Ten Old-Timers Nominated for the HOF

The Baseball Hall of Fame recently announced the ten candidates for election via the Veterans Committee this December: Carl Mays, Allie Reynolds, Wes Ferrell, Bucky Walters, Bill Dahlen, Vern Stephens, Sherry Magee, Deacon White, Mickey Vernon, Joe Gordon. These players are all pre-1943 players, and they must get 75% of the vote to be inducted.

My local newspaper's sports editor, Bob Mathews, wrote a column advocating for Wes Ferrell and Allie Reynolds. To me, none of the ten candidates seem clearly better or clearly worse than of any of the others -- and none immediately struck me as players who should have been in the HOF long ago, and to me, that is what the Veterans Committee is mostly for: righting wrongs, for electing players who for whatever reasons were wrongly passed over via the normal election process.

But I knew I'd enjoy considering these players a bit more closely, so here goes. First, I'll start with a brief summary of what I consider each player's main accomplishments to be:

Pitchers:

• Carl Mays -- Played from 1915-1929. Five 20+ win seasons, lifetime 207-126 record (.622), 2.92 ERA vs. 3.49 league ERA, never led league in ERA, only led league in Wins once (27 in 1921).


• Allie Reynolds -- Played from 1942-1954. Only one 20+ win season, lifetime 182-107 record (.630), 3.30 ERA vs. 3.63 league ERA, a strong 7-2 in postseason play for the Yankees, six-time all-star, led league in ERA in 1952 with 2.06 and was MVP runner-up that year, never led the league in wins, led the league in strikeouts twice during strikeout-deficient era with 151 in 1943 and 160 in 1952.


• Wes Ferrell -- Played from 1927-1941. Six-time 20+ win seasons, lifetime 193-128 record (.601), 4.04 ERA vs. 4.70 league ERA, walked more hitters than he struckout (1040 vs. 985, in 2,623 IP), two-time all-star, never led the league in ERA, led the league in wins once (25 in 1935), led league in CG four times, famous for being a good-hitting pitcher as he hit 38 HR and batted .280 over 1,176 at-bats in his career.


• Bucky Walters -- Played from 1934-1950. Three 20+ win seasons, lifetime 198-160 record (.553), 3.30 ERA vs. 3.80 league ERA, six-time all-star, won the pitching triple crown in 1939 with a 2.29 ERA, 27 wins, and 137 strikeouts, thereby earning the MVP award. He also led in ERA (2.48) and wins (22) the following season.

Batters:

• Bill Dahlen -- Shortstop who played from 1891-1911. Scored 100+ runs in his first six seasons, stole 547 in his career, but had only a .272 BA vs. .277 league average. Never led the league in any offensive category except, surprisingly, RBI in 1904 with 80. A very good fielder for his day.


• Joe Gordon -- Second Basemen who played from 1938-1950, but missed 1944 and 1945 to the war. Had 100+ Runs twice and 100+ RBI four times. Hit 17-32 HR every year except once, but only batted .268 vs. .271 league average. Was an all-star in nine of his eleven seasons. Edged out Ted Williams in a close vote for the 1942 MVP award with 18 HR, 103 RBI, and a .322 average.


• Sherry Magee -- Outfielder who played from 1904-1919. Had 100+ runs twice and 100+ RBI twice. Had 441 SB in career, and a .291 average vs. .260 league average. Won league batting title in 1910 hitting .331. Was often amongst league leaders in HR during this dead-ball era, and led the NL in RBI four times.


• Vern Stephens -- Shortstop who played from 1941-1955. Had 100+ Runs three times and 100+ RBI four times, including 1948-1950 when he did both. Those three seasons were very strong, as he hit 29, 39, and 30 HR, and had 137, 159, and 144 RBI. Lifetime .286 average vs. .272 league average. 8-time all-star, and was often amongst the MVP contenders, though never got higher than third in the vote.


• Mickey Vernon -- First Basemen who played from 1939-1960, but missed 1944 and 1945 to the war. His best season was 1953 when he came in third in the MVP vote, topped 100 Runs and 100 RBI for the only time in his career, had 205 hits, 15 HR, and led the league with a .337 average. His other superstar season was much earlier, in 1946 when he led the league with a .353 average. Lifetime .286 BA vs. .264 league average. Seven-time all-star.


• Deacon White -- Old-timer who played mostly third base and catcher, from 1871-1890. He had little power or speed, but hit .312 vs. a .266 leaguge average. He led his league in BA twice: .367 in 1875 and .387 in 1877.

Now I'll consider these players from various common metrics used in arguments regarding the Hall of Fame.

Black Ink (explanation)
This measures how often the player led his league in key categories. As such, it doesn't consider positional differences, and favors players with shorter superstar careers over players with longer pretty good careers.

For pitchers, an average HOFer has about 40:

• Bucky Walters 48
• Wes Ferrell 25
• Carl Mays 23
• Allie Reynolds 18

For batters, an average HOFer has about 27:

• Sherry Magee 35
• Deaon White 28
• Vern Stephens 18
• Mickey Vernon 14
• Bill Dahlen 4
• Joe Gordon 2

So according to Black Ink, Magee and White standout amongst the hitters. And his isn't surprising because it was easier to do well on Gray Ink in the early days when there were fewer teams. Bucky Walters is way ahead of the other three pitchers, and that is because of his two truly outstanding seasons (1939-1940).

Gray Ink (explanation)
This measures how often the player was amongst the league leaders (top ten) in various key categories.

For pitchers, an average HOFer has about 185:

• Carl Mays 172
• Wes Ferrell 170
• Allie Reynolds 161
• Bucky Walters 152

For batters, an average HOFer has about 144:

• Sherry Magee 210
• Deacon White 178
• Mickey Vernon 149
• Vern Stephens 141
• Joe Gordon 111
• Bill Dahlen 96

So according to Gray Ink, only Magee and White standout as candidates (again, not surprising).

HOF Standards (explanation)
A way to measure players based on career statistics, based on various milestones reached.

For pitchers, an average HOFer has about 50:

• Carl Mays 44
• Allie Reynolds 33
• Wes Ferrell 33
• Bucky Walters 28

For batters, an average HOFer has about 50:

• Bill Dahlen 45
• Vern Stephens 36
• Sherry Magee 35
• Deacon White 35
• Mickey Vernon 33
• Joe Gordon 30

So according to HOF Standards, all of the ten candidates would be "below average Hall of Famers", though Mays and Dahlen are way ahead of the other guys.

HOF Monitor (explanation)
Another metric attempting to measure various HOF qualities in players, both single-season accomplishments and career milestones.

For pitchers, a likely HOFer has greater than 100:

• Carl Mays 114
• Allie Reynolds 110
• Bucky Walters 105
• Wes Ferrell 75

For batters, a likely HOFer has greater than 100:

• Joe Gordon 88
• Bill Dahlen 79
• Vern Stephens 75
• Mickey Vernon 72
• Sherry Magee 61
• Deacon White 47

So according to HOF Monitor, Mays, Reynolds, and Walters are "likely HOFer", but none of the other guys are. Deacon White falls particularly short here.

Similarity Scores (explanation)
I'll list only the players with a 900+ similarity rating. Names in all CAPS are hall-of-famers already.

• Carl Mays -- STAN COVELESKI, Lon Warneke, CHIEF BENDER, Urban Shocker, JACK CHESBRO, Eddie Cicotte, Art Nehf, Jesse Tannehill, Babe Adams
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/reynoal01.shtml
• Allie Reynolds -- LEFTY GOMEZ, BOB LEMON, Virgil Trucks
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/ferrewe01.shtml
• Wes Ferrell -- Jack Stivetts, Sadie McMahon, Tommy Bridges, Jouett Meekin, Alvin Crowder, Brickyard Kennedy
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/waltebu01.shtml
• Bucky Walters -- Silver King, Bill Hutchison, Bob Shawkey, Joe Bush, many others...
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dahlebi01.shtml
• Bill Dahlen -- none... GEORGE DAVIS is closest at 898.
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gordojo01.shtml
• Joe Gordon -- Miguel Tejada, Jose Valentin, Bret Boone
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mageesh01.shtml
• Sherry Magee -- none... Wally Moses is the closest at 899.
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/stephve01.shtml
• Vern Stephens -- Miguel Tejada, GABBY HARTNETT, TONY LAZZERI, BOBBY DOERR, Bret Boone
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/v/vernomi01.shtml
• Mickey Vernon -- Mark Grace
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/whitede01.shtml
• Deacon White -- Jack Glasscock

Win Shares
This is the system that Bill James came up with several years ago, and detailed in a book by the same name.

• Bucky Walters 258 -- Compare with Bucky Walters 258, Don Drysdale 258, Jim Bunning 257, Luis Tiant 256. As noted earlier, he had three great years, which had WS values of 38, 32, 32.
• Carl Mays 256 -- Compare with the same players as Walters above. His top seasons were 35, 30, 27.
• Wes Ferrell 233 -- Compare with Mel Harder 234, Jesse Tannehill 233, Bob Lemon 232, George Uhl 231. His top seasons were 35, 32, 28.
• Allie Reynolds 170 -- his best three seasons were only 24, 19, 17.
• Bill Dahlen 393 -- This rates him 4th all-time amongst shortstops, behind only Wagner, Yount, and Ripken. His average per 162 isn't nearly as good, and his best single-season was 32.
• Sherry Magee 354 -- compare with Ed Delahanty 355, Goose Goslin 355, Lou Brock 348. His top seasons were 38 and 36.
• Mickey Vernon 296 -- Compare with George Sisler 292, Ed Konetchy 287, Boog Powell 282. His top seasons were 33, 29, 29. His average per 162 is relatively low at 19.91, which is lower than Bob Watson, Cecil Cooper, and a great many other 1B.
• Vern Stephens 265 -- compare with Dave Concepcion 269, Herman Long 265, Jim Fregosi 261. Doesn't look good, but his average per 162 is 24.96, which is better than many big names like Ripken, Yount, Banks, and others, though his best season was only 34.
• Joe Gordon 242 -- Compare with Jim Gilliam 247, Del Pratt 242, Dick McAuliffe 241, Dave Lopes 240 -- doesn't sound good, but remember he had a short career. His best seasons were 31, 28, 26.
• Deacon White 190 -- compare with Fred Lindstrom 192, Bob Bailey 190, Denny Lyons 189, Puddin' Head Jones 188, Milt Stock 187. His best season was only 21.

Michael Hoban's NEWS ratings
This metric builds on Bill James' Win Shares system, but gives more weight to a players best 10 seasons. The idea being that a short brilliant career should be given a bonus over a very long good career when considering players for the Hall of Fame. See his writeup for these ten players.

According to his system, Magee and Dahlen deserve to be in the HOF, but Stephens, Vernon, Gordon, and White do not (he seems to have omitted White from his writeup, but I'm pretty sure White wouldn't qualify). For pitchers, Mays rates highest, but Ferrell and Walters are not far behind. Only Allie Reynolds comes up short using this HOF metric.

Bill James Ranking (2001)
These rankings are by position, and from his book The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract.

• Carl Mays -- 38th amongst pitchers, after Dazzy Vance, Hal Newhouser, and Goose Gossage, and just before Bert Blyleven, Wes Ferrell, and Joe McGinnity.
• Wes Ferrell -- 40th amongst pitchers, after Goose Gossage, Carl Mays, and Bert Blyleven, and just before Joe McGinnity, John Clarkson, and Lon Warneke.
• Bucky Walters -- 69th amongst pitchers, after Ron Guidry, Lefty Gomez, and Dan Quisenberry, and just before Carl Griffith, Urban Shocker, and Mickey Lolich.
• Allie Reynolds -- not in his top 100 pitchers.
• Joe Gordon -- 16th amongst Second Basemen, just after Lou Whitaker, Billy Herman, and Nellie Fox, and before Willie Randolph, Bobby Doerr, and Tony Lazzeri.
• Sherry Magee -- 21st amongst Left-Fielders, just after Monte Irvin, Frank Howard, and Albert Belle, and before Fred Clarke, Zack Wheat, and Jimmy Sheckard.
• Bill Dahlen -- 21st amongst Shortstops, just after Hughie Jennings, Maury Wills and Johnny Pesky, and before Vern Stephens, Joe Sewell, and Tony Fernandez.
• Vern Stephens -- 22nd amongst Shortstops, just after Maury Wills, Johnny Pesky, and Bill Dahlen, and before Joe Sewell, Tony Fernandez, and Bert Campaneris.
• Mickey Vernon -- 23rd amongst First-Basemen, just after Norm Cash, Fred McGriff, and Roger Connor, and before George Sisler, Frank Chance, and Bill Terry.
• Deacon White -- 76th amongst Third Basemen, just after Don Hoak, Jim Hart, and Pepper Martin, and before Kevin Seitzer, Billy Werber, and Bob Bailey.

In the end, I wouldn't strongly advocate for any of these players to be elected. Here is how I would personally rank them though:

• Carl Mays
• Bill Dahlen
• Sherry Magee
• Wes Ferrell
• Bucky Walters
• Joe Gordon
• Vern Stephens
• Mickey Vernon
• Allie Reynolds
• Deacon White

I consider the last three here to be particularly not worthy. The other seven are pretty close, so I would find it hard to vote one in and not the others.