brain". Many people find OneNote indispensible once they start using it and we hope you do too!

OneNote can help if you need to:

  • Make sure you don't lose any information that you think is important
  • Organize scraps of information that don't fit well into e-mail, calendar, or formal documents
  • Gather and refer back to notes from meetings or lectures
  • Collect research from the Web or other sources and annotate it for yourself or others
  • Keep track of what you need to do next and not miss anything
  • Work closely with other people on a project sharing notes and files

I especially like the description of it as an "add-on pack for your brain" -- that is how I think of it!

Something in particular I like about this program is that it promotes good, epistemologically sound information grouping practices. That is, it is very hard to end up with a chaotic OneNote notebook, thereby just duplicating in electronic form the chaos and overload you are trying to clear away from your old approach (or lack thereof). It promotes healthy organization through the Notebook/Tab/Page system, and in particular I think through the use of the tabs. There are only so many tabs you can display horizontally on the screen. At first this might seem like a limitation of the application -- that is what I thought initially. But then I realized that when you hit 7-9 tabs in a notebook, you should probably think about restructuring -- either move some that are related together to a second notebook (which is easily accessible all the time still), or if some have just a single page in them, perhaps they don't deserve to be separate tabs at all.

At Element K we call this kind of grouping principle the "chunking principle": when we create courseware, we try group topics into lessons and lessons into courses such that we don't have any really large groups (or really small groups either).

This is also similar to what Objectivists call "The Crow Epistemology", from Ayn Rand's remarks in Introduction to Objectivist Epistemology:

The story of the following experiment was told in a university classroom by a professor of psychology. I cannot vouch for the validity of the specific numerical conclusions drawn from it, since I could not check it first-hand. But I shall cite it here, because it is the most illuminating way to illustrate a certain fundamental aspect of consciousness--of any consciousness, animal or human.

The experiment was conducted to ascertain the extent of the ability of birds to deal with numbers. A hidden observer watched the behavior of a flock of crows gathered in a clearing in the woods. When a man came into the clearing and went on into the woods, the crows hid in the tree tops and would not come out until he returned and left the way he had come. When three men went into the woods and only two returned, the crows would not come out: they waited until the third one had left. But when five men went into the woods and only four returned, the crows came out of hiding. Apparently, their power of discrimination did not extend beyond three units--and their perceptual-mathematical ability consisted of a sequence such as: one-two-three-many.

Or consider this example from human perception. If you look at a rectangle you know immediately that it has four sides, but if you are shown a 13 or 21-side figure, you'd have to count the sides to know how many there are.

My point here is just that I think there is good reason that I find OneNote to be such an effective tool, because it reinforces, or is at least consistent with, the way our brains work in some important and fundamental ways.

And all of this is only scratching the surface... I won't discuss here the program's search capability, Outlook and other email integration, Save to PDF feature, extremely powerful tagging capability, shared notebooks for collaboration, the ample documentation, tutorials, and ideas for using the program that come with it... and on and on.

I have some friends and colleagues who are big on personal organization. I'm sure they've got their own tools, that are similar to OneNote, and some are perhaps better in some respects. And they might even be free. So perhaps OneNote isn't "best of breed", but I sure love it.

But my point with this blog post is two fold. To introduce you to OneNote, true. But also to note the issues of information overload, and the value that such programs -- whether OneNote or others -- can have in your life. If you find yourself inundated with ideas, information, websites, books, articles, blogs to read, and on and on and on... hey it is the information age afterall!... you owe it to yourself to spend a little time, and perhaps a little money, to fix this situation! Try OneNote... you might be really glad you did.

Lastly, I'll note that my wife Susan uses OneNote also, and is just as passionate about it as I am. So its not just me!

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Gollum and Smeagol Sing Barry White

Here is another good YouTube video... Gollum/Smeagol from the Lord of the Rings movies singing a Barry White love song. I have no idea how the person who created this thought of this idea, but they did a good job with it!

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Introducing the Book

Another interesting YouTube video, this one depicting what it might have been like for technical support staff helping people when the book was first introduced as an improvement over the scroll. Pretty funny...

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Nora, the Piano-Playing Cat

This video from YouTube is pretty funny. Although easily distracted, she seems to enjoy doing this.

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Thursday, February 15, 2007

The Mr. Deity Series

The Mr. Deity series on YouTube is great. Outstanding satire and criticism of beliefs in the supernatural, and of the traditional Judeo-Christian deity of the bible in particular. The videos that I found available so far include (with minutes duration of each):

From the first one, I love the line "Wait for Lou" towards the end (ouch!), and also the final reference, to a singer... classic!

The second is kinda slow, not as funny until the end... and then there is a great twist!

The other three are pretty good too -- the last one, the press conference, has a lot of humor packed into it, so you might need to watch that one twice!

Thanks a lot to Stephen Hicks for putting me on to these videos!

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Neurosurgeons Shrug

The Jan. 29 - Feb. 5 issue of Us News and World Report had an interesting article "Get me a Neurosurgeon, Stat!". It details the increasing reasons that high-end medical specialist, such neurosurgeons, are opting out of the traditional hospital on-call systems. Examples are given that indicate this is a life-and-death issue -- if a specialist is not available at a hospital, or if one is located too late, people die.

While the reasons for specialists leaving the profession -- or at least adjusting how, when, and where they are willing to work -- are many and complicated, the summary of the problems is given as "too much work, too little pay, and the fear of malpractice lawsuits." At a more detailed level, the article notes that the 1986 federal Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act, which was enacted to prevent "discrimination" against the poor, has had the effect of requiring specialists of all kinds to be on call all the time. It also led hospitals to pressure doctors to provide these services for free, in exchange for being given facilities to perform their for-pay practices. But as more and more doctors can now do their paying practices in their own facilities, they no longer need to be attached to hospitals -- and so many are opting out.

The malpractice lawsuits aspect is interesting too. When a doctor builds up a history with a patient, there is much lower chance of getting sued. But with complete strangers as patients in the ER, and the often frantic nature of the ER, the odds of lawsuits arising from mistakes is much higher. So many doctors have decided to stop taking ER calls, or they might limit the types of calls they'll take -- e.g., a neurosurgeon who will not do brain surgery but who focuses on the spine instead.

The final paragraph is thereore not surprising:
Experts believe things are likely to get worse before they get better, with emergency docs continuing to scramble—they grimly call it "dialing for doctors"—to find specialists to help people like Elsie Bishop. Says Taylor: "The American public has no idea how dangerous it has become to get sick or injured at the wrong time."

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Tuesday, February 13, 2007

The Colors of India

My friend and colleague Basia Kruszewska has recently compiled together over a hundred photographs from her travels in India and other Asian countries. They are arranged by color... that is, by the significant color in each image. To start the photo tour, start with Red. Then you can click on each color box at the top of the page to see the other colors' pages. Good stuff!

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Sunday, February 11, 2007

A Blog for WHS Team

It was exactly one month ago that I blogged at length about Windows Home Server, a product that Microsoft will be coming out with later this year that I am, suffice to say, very excited about.

Since the WHS team at Microsoft has started up its own blog. This is the description of it from the first post in late January:
The Windows Home Server team is eager to share news, insights and information about our product. And we're equally eager to hear your thoughts and feedback. This blog will include contributions from the product management team, development team, support team and the marketing team.

Sounds good to me. There is some good info there already, though not really anything I didn't summarize in my long posting from a month ago.

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Saturday, February 10, 2007

Venezuela Blogger from the Inside

This morning I posted my thoughts on the recent news of food shortages, and other major problems, that are increasing in Venezuela as a result of Hugo Chavez' socialist and rights-violating policies. If you haven't read that post yet, do so before continuing with this one...

Then notice the anonymous comment I was sent to that posting. Here it is in full for your convenience:
"Im glad to find an article that tells reality and dont just celebrate Mr Chavez socialist project because it "helps the poor"..You said at the end "90 minutes turns into 4 hours, and it won't be fixed until 2010 at the earliest. When will the majority of people in Venezuela figure out it doesn't have to be this way?".. and for now, i must tell you the answer is No.... About your predictions well im thinking of buying candles and stuff. I think you will find interesting to read my blog (just started makin it, so it looks like crap now but anyways) and would be interesting to keep a discussion / reflection about this events with a foreigner. Anyways my blog is... http//antipatrioticvenezuelan.blogspot.com "
Even with the poor English, her meaning is clear. It turns out she is a college student desperate to finish her major, and hopefully leave her rapidly deteriorating country.

Next, I encourage you to check out her new blog at antipatrioticvenezuelan.blogspot.com. She speaks of difficulties concentrating on her studies, the recent food shortages, the rigged elections in her country, and much more. Her posting "Too late" ends quite passionately: "too late my friends, just too late." Her posting "Why Im Against?" includes this: "I am, after all, an intelectual, so everyday is more hard for me to see how my country collapsed, and how I lose my freedom."And be sure to read her first posting (bottom of her blog page) titled "So do we". Powerful stuff!

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Best Movie Weapons

The November issue of Wired Magazine had a brief article Supercool Weapons from Movies. Here they give their top-1o list, and some of my favorites from their list include:
  • (1) the double-bladed lightsaber from Star Wars 1: The Phantom Menace
  • (3) the glaive from Krull
  • (4) Inigo Montoya's father's sword from The Princess Bride
  • (5) Proton Pack from Ghostbusters
  • (10) M41A pulse ri