More Baseball HOF Probability Considerations

Local sports columnist Bob Matthews today updated his probability ratings for active players as to whether they will make the baseball Hall of Fame or not. I agree with most of his assessments. A few disagreements and other comments:

• I'm not sure that I'd quite rate Vladimir Guerrero as a 100% lock to make it. If he has just one or two more seasons, then yes. But as of today, maybe not quite. If Bob's assessment had that as an assumption, then fine.
• I'd put Vlad in a 75-99% category, something Bob didn't have. And with him I'd bump up Chipper Jones, instead of having him along with Jeff Kent and Lance Berkman at only 51-75 percent chance. In fact, I'd rate Jones just ahead of Guerrero if they both retired today.
• I'd also bump up Gary Sheffield from the 25-50% category to at least 51-75%, or perhaps 75-99%.
• If Hanley Ramirez is considered "Well on his way", then I should think Jose Reyes is too, as opposed to "Too early to gauge".
• I was glad to see Carlos Delgado and Jim Edmonds in the "Nice career, but no chance" category -- I fear they will have their supporters, but I don't think they are HOFers. I agree with all the other hitters he mentioned there too.
• As with hitters, I think a 76-99% category is needed, and in it I'd put John Smoltz. His Eckersley-like SP/RP combination is unique enough that I think he is nearly a lock.
• I'd switch Roy Oswalt and Billy Wagner, and have the latter in the 25-50 percent category and the former in the 1-25% category.
• And I'm glad to see him put Schilling and Mussina in the 25-50% category, though if Mussina can pitch again next year like he is this year, he'll become closer to a lock.
• As he turns 33 tomorrow, I don't consider Tim Hudson to be "Well on his way", but closer to "Nice career, but no chance". I think his best days are behind him.
• And ditto for Mark Buehrle, who is now 29, has never won 20 games, is not an exciting strikeout pitcher, and has a lifetime 3.79 ERA. I don't consider him to be "Well on his way".