Triple Crown Winner in the NL in 2009?

For readers interested in baseball, I've written another posting at Seamheads.com, titled: Triple Crown Winner in the NL in 2009?

Could Ichiro Suzuki Break the All-Time Hit Record?

For baseball fans who read this blog, know that I just wrote another post over at Seamheads.com:

Could Ichiro Suzuki Break the All-Time Hit Record?

On Randy Johnson: Will he be the last to win 300 in the Majors?

For baseball fans who read this blog, know that I just wrote another post over at Seamheads.com:

On Randy Johnson: Will he be the last to win 300 in the Majors?

Thoughts on the Early All-Star Game Fan Voting

I just wrote a new posting over at Seamheads.com, the site where I do my baseball blog writing:

• Thoughts on the Early All-Star Game Fan Voting

On Pujols and Gehrig

I don't blog here much anymore about baseball, and that is because I do my baseball writing over at seamheads.com these days.

But I did want to just mention the excellent column from my local sportswriter Bob Matthews, "Pujols Gains on Gehrig's Greatness". He compares Pujols first 8 seasons with Gehrig's first 8, and then reasonably projects Pujols' career numbers (or at least, 16-year career numbers). The conclusion is that so far, Pujols stacks up quite nicely with Gehrig. The point is, most people when asked who the greatest 1B of all time is will say Lou Gehrig -- perhaps no other position has such a clear-cut answer (Honus Wagner at shortstop might be just as obvious). But if Pujols continues to play at such a high level, and without any whiff of steroid controversy, then the discussion of MLB's all-time greatest first-baseman could one day get difficult.

Tim Teufel Statue

I found this brief item from the Onion to by kinda funny. Baseball fans, esp. Mets fans, will get the humor here.

The 2009 Hall of Fame Results

Congratulations to Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice on their election into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Rickey was an obvious first-ballot hall-of-famer, as by many measures he is the greatest leadoff hitter of all time, and he indisputably the all-time stolen-base king. Jim Rice was just as obviously a marginal candidate, as indicated by his only making it in this his 15th and final year on the ballot.

For much more on this election, see this great post from Mike Lynch at Seamheads.com. Not only does he provide the actual voting results, but he also compares this with the voting of the members of the Seamheads group at Facebook (some 250+ voted). A third table shows the direct comparison of the two sets of votes. Interestingly, the Seamheads voters didn't think Rice was deserving, rating him sixth amongst this year's candidates with only 39.1% of the vote. They also didn't think much of Andrew Dawson, who gets 41.9% of their vote as compared with 67% by the real voters. On the flipside, I think the Seamheads voters are clearly correct to support Tim Raines more heavily: 58.1% vs. the pitiful 22.6% the real voters gave him.

Woman Finds 139-Year Old Baseball Card

I just did a blog posting over at Seamheads.com titled Quite a Find: A Piece of History. Enjoy!

On Switch Hitters: Chipper's Place and the Issue of Speed

In early 2007 I blogged here on the topic of all-time switch-hitters. Specifically, the blog posting’s focus was on Switch Hitters and Speed .

Given the continued hitting excellence of Chipper Jones, I thought I’d update this posting and give my question about the connection between switch hitting and speed a broader audience over at Seamheads: Switch Hitters: Chipper's Place and the Issue of Speed.

On the Triple Crown

For my readers who are baseball fans, know that I've just authored another blog posting at Seamheads, this one titled: The Triple Crown, plus OBP, plus More?

On the Ten Post-1942 Old-Timers Nominated for the HOF

My first new baseball writing for Seamheads.com is the posting I did today titled "On the Ten Post-1942 Old-Timers Nominated for the HOF". (This essay is similar to my writing on the pre-1943 candidates here.)

I'm now writing for Seamheads.com

I am pleased to announce that I am now a writer for Seamheads.com, a popular baseball blog site. Going forward, most of my baseball blog postings will appear, with just a brief note here at Philosopher Stone linking to those postings. I will also re-publish some of my past baseball writings from here over at Seamheads. (For instance, I did that for my 9/15 posting here on the ten Pre-1943 Old-Timers nominated for the HOF, which is now included at Seamheads here.)

The Other New Yankee Stadium

Humor site The Onion has a great video about another new Yankee stadium in the works. Good stuff.

The Power of the Marlins Infield

For the first time in major league baseball history, a team has all four of its infielders hit 25 or more HR each. The Marlins accomplished this feat recently; see the Miami Herald story. With a few weeks left to play, 1B Mike Jacobs leads the team with 32 HR, 2B Dan Uggla has 30, SS Hanley Ramirez has 30, and 3B Jorge Cantu has 26. Last year they had three of the four postions over 25 HR (Uggla, Ramirez, and Miguel Cabrera at 3B), but Mike Jacobs only played 114 games and hit only 17 HR.

According to the Herald article, prior to this year only five teams had 20+ HR for each of their four infielders:

• 1940 Red Sox
• 1986 Tigers
• 1996 Orioles
• 2004 Rangers
• 2005 Rangers

However, Brian Wood, a fellow SABR member, was able to confirm that according to Retrosheet two of 3B Darnell Coles' 20 HRs for the 1986 Tigers were as a DH, and three of 3B B.J. Surhoff's 21 HRs for the 1996 Orioles were not as a third baseman (1 as a DH and 2 as a LF).

As if the above feat by the 2008 Marlins wasn't enough, they have also now joined only the 2001 Athletics as teams with three infielders with 30+ HR. The 2001 Athletics had Jason Giambi (38), Erich Chavez (32) and SS Miguel Tejada (31).

Ten Old-Timers Nominated for the HOF

The Baseball Hall of Fame recently announced the ten candidates for election via the Veterans Committee this December: Carl Mays, Allie Reynolds, Wes Ferrell, Bucky Walters, Bill Dahlen, Vern Stephens, Sherry Magee, Deacon White, Mickey Vernon, Joe Gordon. These players are all pre-1943 players, and they must get 75% of the vote to be inducted.

My local newspaper's sports editor, Bob Mathews, wrote a column advocating for Wes Ferrell and Allie Reynolds. To me, none of the ten candidates seem clearly better or clearly worse than of any of the others -- and none immediately struck me as players who should have been in the HOF long ago, and to me, that is what the Veterans Committee is mostly for: righting wrongs, for electing players who for whatever reasons were wrongly passed over via the normal election process.

But I knew I'd enjoy considering these players a bit more closely, so here goes. First, I'll start with a brief summary of what I consider each player's main accomplishments to be:

Pitchers:

• Carl Mays -- Played from 1915-1929. Five 20+ win seasons, lifetime 207-126 record (.622), 2.92 ERA vs. 3.49 league ERA, never led league in ERA, only led league in Wins once (27 in 1921).


• Allie Reynolds -- Played from 1942-1954. Only one 20+ win season, lifetime 182-107 record (.630), 3.30 ERA vs. 3.63 league ERA, a strong 7-2 in postseason play for the Yankees, six-time all-star, led league in ERA in 1952 with 2.06 and was MVP runner-up that year, never led the league in wins, led the league in strikeouts twice during strikeout-deficient era with 151 in 1943 and 160 in 1952.


• Wes Ferrell -- Played from 1927-1941. Six-time 20+ win seasons, lifetime 193-128 record (.601), 4.04 ERA vs. 4.70 league ERA, walked more hitters than he struckout (1040 vs. 985, in 2,623 IP), two-time all-star, never led the league in ERA, led the league in wins once (25 in 1935), led league in CG four times, famous for being a good-hitting pitcher as he hit 38 HR and batted .280 over 1,176 at-bats in his career.


• Bucky Walters -- Played from 1934-1950. Three 20+ win seasons, lifetime 198-160 record (.553), 3.30 ERA vs. 3.80 league ERA, six-time all-star, won the pitching triple crown in 1939 with a 2.29 ERA, 27 wins, and 137 strikeouts, thereby earning the MVP award. He also led in ERA (2.48) and wins (22) the following season.

Batters:

• Bill Dahlen -- Shortstop who played from 1891-1911. Scored 100+ runs in his first six seasons, stole 547 in his career, but had only a .272 BA vs. .277 league average. Never led the league in any offensive category except, surprisingly, RBI in 1904 with 80. A very good fielder for his day.


• Joe Gordon -- Second Basemen who played from 1938-1950, but missed 1944 and 1945 to the war. Had 100+ Runs twice and 100+ RBI four times. Hit 17-32 HR every year except once, but only batted .268 vs. .271 league average. Was an all-star in nine of his eleven seasons. Edged out Ted Williams in a close vote for the 1942 MVP award with 18 HR, 103 RBI, and a .322 average.


• Sherry Magee -- Outfielder who played from 1904-1919. Had 100+ runs twice and 100+ RBI twice. Had 441 SB in career, and a .291 average vs. .260 league average. Won league batting title in 1910 hitting .331. Was often amongst league leaders in HR during this dead-ball era, and led the NL in RBI four times.


• Vern Stephens -- Shortstop who played from 1941-1955. Had 100+ Runs three times and 100+ RBI four times, including 1948-1950 when he did both. Those three seasons were very strong, as he hit 29, 39, and 30 HR, and had 137, 159, and 144 RBI. Lifetime .286 average vs. .272 league average. 8-time all-star, and was often amongst the MVP contenders, though never got higher than third in the vote.


• Mickey Vernon -- First Basemen who played from 1939-1960, but missed 1944 and 1945 to the war. His best season was 1953 when he came in third in the MVP vote, topped 100 Runs and 100 RBI for the only time in his career, had 205 hits, 15 HR, and led the league with a .337 average. His other superstar season was much earlier, in 1946 when he led the league with a .353 average. Lifetime .286 BA vs. .264 league average. Seven-time all-star.


• Deacon White -- Old-timer who played mostly third base and catcher, from 1871-1890. He had little power or speed, but hit .312 vs. a .266 leaguge average. He led his league in BA twice: .367 in 1875 and .387 in 1877.

Now I'll consider these players from various common metrics used in arguments regarding the Hall of Fame.

Black Ink (explanation)
This measures how often the player led his league in key categories. As such, it doesn't consider positional differences, and favors players with shorter superstar careers over players with longer pretty good careers.

For pitchers, an average HOFer has about 40:

• Bucky Walters 48
• Wes Ferrell 25
• Carl Mays 23
• Allie Reynolds 18

For batters, an average HOFer has about 27:

• Sherry Magee 35
• Deaon White 28
• Vern Stephens 18
• Mickey Vernon 14
• Bill Dahlen 4
• Joe Gordon 2

So according to Black Ink, Magee and White standout amongst the hitters. And his isn't surprising because it was easier to do well on Gray Ink in the early days when there were fewer teams. Bucky Walters is way ahead of the other three pitchers, and that is because of his two truly outstanding seasons (1939-1940).

Gray Ink (explanation)
This measures how often the player was amongst the league leaders (top ten) in various key categories.

For pitchers, an average HOFer has about 185:

• Carl Mays 172
• Wes Ferrell 170
• Allie Reynolds 161
• Bucky Walters 152

For batters, an average HOFer has about 144:

• Sherry Magee 210
• Deacon White 178
• Mickey Vernon 149
• Vern Stephens 141
• Joe Gordon 111
• Bill Dahlen 96

So according to Gray Ink, only Magee and White standout as candidates (again, not surprising).

HOF Standards (explanation)
A way to measure players based on career statistics, based on various milestones reached.

For pitchers, an average HOFer has about 50:

• Carl Mays 44
• Allie Reynolds 33
• Wes Ferrell 33
• Bucky Walters 28

For batters, an average HOFer has about 50:

• Bill Dahlen 45
• Vern Stephens 36
• Sherry Magee 35
• Deacon White 35
• Mickey Vernon 33
• Joe Gordon 30

So according to HOF Standards, all of the ten candidates would be "below average Hall of Famers", though Mays and Dahlen are way ahead of the other guys.

HOF Monitor (explanation)
Another metric attempting to measure various HOF qualities in players, both single-season accomplishments and career milestones.

For pitchers, a likely HOFer has greater than 100:

• Carl Mays 114
• Allie Reynolds 110
• Bucky Walters 105
• Wes Ferrell 75

For batters, a likely HOFer has greater than 100:

• Joe Gordon 88
• Bill Dahlen 79
• Vern Stephens 75
• Mickey Vernon 72
• Sherry Magee 61
• Deacon White 47

So according to HOF Monitor, Mays, Reynolds, and Walters are "likely HOFer", but none of the other guys are. Deacon White falls particularly short here.

Similarity Scores (explanation)
I'll list only the players with a 900+ similarity rating. Names in all CAPS are hall-of-famers already.

• Carl Mays -- STAN COVELESKI, Lon Warneke, CHIEF BENDER, Urban Shocker, JACK CHESBRO, Eddie Cicotte, Art Nehf, Jesse Tannehill, Babe Adams
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/reynoal01.shtml
• Allie Reynolds -- LEFTY GOMEZ, BOB LEMON, Virgil Trucks
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/ferrewe01.shtml
• Wes Ferrell -- Jack Stivetts, Sadie McMahon, Tommy Bridges, Jouett Meekin, Alvin Crowder, Brickyard Kennedy
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/waltebu01.shtml
• Bucky Walters -- Silver King, Bill Hutchison, Bob Shawkey, Joe Bush, many others...
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dahlebi01.shtml
• Bill Dahlen -- none... GEORGE DAVIS is closest at 898.
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gordojo01.shtml
• Joe Gordon -- Miguel Tejada, Jose Valentin, Bret Boone
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mageesh01.shtml
• Sherry Magee -- none... Wally Moses is the closest at 899.
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/stephve01.shtml
• Vern Stephens -- Miguel Tejada, GABBY HARTNETT, TONY LAZZERI, BOBBY DOERR, Bret Boone
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/v/vernomi01.shtml
• Mickey Vernon -- Mark Grace
  http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/whitede01.shtml
• Deacon White -- Jack Glasscock

Win Shares
This is the system that Bill James came up with several years ago, and detailed in a book by the same name.

• Bucky Walters 258 -- Compare with Bucky Walters 258, Don Drysdale 258, Jim Bunning 257, Luis Tiant 256. As noted earlier, he had three great years, which had WS values of 38, 32, 32.
• Carl Mays 256 -- Compare with the same players as Walters above. His top seasons were 35, 30, 27.
• Wes Ferrell 233 -- Compare with Mel Harder 234, Jesse Tannehill 233, Bob Lemon 232, George Uhl 231. His top seasons were 35, 32, 28.
• Allie Reynolds 170 -- his best three seasons were only 24, 19, 17.
• Bill Dahlen 393 -- This rates him 4th all-time amongst shortstops, behind only Wagner, Yount, and Ripken. His average per 162 isn't nearly as good, and his best single-season was 32.
• Sherry Magee 354 -- compare with Ed Delahanty 355, Goose Goslin 355, Lou Brock 348. His top seasons were 38 and 36.
• Mickey Vernon 296 -- Compare with George Sisler 292, Ed Konetchy 287, Boog Powell 282. His top seasons were 33, 29, 29. His average per 162 is relatively low at 19.91, which is lower than Bob Watson, Cecil Cooper, and a great many other 1B.
• Vern Stephens 265 -- compare with Dave Concepcion 269, Herman Long 265, Jim Fregosi 261. Doesn't look good, but his average per 162 is 24.96, which is better than many big names like Ripken, Yount, Banks, and others, though his best season was only 34.
• Joe Gordon 242 -- Compare with Jim Gilliam 247, Del Pratt 242, Dick McAuliffe 241, Dave Lopes 240 -- doesn't sound good, but remember he had a short career. His best seasons were 31, 28, 26.
• Deacon White 190 -- compare with Fred Lindstrom 192, Bob Bailey 190, Denny Lyons 189, Puddin' Head Jones 188, Milt Stock 187. His best season was only 21.

Michael Hoban's NEWS ratings
This metric builds on Bill James' Win Shares system, but gives more weight to a players best 10 seasons. The idea being that a short brilliant career should be given a bonus over a very long good career when considering players for the Hall of Fame. See his writeup for these ten players.

According to his system, Magee and Dahlen deserve to be in the HOF, but Stephens, Vernon, Gordon, and White do not (he seems to have omitted White from his writeup, but I'm pretty sure White wouldn't qualify). For pitchers, Mays rates highest, but Ferrell and Walters are not far behind. Only Allie Reynolds comes up short using this HOF metric.

Bill James Ranking (2001)
These rankings are by position, and from his book The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract.

• Carl Mays -- 38th amongst pitchers, after Dazzy Vance, Hal Newhouser, and Goose Gossage, and just before Bert Blyleven, Wes Ferrell, and Joe McGinnity.
• Wes Ferrell -- 40th amongst pitchers, after Goose Gossage, Carl Mays, and Bert Blyleven, and just before Joe McGinnity, John Clarkson, and Lon Warneke.
• Bucky Walters -- 69th amongst pitchers, after Ron Guidry, Lefty Gomez, and Dan Quisenberry, and just before Carl Griffith, Urban Shocker, and Mickey Lolich.
• Allie Reynolds -- not in his top 100 pitchers.
• Joe Gordon -- 16th amongst Second Basemen, just after Lou Whitaker, Billy Herman, and Nellie Fox, and before Willie Randolph, Bobby Doerr, and Tony Lazzeri.
• Sherry Magee -- 21st amongst Left-Fielders, just after Monte Irvin, Frank Howard, and Albert Belle, and before Fred Clarke, Zack Wheat, and Jimmy Sheckard.
• Bill Dahlen -- 21st amongst Shortstops, just after Hughie Jennings, Maury Wills and Johnny Pesky, and before Vern Stephens, Joe Sewell, and Tony Fernandez.
• Vern Stephens -- 22nd amongst Shortstops, just after Maury Wills, Johnny Pesky, and Bill Dahlen, and before Joe Sewell, Tony Fernandez, and Bert Campaneris.
• Mickey Vernon -- 23rd amongst First-Basemen, just after Norm Cash, Fred McGriff, and Roger Connor, and before George Sisler, Frank Chance, and Bill Terry.
• Deacon White -- 76th amongst Third Basemen, just after Don Hoak, Jim Hart, and Pepper Martin, and before Kevin Seitzer, Billy Werber, and Bob Bailey.

In the end, I wouldn't strongly advocate for any of these players to be elected. Here is how I would personally rank them though:

• Carl Mays
• Bill Dahlen
• Sherry Magee
• Wes Ferrell
• Bucky Walters
• Joe Gordon
• Vern Stephens
• Mickey Vernon
• Allie Reynolds
• Deacon White

I consider the last three here to be particularly not worthy. The other seven are pretty close, so I would find it hard to vote one in and not the others.

Comments on Newsday's Top 100 Greats and Legends List

Newsday recently posted a piece titled: Newsday's 100: The Super Elite Hall of Fame. The idea was to grant that the MLB Hall of Fame's criteria for choosing players has not been consistent over the years (a case made by Bill James and many other writers before), so what would a list of only the truly cream of the crop look like? They decided to go for a list of just the very best 100 "greats and legends", with another 18 players listed who are not eligible for the Hall of Fame (Pete Rose and Joe Jackson plus players who have retired recently or are still active).

Since I love projects like this, I of course would like to comment on their selections. I don't have comments on the players included from the Negro Leagues, as I just don't know enough about them to have an opinion one way or the other. That said...

Players that I question being in the top 100:

• Lou Brock -- Borderline. Lots of steals, and performed great in three World Series, but also struck out a lot, had a low OBP, and was a rather poor fielder considering his speed.
• Buck Ewing -- A great 19th century catcher, but not one of the greats of all-time. In fact, he only played 100+ games in a season four times. A few years ago Bill James ranked him 17th amongst catchers.
• Bill Dickey, Carlton Fisk, Gabby Hartnett -- Borderline. They are three of the top-10 catchers of all time, so the question then becomes how many catchers do you want in your top-100 "greats" list? I say Cochrane and Campanella are in, and maybe Dickey, Fisk, and Hartnett are too, but I'm open to arguments against them here as well. And if these guys are in, why not Gary Carter? Where do you draw the line?
• Lary Doby -- A good player, but not a great one. His career numbers of .283, 253 HR, and 970 RBI don't merit being in this top 100 list. And no, he didn't lose much MLB time to the Negro Leagues early in his career, since he was only 24 when he played his first full season for the Indians.
• Jim Galvin -- No way. He lost almost as many games as he won. Although Gentile listed Galvin way to low in his top 1,000 listing, he doesn't deserve to be in a top-100 list either.
• Ozzie Smith -- Borderline. Not sure someone who was as two-dimensional as Ozzie should be in a top-100 list of "greats". Superior defense at SS, and lots of SB too, but is that enough?
• King Kelly -- One of the first 19th century stars who split time between OF and C, but I don't think he is a top-100 all-time great. He led the league in batting twice, and runs scored three times, adn was usually amongst the leaders in other categories, but that isnt' enough for me here.
• Bob Lemon -- Borderline. Yes, he had seven 20-win seasons in a span of 10 years. But he only won 207 in his career, so I question him being called a "great".
• Red Ruffing -- Definitely not a top-100 "great". He pitched for powerful Yankees clubs, so that helped him win 20 games twice and 21 games twice. But a lifetime 273-225 record, and a 3.80 ERA, doesn't qualify him for this list.
• George Sisler and Bill Terry -- Their career batting averages look worthy, but you have to consider the eras in which they played. Bill James has done that, and a few years ranked Sisler as only the 24th best 1B of all-time, and Terry as the 26th best. So that would keep them far outside of a top-100 "greats" list.
• Pie Traynor -- Definitely not. Similar to Sisler and Terry, you have to consider Traynor's .320 average relative to his era. Again, Bill James a few years ago ranked Traynor as the 15th best 3B of all time, behind the likes of Darrell Evans, Sal Bando, Ken Boyer, and Graig Nettles -- and none of these are all-time "greats".
• John Ward -- As with Galvin, I recently noted that Gentile ranked Ward a bit too low. But I also don't think he is a top-100 guy either.
• Dave Winfield -- Borderline. My main problem with including Winfield is that Newsday did also include Eddie Murray. I don't see how that makes sense.
• Early Wynn -- Definitely not. He held on a long time to get that 300th win. But a lifetime 300-244 record, and a 3.54 ERA (compared with a league ERA of 3.77) doesn't make him an all-time "great". I'd go with Jenkins, Niekro, Perry, and others before Wynn.

Here are ones Newsday considered close that I might prefer over some of the above:

• Eddie Murray -- See my comments on Winfield.
• Al Simmons -- He had 12 seasons of 100+ RBI, including his first 11 seasons. And some of those were really high totals: 151, 157, 165. True his .334 average is like Terry and Sisler and must be considered in light of his era, but I think Simmons did more than they did to earn a spot in a top 100 list.
• Paul Waner -- Similarly, I think Paul Waner probably belongs in the top 100 list. He had nine seasons of 100+ runs and while not a HR hitter, did hit 605 doubles and 191 triples. I much prefer Simmons and Waner to Sisler, Terry, and Traynor.
• Some pitchers from Newsday's "near-miss" list that I prefer over Galvin, Wynn, and Ruffing are Ed Walsh, Robin Roberts, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Fergie Jenkins.

Next, here is a list without commentary of some players who I think are at least as deserving, if not more so, of being included on the "near'miss" list, and perhaps a few of these would properly be considered top-100 "greats" (in alphabetical order):

• Frank Baker
• John Clarkson
• Sam Crawford
• Ed Delahanty
• Dennis Eckersley
• Rollie Fingers
• Johnny Mize
• Kid Nichols
• Phil Niekro
• Gaylord Perry
• Arky Vaughn

I particularly think that Nichols belongs in the top 100 way ahead of Galvin, and that Delahanty and Crawford likely should have been in the list of top-100 "greats". Bill James makes a pretty good case for Vaughn as the second-best SS of all-time, so perhaps he should be as well. The others I'm just suggesting were ommissions from the "near-miss" listing that Newsday provided.

As for current players, a few names that probably also should be mentioned in this discussion are Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Roberto Alomar, Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, and Craig Biggio.

For more discussion like this, see my recent four posts on Derek Gentile's fun book Baseball's Best 1,000: Rankings of the Skills, the Achievements, and the Performance of the Greatest Players of All Time -- the posts are here (comments on players 1-50), here (comments on players 51-100), here (comments on players 101-300), and here (comments on players 301-1000).

Placido Polanco Chokes Up All The Way

A bit of baseball humor... see this doctored-photo and headline from the Onion: Placido Polanco Chokes Up All the Way.

Comments on Baseball's Best 1,000 (Part 4)

I recently picked up the 2008 edition of Derek Gentile's fun book Baseball's Best 1,000: Rankings of the Skills, the Achievements, and the Performance of the Greatest Players of All Time. I've enjoyed reading this book, and I'm doing a series of blog posts where I comment on his selections. The first post is here (comments on players 1-50), the second is here (comments on players 51-100), and the third is here (comments on players 101-300). I recommend you read these first.

In this final post, I'll give comments on some players that I think he ranks significantly too high or too low, covering players listed from 301-1000. In the last post in this series I noted that Gentile consistently ranks good pitchers (boths starters and relievers) in the 101-300 range too low. This continued for the rest of the listing. The other consistent pattern I noted that I disagree with his Gentile's relatively high ranking of poor-hitting, longtime catchers. I won't comment on these below, but there were a couple dozen catchers who are ranked higher than I would. It is one thing to rank Bob Boone 324th and Jim Sundberg 348th, as they won loads of Gold Glove awards. No, I am talking about players like Scioscia (410), Rick Dempsey (469), Jerry Grote (498), and many, many more who I think are ranked too high.

Now for my comments on players ranked 301-1000:

• 314. Rafael Palmeiro -- His numbers (.288, 585 HR, 3020 hits, 1835 RBI), even discounted a bit relative to his era, I think justify a higher ranking. I guess if you discount them further because of the cloud of steroid use, then that would lower his spot in the list.
• 322. Chipper Jones -- Even before his impressive 2008 season, I think Chipper should be rated higher than this! He's an MVP, he's close to 400 HR, and has a career average over .300.
• 323. Joe Carter -- Too low. Gentile notes that he is one of only nine players to have had 100+ RBI in ten seasons. His 396 HR, 1445 RBI, and 231 SB I think justify ranking him closer to the likes of Rice, Murphy, and Dawson than down here below 300.
• 326. Jim Bottomley -- One can certainly argue that he is not deserving of being in the HOF. His .310 average isnt' that impressive compared with a .293 league average over his career. But I think this ranking is a bit low for someone who had 120+ RBI in five consecutive seasons and is clearly better than many listed ahead of him.
• 330. Bruce Sutter -- As I said earlier, Gentile seems to rate all of the dominant closers lower than I would.
• 332. Chuck Klein -- See Jim Bottomley and magnify my comments. He won the MVP in 1932, was runner up the year before, and was runner-up in 1933, losing to Carl Hubbell even though he took home Triple Crown honors. A lifetime .320 hitter (though relative to league average of .293), he led the league in HR four out of five years from 1929-1933, missing only in 1930 when he came in second while hitting an amazing 59 doubles. True, his numbers need to be considered in light of his era, but even so... he shouldn't be this low.
• 336. John Montgomery Ward -- A pretty unique career, I think it warrants a higher ranking. A 19th century star, Ward started out as a pitcher going 164-102 from 1878-1884, including a 47-19 record in 1879. When not pitching he'd play other positions, most often the OF, as he could hit and run well. He continued until 1894 as a SS/2B, and stole 111 bases in 1887 and 88 in 1892.
• 349. Edgar Martinez -- Granted, he mostly was a DH. Lifetime numbers of .312, 309 HR, 1261 RBI, 1219 Runs, 7 times an all-star and two batting titles... make me think he should be higher than this.
• 356. Harold Baines -- Similar arguement to Martinez: granted a lot of time spent as a DH, but his .289, 384 HR, 1628 RBI, 2866 hits are hard to argue with.
• 357. Jose Canseco -- Yet another hitter who spent a lot of time as a DH (though Jose played more games in the OF). Steroid use (and his attitude about it!) doesn't earn him any popularity, but he did have 462 HR, 1407 RBI, 200 SB, and was the first ever 40/40 club member in his 1988 MVP season. Should he really be nearly 100 spots lower than Andre Thornton? Or 50 spots below Rick Monday? I don't think so.
• 360. Don Baylor -- Again, a DH. He had 338 HR, 1276 RBI, and even 285 SB (often forgotten). Should be higher than this.
• 386. Al Spalding -- Hard to rank him, because he pitched in the 1870s and had a short career. But considering where Koufax and Dean are ranked, I think Spalding should be higher. Afterall, he had an incredible 253-65 record for a .796 winning percentage. And of course that is from just 6 full seasons in which he led the league in wins every year with totals of 19, 38, 41, 52, 55, and 47. He won the ERA title twice, and was second three times.
• 396. Catfish Hunter -- A lifetime record of 224-166 and a 3.26 ERA, with five consecutive 20+ win seasons. One Cy Young Award and a 10-2 record in the postseason add to his resume, one that I think earns him a higher ranking than nearly 400th! I mean, is he really worse than Dave Cash (390) and only one better than Carney Lansford (397)?
• 402. Tom Glavine -- I think Glavine should be even higher than Catfish, given his two Cy Young Awards and six-times appearing in the top 3 in the voting. He now is a 300 game winner and a 10-time all-star. How is he ranked this low, a mere three spots ahead of Don Buford? Gimme a break!
• 406. Andres Gallaraga -- Kinda similar to the DHs I mentioned earlier, The Big Cat struck out a lot but also hit .288 with 399 HR, 1425 RBI over his career, and led his league in BA once, HR once, RBI twice, and took home two Gold Gloves. He is really only two spots better than Toby Harrah, and six ahead of Doug DeCinces?
• 419. Curt Schilling -- I'm not yet an advocate of him for the HOF, but I think this is a bit low.
• 458. Juan Gonzalez -- How is a two-time MVP, who led his league in HR in two *other* seasons, ranked this low? Career numbers include .295, 434 HR, 1404 RBI. I have one question for Mr. Gentile: How can you rank Gonzalez this low, but Albert Belle all the way up at 148? Shouldn't they be much closer to each other?
• 474. Bill Buckner -- Compare him with Mark Grace. Why is Grace ranked at 212, and Buckner all the way down at 474?
• 480. Tommy John -- I think 288 career wins deserves a higher spot than this.
• 486. Jim Kaat -- Ditto, as Kaat won 283 games. I agree John and Kaat should be near each other in an all-time ranking like this, but they should both be higher. Kaat has the added distinction of winning an amazing 16 Gold Glove awards.
• 500. Lee Smith -- I'm not sure where I'd rank Lee Smith, as I don't consider him in the class of Gossage, Fingers, Sutter and a few others. And he is no longer the all-time saves leader. But again, Gentile ranks too many great closers too low, so I'd likely have him higher than this.
• 501. Mariano Rivera -- And speaking of relievers, Mo must be higher than this! Mariano is arguably the greatest reliever of all time.
• 507. Larry Walker -- A great hitter (.313, 383 HR, 1311 RBI, 230 SB) and a great fielder (7 Gold Gloves), Walker should be much higher than this. He won an MVP in 1997.
• 513. Rollie Fingers -- I don't get this at all. How is Fingers this low? And how is he this far below Gossage and Sutter, and then ranked below even Lee Smith? Look at his numbers relative to the 70s and early 80s!
• Roy Smalley (525), Rick Burleseon (530), Bill Doran (532) -- There are lots of players I've been skipping over (most of all light-hitting catchers) that I could have commented on that I think are too high relative to others near them in the list. Here are three such middle-infielders -- are these guys really this close to Walker and Fingers? Are they better than fellow middle-infielder Jeff Kent (534)? No way.
• 539. Dan Quisenberry -- My favorite pitcher of all time should be higher than this, though I agree he should appear after the top guys (Gossage, Fingers, Rivera, and Sutter).
• 555. Frank McCormick -- an MVP and nine-time All-Star should be higher than Robby Thompson (551), whose .257, 119 HR, 458 RBI, 1187 Hits are not very impressive.
• 557. Jake Beckley -- He had 2,930 hits, batted .308, and stole 315 bases. Most of all, he had 234 triples (fourth all-time). He should be higher than this.
• 572. Tom Tresh -- Yes, he won a Gold Glove and ROY. But would he be this high if he hadn't been on the Yankees for most of his short career? I doubt it -- this is too high for a career.245 hitter with only 153 HR and 530 RBI. I mean, is he really better than Bob Meusel (598), another Yankee, who hit .309 with 156 HR, 1067 RBI, and 142 SB? No.
• 608. Omar Vizquel -- I'm not an advocate for Vizquel for the HOF. And I'm not sure where I'd put him in a top 1000 list like this. But wherever that is, he should be a good deal higher than Mark Belanger (600). Both are most known for being great defensive shortstops. But Omar has been an all-star 3 times and has 11 gold gloves, while Belanger was an all-star only once and won 8 gold gloves. Belanger had some speed, totaling 167 SB for his career, but that is far fewer than Vizquel's 384. But most of all, Belanger had a pitiful .228 lifetime average (plus an even worse .183 in 10 postseason series), and only had three seasons batting over .250. Vizquel is no slugger, but at least he has batted .273 over his career, and managed to come in sixth in the 1999 race with a .333 mark. Surely Omar should be way ahead of Belanger on an all-time list.
• 617. Ben Oglivie -- I'm not going to argue he should be higher. I just wanted to again note the insanity of ranking Andre Thornton at 260. Was Thornton really that much better than Oglivie?
• 672. Addie Joss -- Another dominating pitcher who had a short career (died of meningitis). He had a 1.89 ERA compared with a league ERA of 2.68, leading the league twice. He won 20+ games four times, and ended up with a 160-97 record which is a .623 winning percentage. And as Gentile notes, Joss completed an amazing 234 of his 260 starts. Its always hard to rank players whose careers were cut short, but I think Joss should be higer than this.
• 684. John Smoltz -- Definitely too low. He won the Cy Young Award in 1996 when he went 24-8 with 276 strikeouts. He has been an all-star 8 times. But like Eckersley, Smoltz has managed to be successful at the highest level as both a starter and a reliever. From 2002-04 he had SV totals fo 55, 45, and 44. And in the second of those seasons he had an incredible 1.12 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. He should be far higher than this.
• 737. Pud Galvin -- A Hall-of-Famer with a lifetime record of 364-310: not a great percentage (.540), but still, 364 wins is 364 wins. His ERA of 2.86 is also only a little better than the league average during his time period (3.07). Its not easy to rank someone who retired in 1892, but he completed a mind-boggling 646 of his 689 career starts -- so I'd rank him higher than this.
• 779. Steve Finley -- Gentile's writeup on Finley is confusing, as he says that he has had over 24 HR in a season three times. Leaving aside the odd "over 24" standard, he has actually had six such seasons, including totals of 30, 34, 35, and 36. In his career Finley had 304 HR and 320 SB, quietly joining the rare 300/300 club. Although only an All-Star twice, he did grab five gold-gloves in the outfield, so I think he should be ranked a lot higher than this.
• 803. Chief Bender -- A 212-127 record is a .625 win rate. Although a borderline HOFer, I think he clearly deserves to be ranked higher than this.
• 858. David Cone -- The success of his first full season (1988), in which he went 20-3 with a 2.22 ERA, was never repeated. He won the Cy Young Award in the strike-shortened 1994 season, going 16-5 with a 2.94 ERA (a year when the League ERA was 5.00). His career record of 194-126 equates to a .606 winning percentage. I think this five-time all-star should be ranked higher than this, especialy when you consider Bret Saberhagen was ranked 654th and Orel Hershiser was ranked 613th.
• 864. Matt Williams -- 378 HR, 1218 RBI, 5-time All-Star, and 4 Gold Gloves at 3B mean Williams should be a lot higher than this.
• 891. Jesse Tannehill -- He had a career 197-116 record, which is a .629 winning percentage. He won 20+ games six times. Not a HOFer, but should be higher ranked than this I think.
• 905. Mike Mussina -- Even through the 2006 season I'd argue Mussina should be higher than this. But given his strong 2008 thus far, he is building his HOF resume. As of this writing he is 263-150 lifetime, which is a .637 winning percentage. He's never won 20 games in a season, and has never won a Cy Young Award (he has been in the top six in voting 8 times). But he is a five-time all-star and has won six Gold Gloves too. He should be several hundred spots higher than this -- I mean, Schilling is 419th, and I consider Mussina to be a better HOF candidate than Schilling.
• 934. David Kingman -- Granted, he had a low .236 average and his massive swing led to many strikeouts. But 442 HR (twice led league, and four times runner-up) and 1210 RBI deserve a higher ranking than this.
• 947. Ichiro Suzuki -- For some reason Gentile didn't update this entry after the 2004 season, so presumably if he had Ichiro would be ranked higher. By now he has had 200+ hits in all seven of his seasons (though he might not in 2008). He has a .331 average and 306 SB. And in his first seven seasons in the majors he has been both an all-star and gold-glover. Even if he quit today, I would rank him in the top 500 at least.
• Jeff Reardon (964) and John Franco (973) are again instances of Gentile's low ranking of good relievers. And he doesn't include Trevor Hoffman in the top 1,000 at all, though presumably he would at this point since Hoffman is now the all-time saves leader.
• 1000. Rich Dauer -- In case you were curious, this is who Gentile chose to round out his massive project. As a .257 hitter, with 43 HR, 372 RBI, 984 H, and only 6 SB, I would think there are more deserving players to make the list even in this last spot.

I have very much enjoyed reading and critiquing Gentile's ranking. Even with all the criticisms I have made, I obviously respect the project he undertook and the amount of time he must have spent researching it. For baseball fans like myself, I recommend his book as a fun read... let the debates continue!

Comments on Baseball's Best 1,000 (Part 3)

I recently picked up the 2008 edition of Derek Gentile's fun book Baseball's Best 1,000: Rankings of the Skills, the Achievements, and the Performance of the Greatest Players of All Time. I've enjoyed reading this book, and I'm doing a series of blog posts where I comment on his selections. The first post is here (comments on players 1-50), and the second is here (comments on players 51-100). I recommend you read these first.

In this post I'll remark on some of the selections that Gentile makes for players ranked 101-300. Unlike my first two posts, I won't list all of the players -- just the ones that I think are either notably too high, too low, or that I am particularly pleased are listed where they are.

But first, I want to make one general remark that became evident to me in reading through this part of his rankings. Gentile seems to rate pitchers -- both starters and relievers -- a bit lower than I would relative to everyday players. This will get brought to light somewhat in my comments below.

And now, some comments on the players rated 101-300:

• 109. Nolan Ryan -- Really this low? I know that most fans consider Ryan to highly: he was a lot of fun to watch, but his lifetime W-L% wasn't so great (even relative to the poor teams he was often on). For instance, TSN a few years back ranked him 41st all-time (too high in my view). But I think 109 is a bit low.
• 114. Pie Traynor -- Several decades ago, he was talked about as the greatest 3B of all-time. That was an exaggeration then, I think 114 overall is still too high now.
• 122. Alex Rodriguez -- Really below Traynor? And below Bobby Doerr (117) and Dick Allen (118)? And only one spot ahead of Don Mattingly at #123? No, I think A-Rod deserves to be at or above 100 already, and of course if he keeps playing at a high level he could easily crack the top 20 or even top 10 before he is done.
• 129. Reggie Smith -- I like him, and he surely is underrated today, but this is a bit high I think. Consider that he is above fellow outfielders Dale Murphy (138), Dave Winfield (140), Andre Dawson (143), and Kirby Puckett (146).
• 140. Dave Winfield -- I don't see how he is below the aforementioned Mattingly, Smith, Murphy. I mean, over 3,000 hits, 465 HR, 1,833 RBI, 12 All-Star teams, and 7 Gold Gloves? Should be much closer to the top 100, if not in it (TSN ranked him 94th all-time in 1998). I consider Winfield to have been justly selected as a Hall-of-Famer, and those other guys are rightly excluded.
• 146. Kirby Puckett -- Below Will Clark at 145? And below fellow Minnesota favorite Tony Oliva at 142? I don't see it. And neither would Bill James, who a few years ago ranked Puckett 98th all-time. And the somewhat popularity-tilted TSN ranked him 86th all-time.
• 156. Roberto Alomar -- his personality not withstanding, is Roberto really 50 spots lower than Barry Larkin (106)? If anything Alomar's lifetime numbers are better, and he was a 12-time All-Star with 10 Gold Gloves. Indeed, a few years ago Bill James rated Alomar the 80th player of all-time, and Larkin below him at 93rd. Surely a snub at this spot in the list.
• 158. Phil Niekro -- This seems a bit low, esp. compared with Ted Lyons (147). Oh, and by-the-way, his brother Joe and his 221 wins don't make the list at all (one of many victims of Gentile's stronger preference for everyday players than pitchers).
• 166. Darrell Evans -- I'm pleased to see him this high -- a player underrated by most fans.
• 167. Craig Biggio -- A major snub here. His position versatility, his long career, his high-OBP, 3,000 hits, and on and on... all warrants a higher slot. Who is next at 168? Sal Bando. Biggio is really only spot ahead of Sal? Come on. And don't let Bill James see this ranking for Biggio: a few years ago he ranked Biggio the 35th best player of all time (I wouldn't go quite that far).
• 173. Gaylord Perry -- see my comments for Niekro and magnify. TSN ranked him 97th all-time in 1998.
• 176. Willie Randolph -- too high! Just a few spots below Tony Lazzeri? And consider again the injustice of Biggio being at 167 if Randolph is here at 176!
• 178. Ivan Rodriguez -- a bit low, compared with Piazza at 89th place. Still playing, so hopefully he'd climb up this list by the time he retires.
• 181. Pedro Martinez -- definitely too low. He is still playing, but even if he retired today, he was so dominant for a few years, he should be higher based on that alone. Compare with others who were dominant for a short period: Sandy Koufax (47), Dizzy Dean (91), Big Ed Walsh (135). Or even Jim Palmer at 86th place, who played longer than those others but not as long as other stars. Given these ratings, Pedro should be close to or in the top 100.
• 183. Dave Parker -- Shouldn't he be up higher with the likes of Murphy, Dawson, and Rice? And how is Wally Berger (182) a slot ahead of Parker?
• 184. Manny Ramirez -- his numbers, without any talk of steroids, mean he deserves to be higher already.
• 185. Max Carey -- Led the league in SB 10 times, and was arguably the best centerfielder of his era. I think he should be higher than this.
• 187. Gene Tenace -- Wow. Top 1,000 surely. But this high? No way. Derek Jeter is #186, and Tenace comes right behind him? Tenace's career numbers are .241, 674 RBI, and 1076 hits. Um, OK. He is this close behind Pedro, Manny, and others I've complained about above? No way. Or compare Tenace with Joe Torre who is below him at 190 -- they are both C-1B-3B even, and surely Torre rates higher! 201 HRs, lots of walks, catching sometimes, and post-season heroics are all nice plusses, but this is way to high.
• 197. Tommy Leach -- I'm glad to see him crack the top-200. Good.
• 208. Phil Rizzuto -- I'm glad to see him this low. He shouldn't have been elected to the Hall of Fame.
• 209. Jesse Burkett -- too low for sure. A lifetime .338 hitter, against a league batting average during his tenure of .280. Lifetime OBP was .415, he scored 1,720 runs, stole 389 bases, and was only 150 hits shy of 3,000. He won three batting titles, including two seasons over .400. Compared with other old-timers, Jesse should be higher than this.
• 211. Hoyt Wilhelm -- The first reliever elected to the Hall of Fame, I think he should be higher than this. He started during parts of several seasons, and the one season he was a full-time SP he went 15-11 and led the AL in ERA with a 2.19 mark. As a reliever he kept his ERA below 2.00 six times! Interestingly, he never actually led his league in saves. But still, he racked up 227 of them before the statistic became a household word (well, in baseball fan households anyway).
• 232. Dennis Eckersley -- Appropriate that I complain about Eck's placement right after Wilhelm's. He too should be higher. 197 career wins and 390 career saves, and some of the most lights-out seasons ever, mean he should be ranked 150th or higher. TSN ranked him 98th all-time in 1998.
• 241. Sammy Sosa -- For some reason, the entry on Sosa hasn't been updated since after the 2003 season, so perhaps Gentile would re-evaluate Sammy's spot in the list now that he has 609 career HR. Even with the steroid suspicions, I think he should be a bit higher.
• 242. Wee Willie Keeler -- Ouch. Similar to my comments on Jesse Burkett, but even more so given he places Keeler 33 spots lower. He had a .341 average compared with a .280 league average during his time period. He didn't walk much, but he had 2,932 hits, scored 1,719 runs, and stole 495 bases. Two batting titles, including .424 in 1897.
• 245. Gary Sheffield -- See Manny Ramirez. Should be lower than Manny, but they both should be higher than Gentile lists them. Sheffield is still playing, so will likely end up with about a .290 average, 500+ HR, 1,700+ RBI, 250+ SB, and close to 3,000 hits. Obviously at that point he'll be higher than 245th, but I think he should be already.
• 249. Eddie Plank -- um, what? A 326-197 record for a .627 winning percentage. A lifetime 2.35 ERA (against a league average 2.87). A lifetime WHIP of 1.12. He completed 410 of his 529 starts. His postseason record was a hard-luck 2-5, given he posted a 1.32 ERA! Granted he's not in the class of Johnson, Alexander, and Mathewson, but he's in the next rung for his era -- and should be far higher than 249th all-time. TSN a few years ago ranked Plank 68th overall -- perhaps a bit too high, but closer to the mark than 249th.
• 253. Vada Pinson -- Like Darrell Evans, an oft-forgotten and underrated player. I'm glad to see him at least this high, but I think he perhaps deserves better: .286, 2,757 hits, 256 HR, 1366 Runs, and 305 SB.
• 254. Goose Gossage -- a victim of Gentile's generally low ranking of dominant closers. I'd rate each of the great ones higher than he does.
• 260. Andre Thornton -- Wow... definitely too high. His numbers: .254, 253 HR, 895 RBI, 792 Runs, 1,342 hits. And he played parts of 15 seasons. If he had only played 10, then maybe. But he played a long while, and only had 30+ HR three times. And its not like he was a catcher or middle infielder with power -- he split his time between 1B and DH! He was only an All-Star twice, and never led the league in any important categories. There is no way he should be this high in the rankings. I won't list all the guys that should be higher than Thornton but aren't -- there are too many.
• 262. Dwight Evans -- But I gotta list this one. See, this is what I mean. How is Thornton higher than Evans, or even anywhere close to him in the list? Dwight's numbers: .272, 385 HR, 2,446 hits, 1,384 RBI, 1,470 Runs, 8 Gold Gloves in the OF. Even leaving aside the comparison with Thornton, Evans should be up closer to Murphy, Dawson, Rice, and similar others, not down in this mid-200s range.
• 269. Bert Blyleven and 271. Early Wynn. -- Again, not enough credit is being given to starting pitchers here. Wynn was ranked 100th by TSN in 1998.
• 274. Randy Johnson -- Speaking of which, holy-cow man. The dominating Randy Johnson only comes in at 274th? He has led the league in strikeouts nine times, and is second all-time. He led the league in ERA four times. He won 20 games or more 3 times, and won 19 games 3 times. A ten-time All-Star, and most of all a five-time Cy Young Award winner? He should be in the top-100 at this point. What the heck?
• 290. Old Hoss Radbourn -- It is admittedly tough to rank the early pitchers. Radbourn played from 1880-1891, and he had two mind-boggling seasons in particular. In 1883 he went 48-25, and then in 1884 he agreed to pitch most of the second half of the season and went 59-12 (with a 1.38 ERA). He is often described as having gotten burned out after that, though he managed to win 20+ in five more seasons and end up with a 309-195 record. I gotta rank him higher than 290th... I mean, Gentile has Jay Bell ranked 289th!
• 292. Ralph Kiner -- Really? Someone who dominated his time, winning seven consecutive HR titles? He ended up hitting .279, with 369 HR, and .398 OBP. And that puts him just one spot ahead of Tony Fernandez (293), and again, well behind Andre Thornton? And TSN ranked him 90th all-time, perhaps a bit high, but closer to the mark than this 292nd appearance.

Stay tuned for the next batch!

Comments on Baseball's Best 1,000 (Part 2)

I recently picked up the 2008 edition of Derek Gentile's fun book Baseball's Best 1,000: Rankings of the Skills, the Achievements, and the Performance of the Greatest Players of All Time. I've enjoyed reading this book, and I recently started a series of blog posts where I comment on his selections. The first post is here, and I recommend you read that one first.

Before I comment on players he ranks 51-100, I wanted to warn readers that there are some noticeable typos in the book. Generally I find the book to be well-written, and with few errors, but there are a few mistakes which are kinda funny if you think about them (well, for baseball fans at least):

• Gentile clearly updated his section on Roger Clemens mid-way through the 2007 season, as he notes Clemens had gotten his 350th win. But then he indicates his lifetime record to be 350-118. This is way off, as after the 2007 season ended his record was 354-184. Suffice to say that if someone really had 350 wins AND a .748 career winning percentage, they would be rated even higher than the 20th spot that Gentile gives Clemens. Such a pitcher would be the best of all time (ahead of Johnson), and might even be a top-3 overall player.
• Several pitchers have their CG totals listed as "SB" -- likely a typo as the CG is the last stat given for each pitcher, while SB is the last stat given for each hitter. This happens for at least John Clarkson (#131), and for Ed Walsh (#135), though the error is made worse for Walsh as the 315 number given is actually his GS not his CG.
• But the typo I actually found hilarious was Dave Winfield's career Stolen Base mark, which was indicated to be 1,686 instead fo 223. Turns out 1,686 was his career strikeouts. If he was really that great on the basepaths (a full 280 more than career leader Rickey Henderson), then Winfield would surely have been rated a top-20 player, and not find himself in 140th place -- which is way to low, by the way.

OK... now my next batch of comments. As a reminder... I am not commenting on players from the Negro Leagues who are in the Gentile's top 1,000 list (indicating them with an asterisk). And when I refer to other rankings, these are:

• TSN - 1998 book "The Sporting News Selects Baseball's Greatest 100 Players"
• James - 2001 book by Bill James "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract

In starting where I left off, at number 51:

• 51. Arky Vaughn -- I like to give Arky his due, and James makes a strong case for him to rated as the #2 SS of all time, and even higher overall (39). No doubt, TSN snubbed him by not including him in their top 100 at all.
• 52. Bill Terry -- surely too high. While TSN generally agrees with Gentile, by rating Terry 59th, James completely disagrees by not including him the top 100 and only ranking him 26th amongst first-basemen. I have to agree more with James here, because while Terry's raw numbers look impressive, you have to consider the era in which he played (league batting average during his time was a lofty .289 and was over .300 in some seasons). So while I might not downgrade him as much as James does, I think 52nd is too high.
• 53. Cal Ripken
• 54. Whitey Ford -- Again, TSN agrees, ranking him 52nd. James keeps Ford off his top-100, and while I might get him in the top-100, I think 54 is too high.
• 55. Duke Snider
• 56. Steve Carlton
• 57. Buck Leonard *
• 58. Lou Brock -- Again, TSN agrees, ranking him 58th also. But I prefer James on this one too, as he doesn't include Brock in his top-100, presumably because of his lackluster fielding, low OBP and high strikeout rate. Oh, and did you know that Lou was only an all-star six times? Lower than I would have thought given his level of fame.
• 59. Bill Dickey -- Noticing a pattern at this point? TSN rates Dickey 57th, while James keeps him off his top-100. Interestingly, he doesn't downgrade fellow catching old-timer Mickey Cochrane, who Gentile ranks 62, TSN ranks 65, and James ranks 72. I'm not sure which I would rate higher.
• 60. Cap Anson
• 61. Cool Papa Bell *
• 62. Mickey Cochrane -- see comments above for Dickey.
• 63. Reggie Jackson
• 64. Roberto Clemente -- seems about right, though obviously I cringe at seeing him lower than Brock here. Surely TSN's ranking of him 20th is way too high! James has him 74th.
• 65. Hank Greenberg
• 66. Robin Yount
• 67. Tony Gwynn
• 68. Gabby Hartnett -- really? Before Piazza, Fisk, Carter as catchers? No way!
• 69. Harmon Killebrew
• 70. Bob Gibson -- I think he should be a bit higher. TSN has him at 31, and that might be too high. James says 46th.
• 71. Ryne Sandberg
• 72. Rod Carew
• 73. Joe Jackson -- hard to rate him because of his banishment. 73rd seems about right.
• 74. Mule Suttles *
• 75. Brooks Robinson
• 76. Home Run Baker
• 77. Ken Griffey Jr.
• 78. Willie McCovey
• 79. Ron Santo -- nice to see!
• 80. Dan Brouthers
• 81. Joe Cronin -- A bit high I think. Neither TSN nor James include Cronin in their top 100.
• 82. Wade Boggs -- This is fine placement relative to Carew and Gwynn I think, but surely he should be higher than Cronin!
• 83. Carl Hubbell
• 84. Al Simmons
• 85. Greg Maddux
• 86. Jim Palmer
• 87. Joe Williams *
• 88. Johnny Mize
• 89. Mike Piazza -- see Hartnett. And I would rate him close to Cochrane and Dickey.
• 90. Tim Raines -- very nice to see.
• 91. Dizzy Dean
• 92. Mark McGwire -- hard to rate him, given the clouds of suspicion.
• 93. Willie Stargell
• 94. Paul Waner
• 95. Willie Wells *
• 96. Al Kaline
• 97. Juan Marichal
• 98. Frankie Frisch
• 99. Sam Crawford
• 100. Mordecai Brown

Fun stuff!

In my third post in this series I won't list the players, I'll just comment on some I think are way too high or way to low from 101-1,000.

Top-25 Memories of Yankee Stadium

Local sports columnist Scott Pitoniak wrote an interesting piece in today's paper, "A Yankee Stadium Scrapbook". I especially like his top-25 list of famous events that took place at this famed location.

More Baseball HOF Probability Considerations

Local sports columnist Bob Matthews today updated his probability ratings for active players as to whether they will make the baseball Hall of Fame or not. I agree with most of his assessments. A few disagreements and other comments:

• I'm not sure that I'd quite rate Vladimir Guerrero as a 100% lock to make it. If he has just one or two more seasons, then yes. But as of today, maybe not quite. If Bob's assessment had that as an assumption, then fine.
• I'd put Vlad in a 75-99% category, something Bob didn't have. And with him I'd bump up Chipper Jones, instead of having him along with Jeff Kent and Lance Berkman at only 51-75 percent chance. In fact, I'd rate Jones just ahead of Guerrero if they both retired today.
• I'd also bump up Gary Sheffield from the 25-50% category to at least 51-75%, or perhaps 75-99%.
• If Hanley Ramirez is considered "Well on his way", then I should think Jose Reyes is too, as opposed to "Too early to gauge".
• I was glad to see Carlos Delgado and Jim Edmonds in the "Nice career, but no chance" category -- I fear they will have their supporters, but I don't think they are HOFers. I agree with all the other hitters he mentioned there too.
• As with hitters, I think a 76-99% category is needed, and in it I'd put John Smoltz. His Eckersley-like SP/RP combination is unique enough that I think he is nearly a lock.
• I'd switch Roy Oswalt and Billy Wagner, and have the latter in the 25-50 percent category and the former in the 1-25% category.
• And I'm glad to see him put Schilling and Mussina in the 25-50% category, though if Mussina can pitch again next year like he is this year, he'll become closer to a lock.
• As he turns 33 tomorrow, I don't consider Tim Hudson to be "Well on his way", but closer to "Nice career, but no chance". I think his best days are behind him.
• And ditto for Mark Buehrle, who is now 29, has never won 20 games, is not an exciting strikeout pitcher, and has a lifetime 3.79 ERA. I don't consider him to be "Well on his way".

Comments on Baseball's Best 1,000 (Part 1)

I recently picked up the 2008 edition of Derek Gentile's fun book Baseball's Best 1,000: Rankings of the Skills, the Achievements, and the Performance of the Greatest Players of All Time. Apparently he had a 2004 edition as well, though somehow I missed that. It seems this edition's rankings are based on stats/etc. up through about mid-way through the 2007 season.

The author notes that he doesn't have an overall single statistic approach, as other authors have used. Rather, he considers all the common statistics, as well as awards, all-star appearances, and so on -- taking into account both the absolute numbers and the era-relative comparisons as well. I prefer this kind of approach to these kinds of "all-time" questions in baseball, though I also enjoy the attempt to create a single overall, cross-era-comparing equation (like TPR or WIn Shares or whatever).

The author also does his best to include players from the Negro Leagues, though with incomplete data this isn't easy to do. Because of this, and because my own knowledge of the Negro League players is not very strong, I won't comment on any of them in what follows (except to indicate "*" in each case).

Any two baseball fan's top-10 all-time player's list will vary, and even more so their top-100 list. So naturally a top-1000 list will vary a great deal indeed. While no one rank Rich Dauer (his #1000) over Babe Ruth (his #1), there is a lot of room for healthy debate in such a ranking project. What follows are my disagreements with his listing -- in some cases I have questions or just mild disagreement, but in other cases I am baffled as to how the author could rank the player there instead of much higher or lower.

When I refer to other rankings, these are:

• TSN - 1998 book "The Sporting News Selects Baseball's Greatest 100 Players"
• James - 2001 book by Bill James "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract

I'll only comment on the players where I have something significant to say: lack of comment doesn't imply I necesssarily would rank that player in that exact spot, I just don't disagree enough to say anything.

In this post, I'll start with consideration of his top-50:

1. Babe Ruth
2. Willie Mays
3. Honus Wagner -- interesting to see him this high, before his contemporary Ty Cobb. He was sometimes referred to as the "Cobb of the NL", but was Cobb ever called the "Wagner of the AL"? TSN ranks Cobb 3rd and Wagner 13th (a bit low). In 2002 Cobb ranked 2nd all-time in Win Shares while Wagner came in 3rd. However in James's own top-100 list... he ranks Wagner second, ahead of both Mays and Cobb.
4. Ty Cobb
5. Walter Johnson
6. Barry Bonds -- tough to rank him, given his possibly (likely?) inflated numbers from steroids. And yet his numbers are mind-boggling.
7. Mickey Mantle -- this is the first big disagreement I have with Gentile. I don't see how Mantle could be this high -- over Ted Williams even?. TSN ranked him 17th, which might be a bit low but seems closer to the mark than 7th. But Gentile is in good company, as James ranked Mantle 6th (right after Cobb and before Williams). One can feel for Mantle's late-career injuries, but what about Williams lost years to the war?
8. Ted Williams
9. Josh Gibson*
10. Stan Musial
11. Joe DiMaggio -- Exactly where TSN had him ranked too. James listed him 13th -- and I prefer to see Speaker rated over Joe D.
12. Tris Speaker -- See above. Also, TSN ranked Speaker only 27th -- a travesty!
13. Lou Gehrig -- I'd rank Lou ahead of Joe D. as well, though James did not. TSN ranked him 6th -- surely too high.
14. Hank Aaron -- I'd rank him ahead of Joe D. as well.
15. Lefty Grove
16. Grover Cleveland Alexander -- I disagree with Alexander appearing so far ahead of Christy Mathewson. TSN agrees, as they have Mathewson as high as 7th, with Alexander at 12th. James seems to agree with Gentile though, ranking Alexander 20th and Mathewson 42nd.
17. Satchel Paige*
18. Eddie Collins -- Whenever I see him ranked this high I question it, but then after some thought, I tend to agree. TSN had him a bit lower at 24th. James flips Collins (18th) and Morgan (15th) amongst 2B. I'm conflicted though -- what about Rogers Hornsby? I still think of him as the greatest at the position (TSN ranks him 9th overall, while James has him 22nd).
19. Joe Morgan
20. Roger Clemens -- if you believe the steroid accusations, you might adjust down. He and Maddux were the best of their generation, but with Maddux you don't have the clouds overhead.
21. Rogers Hornsby -- see Collins discussion above.
22. Oscar Charleston*
23. Cy Young -- I'd probably nudge him up a bit. TSN had him 14th overall, James had him 23rd.
24. Mike Schmidt
25. Rickey Henderson -- Good to see. TSN totally messed this up by ranking him 51st. James is on target by rating him 26th.
26. Jackie Robinson -- Hard to rank him, because of his short career. Obviously, in terms of importance to the game, he is at or near the top (with Ruth and few others). TSN ranked him lower, at 44th place. James liked him at 32nd place.
27. Jimmie Foxx
28. Pete Rose -- another player who is hard to rank. Not only is their the distaste over his gambling, his attitude about his gambling, and his banishment from the game, but he also was a unique type of player and his lifetime numbers don't compare easily with other greats. TSN put him 25th, James had him 33rd, and I think somewhere around 25-35 is about right.
29. Frank Robinson
30. Eddie Mathews -- I don't like seeing Mathews ahead of Brett.
31. Pop Lloyd*
32. Mel Ott
33. Carl Yastrzemski -- seems about right, while TSN definitely does Yaz wrong by ranking him 72nd, below the likes of Pie Traynor!
34. Warren Spahn
35. Nap Lajoie
36. Yogi Berra -- the first catcher in the list (other than Josh Gibson of course). James also rated Berra top amongst catchers, and 41st overall. TSN went dramatically the other way, rating Bench 16th and Berra 40th -- surely there isn't that much distance between them.
37. Tom Seaver
38. Bob Feller
39. Roy Campanella -- I don't think he should rank ahead of Bench, and James lists him third amongst catchers as well.
40. George Sisler -- This is in line with TSN's view of Sisler (33rd), but I agree with James that he is overrated. James goes so far as to rate him 24th among 1B, and therefore not in his overall top 100 at all.
41. Christy Mathewson -- I really don't see how you can have this much space between Mathewson and Alexander, as their career numbers and achievements are quite similar. I'll admit that TSN's ranking of him as 7th ia a bit high, but I think Mathewson, Alexander, and Young should all be in the 10-20 range.
42. Turkey Stearnes*
43. George Brett -- I would have rated him higher than Mathews, and both TSN and James agree.
44. Johnny Bench -- see comments on Berra and Campy above.
45. Charlie Gehringer -- a bit high in my view. TSN has him 46th, but I like James's ranking of him at 59th.
46. Kid Nichols
47. Sandy Koufax -- a hard one to rank, due to his short career. TSN had him higher (26th), but I like him in this 40-60 range.
48. Eddie Murray -- my initial reaction was that this is too high, and that TSN's ranking at 77th is better. But upon reflection, I think somewhere in the 45-55 range is good. James rated him at 61.
49. Harry Heilmann -- Too high. This is similar to TSN's 54 ranking, but James considers him like Sisler (as having numbers aided by his era), and hence not worthy of even a top-100 spot.
50. Ernie Banks -- Gentile nearly splits the difference between TSN's ranking (38th) and James's (77th). I'd put Banks a bit closer to the lower end of this range.

I plan to look at the 51-100 ranked players next time, then more superficially comment on the remaining 900 in a third post.

Half-way through the 2008 Season

Right about now is the half-way point for the 2008 MLB season. Most teams have played around 81 games, so to determine a player's statistical pace for the year it is a simple "times two" calculation.

Here are my thoughts on some players so far.

Disappointing first half:

• David Ortiz -- .252, 13 HR, 43 RBI
• Carlos Pena -- .223, 11 HR, 36 RBI
• Robinson Cano -- .244, 6 HR, 33 RBI
• Vernon Wells -- .286, 8 HR, 36 RBI
• Alex Rios -- .281, 4 HR, 29 RBI (does have 16 SB)
• Paul Konerko -- .215, 8 HR, 30 RBI
• Delmon Young -- .282, 1 HR, 26 RBI (does have 9 SB)
• Miguel Cabrera -- .279, 11 HR, 47 RBI
• Gary Sheffield -- .224 5 HR, 16 RBI in only 156 AB
• Travis Hafner -- .217, 4 HR, 22 RBI in only 157 AB
• Victor Martinez -- .278, 0 HR, 21 RBI
• Kenji Johjima -- .233, 3 HR, 20 RBI
• Richie Sexson -- .220, 9 HR, 26 RBI
• Jimmy Rollins -- .264, 6 HR, 28 RBI (does have 17 SB)
• Ryan Zimmerman -- .257, 8 HR, 27 RBI
• Rickie Weeks -- .217, 7 HR, 22 RBI (does have 11 SB, 47 runs)
• Adam LaRoche -- .220, 7 HR, 31 RBI
• Ken Griffey -- .234, 9 HR, 34 RBI
• Eric Byrnes -- .205, 6 HR, 23 RBI (and only 4 SB)
• Andruw Jones -- .165, 2 HR, 7 RBI in only 133 AB
• Todd Helton -- .267, 7 HR, 28 RBI
• Khalil Greene -- .229, 8 HR, 31 RBI
• Justin Verlander -- 4-9, 4.42 ERA (improving recently)
• Jason Isringhausen -- 11 saves, 5.74 ERA
• Ian Snell -- 3-7, 5.99 ERA
• Roy Oswalt -- 6-8, 4.77 ERA
• Aaron Harang -- 3-10, 4.51 ERA (pitching better than his record indicates)
• Brad Penny -- 5-9, 5.88 ERA
• Barry Zito -- 3-11, 5.91 ERA (the definition of disappointment, given his mammoth contract)

Working on breakout seasons:

• Carlos Quentin -- .289, 18 HR, 60 RBI. He had been a prospect for a few years, but it wasn't clear if he was going to come through.
• Evan Longoria -- .271, 15 HR, 47 RBI (rookie, started season in AAA)
• Joakim Soria -- 21 Saves, 1.29 ERA. He had a fine rookie season, pitching in 62 games and getting 17 saves with a 2.48 ERA. But this year he has picked it up a notch.
• Rich Harden -- although injured a bit (per usual), he is 5-0 with a 2.15 ERA, and 83 K in 67 IP. If he can stay healthy for all of the second half (a big if), then this could be his best season yet.
• Justin Duchscherer -- 8-5, 1.91 ERA. After many years in the pen, he seems to be blossoming at age 30.
• Ian Kinsler -- .318, 13 HR, 50 RBI, 70 Runs, 25 doubles, 20 SB. Multiply by two and this is a great season!
• Josh Hamilton -- .309, 19 HR, 78 RBI. What a story this guy is!
• Jair Jurrjens -- 8-3 with a 2.94 ERA. A nice pickup by Atlanta from Detroit.
• Geovany Soto -- .280, 13 HR, 47 RBI are great for a catcher. This is his first full season, and he's only 25.
• Ryan Ludwick -- .286, 16 HR, 56 RBI. He did hit 14 HR last year in 303 at-bats, but few would have predicted this first half for him at age 29.
• Ben Sheets -- 9-1 and a 2.59 ERA. Seems like every year people predict he'll breakout -- it is finally happening for him at age 29.
• Nate McLouth -- .283, 14 HR, 51 RBI, 59 runs, 26 doubles, 9 SB. With Nady having a good year, and Bay a comeback of the year candidate, this OF trio gives the Pirates something to be cheer for.
• Edinson Volquez -- 10-3, 2.08 ERA, with 110 K in 99.3 IP. He hadn't shown much in brief stints for three years in Texas, but at age 24 he is showing us something!
• Tim Lincecum -- 9-1, 2.38 ERA. At age 24 and in his second season, he has stud written all over him.

Some other surprises so far this year:

• Troy Percival's comeback at age 39. He has 18 saves and a 3.08 ERA, after 8 saves in 2005, not playing in 2006, and 0 saves in 40 IP in 2007.
• Mariano Rivera's return to dominance at age 38. He has 22 saves and a microscopic 0.74 ERA. At this rate, he is on pace to have his best statistical season ever -- and that is saying a lot!
• Mike Mussina having a solid season at age 39. He is 10-5 with a 3.93 ERA. He's never won 20 games, but is on pace to barely do so this year (likely won't).
• Cliff Lee going 11-1 with a 2.34 ERA, after going 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA last year. He was 18-5 in 2005, so no one would have said this was impossible, but I doubt many predicted it either.
• Ervin Santana is 9-3, 3.32 ERA. After going 16-8 in 2006, he went 7-14 with a 5.76 ERA last year.
• Joe Saunders is 11-4 with a 3.06 ERA. In his first two seasons he went 7-3 and 8-5.
• Milton Bradley -- .329, 16 HR, 49 RBI. If you can figure this guy out, you win a prize.
• Brad Lidge has 19 saves and a 0.84 ERA. He was a bit of question mark when the season began, given his inconsistencies the last two years.
• Chipper Jones is hitting an insane .394, and has 16 HR with 46 RBI. He did hit .337 with 29 HR and 102 RBI last year, and he usually hits over .300. But still... .394?

Some impressive paces:

• Francisco Rodriguez -- 31 saves and a 2.06 ERA. That is a pace for 62 saves, which would break Bobby Thigpen's record of 57.
• Chase Utley -- 23 HR and 65 RBI times two is 46 HR and 130 RBI -- quite a pace for a 2B.
• Dan Uggla -- 23 HR and 58 RBI times two is 46 HR and 116 RBI -- also not a bad pace for a 2B.
• Lance Berkman -- .366, 21 HR, 66 RBI, 27 doubles, 70 runs. A great pace, but he is a great hitter. What is surprising though is his 12 SB, which is already more than his previous career best of 9.
• Chipper Jones -- .394... can he stay close to .400? He has a chance if he takes days off now and then.
• Ryan Howard -- 113 strikeouts, on pace for 226, which would break the record that he set last year with 199.
• The following pitchers have 10 or more wins, and hence are on pace for 20-win seasons: Brandon Webb 12, Cliff Lee 11, Joe Saunders 11, Mike Mussina 10, Vincente Padilla 10, Aaron Cook 10, Edinson Volquez 10. Eight others have 9. We should end up with more 20-game winners than in some recent season.

It might be time to retire:

• Todd Jones -- 14 saves, 4.94. He is 40, and the Tigers desperately need to find a closer to replace him (injuries have slowed a few candidates).
• Tom Glavine -- 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA. 42 years old.
• Pedro Martinez -- 2-2 with a 7.12 ERA. At 36, he'll might give it another few seasons, but he is hurting his lifetime ERA at this rate!
• Randy Johnson -- 4-6, 4.94 ERA. Still strikes hitters out: 76 K in 82 IP. But at age 44, it looks like it will be tough to get 12 more wins to reach 300.
• Jeff Kent -- .251, 8 HR, 34 RBI. He is 40, and that .292 OBP isn't pretty.
• Omar Vizquel -- .161, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB, in only 118 at-bats. At age 41, I hope he calls it quits soon.

Overrated and Underrated Baseball Players

I recently finished reading The Stark Truth, by Jayson Stark, a columnist and frequent commentator on ESPN. Overall, I found the book a worthwhile read: a great topic, though I do have one major criticism.

I like Mr. Stark when he appears on ESPN. But I do not like his writing style. Or at least, I don't like his style in this book (I'm not familiar with his writing style for the Philadelphia Inquirer). I found myself only being able to read this book in 10-page sections -- that is how annoying I found his approach! Practically every sentence -- certainly every paragraph -- tried to be cute and clever. I literally yelled out a few times "Stop! Just write like a normal, boring person for a few pages, please!" His style is just too over-the-top for me -- frankly, I've never read any other author quite like this.

But his topic certainly was an interesting one: selecting the five most underrated and the five most overrated baseball players at each position, and detailing why in each case. For someone like me, this is great fun.

I generally agreed with many of his selections, though I'm sure if I spent enough time my lists of five would have come out differently in many cases. A few random bits I'll note here, as teaser for any readers who might be inclined to get the book:

• I definitely like the inclusion of Don Drysdale as second on the overrated RHP list after the consensus-#1 selection of Nolan Ryan. I'm actually not as down on Ryan as most other serious baseball fans are, but I agree with Drysdale here. And I like his top three for underrated RHP: Feller, Marichal, and Blyleven.
• I don't know that Frank Tanana deserves to be 4th on the list of overrated LHP (who really thinks of his career that highly?), though I agree that Barry Zito deserves to be 5th given his current fat contract. For most underrated LHP, Babe Ruth is an interesting selection. And I like Warren Spahn, Steve Carlton, and Lefty Grove as next on this list.
• I definitely agree with Lee Smith as top of the most overrated relief pitcher list, and also agree with Goose Gossage as top of the most underrated. Oh, and my personal favorite pitcher as a kid, and the one who I patterned my own pitching style after -- Dan Quisenberry -- makes it as 5th on the most underrated list too.
• My dad would probably be glad to read the section on Yogi Berra as the most underrated catcher of all-time (as he and I used to argue over who was the all-time best at the position, Bench or Berra). And many would agree with including Ted Simmons and Gary Carter somewhere in the top-5 for most underrated too.
• Steve Garvey is the top most-overrated 1B, and I agree he should at least be on the list somewhere. And ditto for Tony Perez who is listed 4th, and for Gil Hodges who is listed 5th (and will likely one day be one of the most marginal Hall-of-Famers ever, joining Perez in that respect). Choosing Hank Greenberg as the most underrated 1B of all time is a fine selection in my opinion.
• I cracked a smile when I saw Steve Sax as the most overrated 2B -- definitely agree there. The most underrated 2B list includes Craig Biggio and Bobby Grich, two good choices. He then lists Rogers Hornsby third, which is very odd since he is generally regarded as the all-time best at the position. Stark's reason is his anger at the Cardinals for not having Hornsby as one of their five nominees for Greatest Cardinal in History -- a mistake with which I agree 100% (Umm... Lou Brock instead of Hornsby? Really?)
• I would have probably listed Pie Traynor as #1 most overrated 3B over Craig Nettles. But for most underrated I gotta agree with Ron Santo: when will he get into the HOF? Eddie Mathews, Darrell Evans, and Ken Boyer are also good choices on this list.
• At SS, clearly Phil Rizzuto had to be on the most overrated list somewhere and being first is fine with me. Stark lists Barry Larkin as the most underrated, and I'll agree with that if Barry should struggle to get into the HOF when his time comes.
• I won't argue with Lou Brock as the most overrated LF of all-time, and I definitely agree that Stan Musial, Tim Raines, Ralph Kiner, and Minnie Minoso are underrated.
• I don't know about listing Andruw Jones as the most overrated CF of all-time -- he is still surprisingly young, so I have a wait-and-see attitude on his career. Hack Wilson though... definitely... he'd be my #1 here. And speedsters Juan Pierre, Mickey Rivers and Omar Moreno are good choices here too. Stark makes a good point about Duke Snider being overshadowed by Mickey and Willie, and I like Jimmy Wynn's inclusion on the all-underrated CF list too. And Tris Speaker too... how often do you think of Tris Speaker when you think of Ty Cobb and Honus Wagner? Not often enough I bet.
• I like listing Darryl Strawberry as an overrated RF, and Chuck Klein too: He had a few huge seasons, but during the everyone-hits-well 1930s and he played in the Baker Bowl and those two factors inflated his numbers. I like listing Frank Robinson as underrated here, because like Speaker in CF, how often do you think of Frank along with Mays, Mantle, and Aaron? And Dwight Evans was a consistently good player, but always overshadowed for me by Jim Rice's more explosive numbers.

A final section is also a lot of fun, as Stark lists his choices for top-3 underrated and top-3 overrated by franchise. This involves some repeats from the lists-by-position, but some additional names are introduced too.

So my writing-style criticism aside, if you are a big baseball fan you will enjoy this book, so check it out at your local bookstore or order it from Amazon!

The Prank on Kyle Kendrick

Check out the YouTube video covering the "you've been traded to Japan" prank on Phillies pitcher Kyle Kendrick. Classic!

Congrats to Goose

Goose Gossage finally was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. He should have gotten in years ago. In 2007 he came close 71.2% of the vote (75% is needed). This year's new class of candidates was extremely weak, so that allowed voters to think further about Goose, and so he suddenly received 85.9% of the vote.

How weak was this year's class? In my view Tim Raines is a marginal hall-of-famer, but he only received 24.3% during this first year. I would vote for him, but I don't know if he'll ever get in. Other than him, no one from this year's class even got the 5% of the vote necessary to remain on the ballot next year (Rod Beck, Travis Fryman, Robb Nenn, Shawon Dunston, Chuck Finley, David Justice, Chuck Knoblauch, Todd Stottlemyre, Jose Rijo, Brady Anderson).

So naturally many holdovers did better this year. Gossage was elected, and Jim Rice nearly made it too, as he climbed from 63.5% to 72.2%. Next year's class has sure HOFer Rickey Henderson, but not many others who will get a lot of support (Mark Grace? Matt Williams? Mo Vaughn?), so hopefully Rice will get in. Actually, I'm more supportive of Bert Blyleven than Rice, but I'd vote for those two as well as Andre Dawson. Bert this year climbed from 47.7% to 61.9%, while Andre climbed from 56.7% to 65.9%.

ESPN's Hotstove Pages

For fellow baseball fans out there, be sure to check out ESPN's well-done "hotstove" section. Here you can easily go through each team and see their predicted starters for 2008, with tabs for players gained, lost, and current free agents. This is a great way to keep up with all the offseason moves, and prepare for fantasy baseball leagues next year.

Who's On First and Star Wars

Even though I have it memorized by now, I still laugh when I hear Abbott and Costello's famous "Who's on first?" routine. But I was delighted to discover a version that merges the audio of this routine with video clip footage of Yoda and a lesser Star Wars character. Although its only a small part of the routine, its enough.

On Greg Maddux and 400 Wins

In June of 2006 I posted an item on the 300 Win Club in baseball. I wrote about how very few additional pitchers are likely to make it to 300, with Tom Glavine being the obvious one to predict at that time. He did in fact go beyond 300 in 2007, and the next in line, Randy Johnson, is at 284 wins after an injury-shortened 2007 campaign held him to a 4-3 record. Should he make it to 300, he could be the last. Mike Mussina could possibly do it, as he is at 250, but there is no way David Wells (239), Jamie Moyer (230), Curt Schilling (216), or Kenny Rogers (210) will get there. Pedro Martinez proved he can still pitch at age 35 by going 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA in September after rehabilitating most of the season. But with only 209 wins and history of being fragile, I wouldn't bet much on him getting to 300. As I said in that entry, "never again" is a strong claim to make, but it is a worthwhile question to raise at this point.

But a recent post to the SABR-L discussion list raised another interesting question along the same lines: could Greg Maddux reach 400 wins? I had never thought of that, but it seems at least reasonable to ask.

I'll begin by noting I don't see Roger Clemens getting to 400 wins. He has more than Maddux currently, as he ended the 2007 season with an outstanding lifetime 354-184 record. While he was dominating for the Astros in 2005 (13-8, 1.87 ERA in 32 starts) and 2006 (7-6, 2.30 ERA in 19 starts), his 2007 season back in the AL with the Yankees was a disappointment (6-6, 4.18 ERA in 17 starts). He turned 45 in August, so I consider it likely he either won't come back for another season, or if he does his performance will continue to decline. Getting 46 more wins would mean pitching until his 49th birthday at least -- and I don't even see the great Roger Clemens doing that.

But what about Greg Maddux? At only age 41 he ended the 2007 season with a lifetime 347-214 record. He continues to start 30+ games a year -- in fact, he's done that every year since 1987 except the two strike-shortened seasons in the 1990s. And while he's far from his dominance of a decade ago, he continues to be a quality #2-4 guy in a rotation, posting records of 13-15, 15-14, and 14-11 the past three years. His ERA ihas been over 4.00 the past four seasons, but not far above and still around or slightly better than the league average.

So could he pitch four more seasons? Very possibly, since that would put him at age 45 for his last year in 2011. Could he average 13-14 wins a season for those years? That could be tough, as he'd have to not decline any from his recent levels. But if we won say, 14, 14, 13, and 13 that would give him 401 wins for his career. So would give seasons with win totals of 14, 13, 11, 9 and 7. Either of those scenarios seem at least possible. Of course, he could easily choose to retire before then, or finally get that bad injury that his excellent conditioning and high intelligence have allowed him to avoid his entire career. But neither of those events are at all predictable.

So what would joining the exclusive 400-win club mean exactly? Any serious baseball fan knows he'd be only the third major-league pitcher to reach that mark. The incomparable Cy Young of course tops the list with an insane 511 wins. Walter Johnson is second all-time with 417. After that are fellow old-timers Grovery Cleveland (Pete) Alexander and Christy Mathewson with 373

Most of the highest guys on this list are from baseball's earliest days, with only Warren Spahn (1942-1965) currently at 360 or more wins. He ended up with a 363-245 record, and was a model of consistency. He won 20+ games 13 times, but never won more than 23 in a season. In fact, starting in 1956 at the age of 35 he won 20+ games 7 out of 8 seasons. This culminated in his 23-7 and 2.60 ERA season in 1963, at the young age of 42. But then he went downhill fast, going 6-13 the next year and retiring after going 7-16 in 1965. An amazing career, and I bet people were asking about the possibility of 400 wins for Spahn after that 1963 season. But then it didn't happen, and didn't really come close to happening actually.

Next I'll discuss briefly the other recent players to top 300 wins (not including Tom Glavine), and how they did at the end of their careers:

• Steve Carlton ended up with a 329-244 record. He took home the Cy Young Award at age 37 in 1982, going 23-11 with a 3.10 ERA. But then he went 15-16 and 13-7, and ended with poor campaigns of 1-8, 9-14, and 6-14 (plus a brief 0-1 season at age 43 in 1988). He had great conditioning during his career, but clearly had lost it at the end and most would argue he held on too long.
• Nolan Ryan first made it to the bigs at the age of 19 in 1966, but that was a brief stint. He returned in 1968 but for three seasons he did mixed duty as a starter and relievers. He pitched for some bad teams, but I've seen some analyses that indicate that his wins total didn't actually suffer that much because of it. One season where it clearly did was 1987, when at the age of 40 he had a 2.76 ERA but managed only an 8-16 record. In the end he recorded a 324-292 lifetime record. He was still going strong in 1991 at age 44, when he posted a 12-6 record. But then his last two years he went only 5-9 and 5-5.
• Don Sutton only reached 20 wins in a season, going 21-10 in 1976. Still, he ended up with a 324-256 recor. He won 15 games in both 1985 and 1986, but then at age 42 he slipped to an 11-11 record and in 1988 at age 43 he went only 3-6 in 16 starts.
• Phil Niekro through a knuckler so he was able to hold on a long time, finally retiring at age 48 in 1987 with a 318-274 record. He had several fine seasons past the age of 40, but that last was weak (7-13 with a 6.30 ERA).
• Gaylord Perry took home Cy Young Award honors in 1978 at age 40 going 21-6 with a 2.73 ERA. But then had win totals of 12, 10, 8, 10, and 7, ending up with a lifetime 314-265 mark.
• Tom Seaver, arguably the best pitcher of this group, actually ended up with the fewest career wins. He was going strong in 1981 at age 36, but the strike messed up his season (14-2, 2.54 ERA). The next two seasons were disasters, as he went 5-13 and then 9-14. A move to the AL revived his career, as he went 15-11 in 1984 and 16-11 in 1985. But then at age 41 he went 7-13 and called it quits after that. His lifetime record of 311-205 gives him a .603 winning percentage, but obviously he was no threat to reach 400 wins.

So it is clear from these other greats that it is quite easy to reach the 300-330 win mark, be in your early 40s, and then decline rapidly. But none of these guys went past 330, let alone reached 347 wins by age 41. Mr. Maddux has a chance, but because so many things could happen, I'd put it at well below 50/50.

2007 All-Star Squad -- What about Beckett?

In his Sunday column, local sportswriter Bob Mathews presented his 2007 All-Star squad.

I agree with Prince Fielder at 1B, with Howard and Pena as honorable mention, although I might have also mentioned Albert Pujols. Although Prince Albert didn't have a typically awesome season, he did hit .327 with a .429 OBP, 32 HR, and 103 RBI.

I can along with Chase Utley at 2B, even though missed some games due to injury. He also mentions Cano and Polanco, while I might have mentioned Brian Roberts or Brandon Phillips in addition or instead. Especially Phillips, as he joined the 30/30 club with 30 HR and 32 SB.

I agree that it was a great year for NL shortstops, and I agree that Rollins was the best of them. Hanley Ramirez is a solid honorable mention, though I don't see how he can mention Jeter without also listing Reyes with his 78 SB and 119 Runs.

At 3B choosing A-Rod is a no-brainer, and I like the four he mentioned as also-rans: Chipper, Cabrera, Wright, and Lowell. And that still leaves out fine seasons from Atkins and Aramis Ramirez.

His catcher is Posada, which is a fine choice, since he gave V. Martinez and Russell Martin their due as honorable mentions.

David Ortiz had yet another great year hitting, so he is the clear choice at DH. Bob mentions Frank Thomas, who had a fine year as well.

In the OF, the three starters are Holliday, Ordonez, and Vlad Guerrero. I can't argue with those selections, and he also honors Ichiro, Carlos Lee, Granderson and Crawford. There are many others he could have mentioned as well, like at least Eric Byrnes given his important role for the playoff Diamondbacks.

Bob lists Jake Peavy as the top RHP, and that seems obvious. The top LHP title goes to C.C. Sabathia. For RHPs he mentions Penny, Carmona, Lackey, Wang, and Webb -- and all had fine seasons. But what about Josh Beckett? This seems to be the biggest omission from Bob's column! Beckett was the only 20-game winner this year, posting a 20-7 record, with a 3.27 ERA, and 194 strikeouts. I would have honored Beckett ahead of Wang, Penny, and even Carmona, though perhaps not Lackey or Webb. As additional LHPs, Bob mentions Bedard, Santana, and Hamels, and I have no problem with that group.

For relievers, his top pick is J.J. Putz and I agree there. He then mentions Saito, Nathan, and Papelbon, and I like those picks too.

His MVPs are A-Rod and Holliday, and I agree... with Holliday barely edging Rollins in the NL. And I like his Cy Young choices of Peavy and Sabathia, though I could see Beckett winning the AL vote. Dustin Pedroia certainly had a good AL rookie campaign, so I like him getting the ROY there. The NL ROY is a tougher call, as Bob goes with Troy Tulowitzki in a tough call over Ryan Braun. Troy did play the entire season, but that is what makes Braun's numbers all the more impressive -- he has better numbers in 150-fewer at-bats -- so I give Braun the NL ROY award.

It was quite a season, and I'm looking forward to the playoffs!

Granderson and Rollins Join Elite Club

Here is a followup to my earlier posting about the incredible season of Curtis Granderson this year. Not only did Curtis join the 20/20/20/20 club (HR, D, T, SB), but Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies has as well.

Is that a big deal? Yes! In the history of the game how many people have had such 20/20/20/20 seasons? Just two: Willie Mays in 1957 and Frank "Wildfire" Schulte in 1911. And now all of a sudden this club doubles in size in one season!

Here are the final numbers for Granderson and Rollins in 2007:

Granderson: 38 D, 23 T, 23 HR, 26 SB (only 1 CS), .302 Avg, 122 Runs, 74 RBI

Also, Granderson's 23 T is the most anyone has had in a season since Dale Mitchell's 23 in 1949.

Rollins: 38 D, 20 T, 30 HR, 41 SB (only 6 CS), .277 Avg, 139 Runs, 94 RBI

Oh, and for what its worth, it seems Jimmy Rollins broke the record for most At-bats in a season this year with 716. The old record was Willie Wilson with 705 in 1980. He also set the record for most Plate Appearances with 778. The old record was 773 by Lenny Dykstra in 1993.

Of Gold and Silver

Mark Snyder had an interesting post that considers the intersection of baseball's Gold Glove Award and Silver Slugger Award winners over the years.

Hitting The Cutoff Man Series

Mark Snyders has recently started up an interesting series of postings called Hitting the Cutoff Man. He is analyzing various baseball statistical milestones -- like the well known 300 wins, 3000 hits, and 500 HRs -- to determine who the "cutoff men" are for inclusion in the Hall-of-Fame. This is an interesting way to approach the HOF question, and one I've not seen done before. He started with a discussion of Wins for pitchers, and then did Extra-Base Hits for hitters.

Update on Granderson

Here is a followup on two baseball posts I made recently. As part of the 8th post I made in Baseball Lists series, I noted the five players who have had 20 HR, 20 Triples, and 20 Doubles all in one season. Curtis Granderson hit his 20th HR yesterday. Then more recently I posted on Curtis Granderson's season this year, focusing on his triples total, but also noting that he had already joined the group of players who have had 15 HR, 15 T, 15 D, and 15 stolen bases all in one season.

Well, Curtis hit his 20th HR yesterday. So he is now the 6th player to make the 20/20/20 HR/T/D club. Further, he has 19 SB this year, so with just one more he'll join only Willie Mays (1957) and oldtimer Frank "Wildfire" Schulte (1911) in the 20/20/20/20 club for HR/T/D/SB.

Here are the stats for the six in the first club:

• Curtis Granderson: 2007
  .297, 20 HR, 21 T, 36 D, 19 SB, 104 R, 67 RBI
  
• George Brett: 1979
  .329, 23 HR, 20 T, 42 D, 17 SB, 119 R, 107 RBI
  
• Willie Mays: 1957
  .333, 35 HR, 20 T, 26 D, 38 SB, 112 R, 97 RBI
  
• Jeff Heath: 1941
  .340, 24 HR, 20 T, 32 D, 18 SB, 89 R, 123 RBI
  
• Jim Bottomley: 1928
  .325, 31 HR, 20 T, 42 D, 10 SB, 123 R, 136 RBI
  
• Frank Schulte: 1911
  .300, 21 HR, 21 T, 30 D, 23 SB, 105 R, 107 RBI

I'll note that the 1979 season Brett had is very impressive, and he followed it up with his more famous 1980 season when he batted .390. That is a good two-year span!

Also, Jeff Heath only had a few good seasons in his career. The 1941 season above is one, and notice that he was just 2 SB short of making the 20/20/20/20 club. But in 1938, his first full season he also did quite well: .343, 21 HR, 18 T, 31 D, 104 R, 112 RBI, 3 SB. Although he didn't run much, he was just 2 triples shy of the 20/20/20 club that year.

Interestingly, Jimmy Rollins is also having an impressive season along these same lines. Could we have two members of the 20/20/20 and 20/20/20/20 clubs in the same season? He just needs 3 more triples:

• Jimmy Rollins: 2007
  .296, 25 HR, 17 T, 35 D, 28 SB, 120 R, 79 RBI

Curtis Granderson and Triples

Curtis Granderson of the Detroit Tigers is having an impressive season. He won't be the AL MVP, as he's not put up huge numbers like A-Rod or even as MVP-like as his Detroit teammate Magglio Ordonez. I think those two are the frontrunners for AL MVP, with I guess Vlad Guerrero of the Angels also getting some votes.

But nonetheless, Granderson is doing something quite historic. Last year was his first full season, and his numbers were solid: .260, 19 HR, 68 RBI, 31 D, 9 T, 90 Runs, and 8 SB. Some were likely disappointed with only 8 SB, and his 174 strikeouts were obviously a problem he needed to work on in 2007. Well, in 2007 through August 24, he is still striking out a lot (121 K), but the rest of his numbers are much improved: .289, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 95 R, 32 D, and 15 SB. Nice numbers, but nothing to write much about... until you see he has 21 triples already this year!

Some perspective on this is needed. In 2006 the league leaders in triples were Jose Reyes with 17 and Carl Crawford with 16. So Curtis is already well past those marks this year, with over a month to go. Going back further, Christian Guzman had 20 triples in 2000, and Lance Johnson had 21 in 1996. Willie Wilson had 21 in 1985, and George Brett had 20 in 1979. The great Willie Mays had 20 in 1957. But to top 21 you have to go back to Dale Mitchell of the Cleveland Indians who had 23 in 1949. He was a good hitter to be sure, playing seven full seasons, parts of four more, and ended up with a .312 career average. But that 1949 triples total was not typical of him, as he didn't top 10 triples in any other season. And 1949 wasn't some sort of freakish triples season, as no one else in either league had more than 13.

Going further back, we find that Snuffy Stirnweiss had 22 in 1945 for the Yankees. Stan Musial had 20 in 1943, Jeff Heath had 20 in 1941, and Joe Vosmick had 20 in 1935. Going back further than that, we find that triples were of course more prevalent. In fact, from 1920-1932, the league leader in both the AL and the NL had 18 or more, and the leaders often had over 20. However, other than Kiki Cuyler's 26 in 1925, no one had more than 23 in a season during that stretch. So that means that if Granderson can get to 24 triples this year, he'll have had the most since in a season since 82 years!

Of course, let's not get too excited. The all-time record for triples in a season seems quite safe. That would be the 36 that Chief Wilson had in 1912 for the Pirates. Like Mitchell described earlier, Wilson was a good hitter over his nine-year career. But that big triples outburst was out of character, as he never had more than 14 in any other season.

And just in time for this posting, I read on the SABR-L discussion list this evening the following from Cyril Morong about Curtis Granderson's season thus far:

He has 15 or more of 2Bs, 3Bs, HRs, SBs this year. Below is a list of all the players to ever do it. Crawford and Samuel each did it twice. Thanks to the Lee Sinins Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. I suppose he has a chance to get up to 20 in all 4. He has 16 HRs and 15 SBs right now. Schulte and Mays are the only ones to get 20 in all 4.

• Carl Crawford
• Juan Samuel
• Babe Herman
• Chuck Klein
• Harry Stovey
• Babe Ruth
• Hugh Duffy
• Jeff Heath
• Ryne Sandberg
• Kiki Cuyler
• Andy Van Slyke
• Ed Delahanty
• Willie Mays
• George Brett
• Sam Thompson
• Roger Connor
• Buck Freeman
• Carl Reynolds
• Lou Gehrig
• Wildfire Schulte
• Paul Waner
• Bob Meusel
• George Sisler
• Minnie Minoso
• Jose Reyes
• Lloyd Moseby
• Charlie Gehringer
• Goose Goslin

An impressive list. Lots of great names there, including many Hall-of-Famers and other stars. One thing that struck me was seeing Babe and Lou on this list, given the 15 SB aspect of it. But Ruth did it in his incredible 1921 season: .378, 44 D, 16 T, 59 HR, 17 SB, 177 R, 171 RBI. And Lou only topped 15 SB once, in 1931, when he hit .341 with 31 D, 15 T, 46 HR, 17 SB, 163 R, and 184 RBI.

And lastly, Granderson isn't the only hitter smashing triples this year, as Jimmy Rollins already has 15 in NL. Who is second to Curtis in the AL? Carl Crawford... with only 9, so Granderson has an impressive lead!

Baseball Lists, Part 12: Pitching, Fielding, Running

Here is Part 12 in my series of baseball entries that note what I am finding interesting as I go through the newly released SABR book The SABR Baseball List & Record Book (available at Amazon). (Here is a link to Part 11 in this series.) This is the last in this series -- I've had a lot of fun doing it!

List 510 is "Pitching Triple Crown Winners (Leading league in Wins, ERA, and Strikeouts)". What pitcher has accomplished this the most often? Grover Alexander. He is the only person to do it in three consecutive seasons, which he did in 1915-1917 for Philadelphia in the NL. Then he did it for Chicago in the NL in 1920 as well. Two pitching greats won the triple crown three times: Walter Johnson and Sandy Koufax. Then there are a few others who have managed the feat twice: Christy Mathewson, Lefty Grove, Lefty Gomez, and Roger Clemens. As Johan Santana led the AL in 2006 with 19 wins, a 2.77 ERA, and 245 Ks, he could one day join this elite crowd.

List 516 is "20 Wins with a Last-place Team" and List 517 is "Highest Percentage of Teams Wins, since 1893". What jumps out at me on these two lists is the 1972 season of Steve Carlton. He won 27 games for the last place Phillies, which is second all-time on the first list. Then in the second list his season is the only one to make it (40% of higher) since 1922. His season is fifth on this list, at 45.8%, as he won 27 of the team's 59 wins.

List 530 is "Most Seasons with 20 Wins, 200 Strikeouts, and an ERA below 3.00". Tops on this list with seven seasons is no big surprise: Walter Johnson. Mildly interesting is that these seasons were consecutive, from 1910 to 1916. But next on the list with six such seasons is Juan Marichal. A great pitcher to be sure, but not who I would have guessed here. After Marichal, there are three pitchers who have done this feat five times. One is old-timer Tim Keefe, the other two all-time greats Christy Mathewson and Roger Clemens.

Lists 545-586 give all-time games, assists, putouts, and so on for each position. I thought I'd summarize an all-time team composed of those players who is best in fielding percentage (minimum 1000 games) by position:

• 1B: Travis Lee .997
• 2B: Ryne Sandberg, Tom Herr, Mickey Morandini .989
• 3B: Mike Lowell .977
• SS: Omar Vizquel .984
• OF: Darryl Hamilton .995, Darren Lewis .994, Terry Puhl .993, Brett Butler .993
• C: Dan Wilson .995
• P: Don Mossi .990, Gary Nolan .990

Similiarly, lists 588-639 give the best single-season games, assists, putouts, and so on for each position. Here is the lineup for best fielding percentage seasons (min. 125 games, 275 IP for pitcher):

• 1B: Steve Garvey 1.000 in 1984
• 2B: Bret Boone .997 in 1997
• 3B: Don Money .989 in 1974
• SS: Cal Ripken .996 in 1990
• OF: Those who have had 1.000 more than once are: Mickey Stanley in 1968 and 1970, Brian Downing in 1982 and 1984, Brett Butler in 1991 and 1993, and Darryl Hamilton in 1996 and 1999.
• C: Mike Matheny 1.000 in 2003
• P: Walter Johnson had 1.000 four times: 1913, 1917, 1922, 1924

And then for the worst single-season fielding percentages (since 1946 only):

• 1B: Dick Stuart .979 in 1963
• 2B: Luis Alicea .957 in 1996
• 3B: Butch Hobson .899 in 1978
• SS: Jose Offerman .935 in 1992
• OF: Alex Johnson .927 in 1969, Lou Brock .936 in 1966, Lonnie Smith .941 in 1983
• C: Thurman Munson .972 in 1975
• P: no list given

List 640 is "Most Career Stolen Bases". I think Rickey Henderson's mark of 1406, way out of front of second place Lou Brock at 938, is one of the safer records in the game. The active leader is Kenny Lofton. Through 2006 he had 599, and so far this year he has stolen another 21, which ties him with Otis Nixon for 15th place all-time. But no active player under 40 has more than 375 steals, so I think Rickey's record is quite safe. Also worth noting from this list is Barry Bonds's appearance with 514 and in 32nd place. I hadn't realized that he is the lone member of the 500-500 club (HR/SB). And even without steroids he would surely have hit 500 HR, so that seems a legit accomplishment.

List 641 is "Highest Career Stolen Base Percentage (Min. 100 Steals)". When I was growing up some players that I new had very high stolen base percentages were Willie Wilson, Davey Lopes, and Julio Cruz. And sure enough, they appear on this list with 83.3%, 83.0%, and 81.5%, respectively. But currently the all-time best is Carlos Beltran at 87.6%.

List 649 is "Highest Stolen Base Percentage in a Season , since 1951 (min. 20 SB)". Only two have had perfect seasons in this regard. Kevin McReynolds with 21 SB in 1988 and Paul Molitor with 20 SB in 1994. I've always heard commentators say what smart baserunner Molitor was -- this kind of season is what they are talking about.

List 702 is "Players who Played in at least 10 Seasons for Two Different Teams". There are three such players, and this makes a great trivia question. I'll give you the answers at the end of this posting.

List 703 is "Most Years Spent with One Franchise". There are 24 players who spent 20 or more years with one team (not necessarily their entire careers). Of these 24, 21 are hall-of-famers. Can you name the three that are not? Again, I'll give the answers at the end of this posting.

Lists 708-715 are of the form "Most Years Together for X Teammates". For two teammates, the most is 19 by Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker from 1977-1995. Next at 18 seasons are Fred Clarke/Honus Wagner, Joe Judge/Sam Rice, and George Brett/Frank White. For three teammates, there is a three way tie at 15 seasons. First there is Ganter/Molitor/Yount of the Brewers from 1978-1992, then interestingly the other two groups are from the Royals: Brett/McRae/White from 1973-1987 and Brett/White/Wilson from 1976-1990. For four teammates there are two cases of 13 seasons: Fred Clarke/Tommy Leach/Deacon Phillippe/Honus Wagner from 1899-1911, and Gates Brown/Bill Freehan/Willie Horton/Mickey Lolich from 1963-1975. This core group of Tigers makes up the record-setting groups for most years together for five, six, seven, eight, and nine teammates as well.

So... for list 702, the answers are Eddie Collins with the Athletics and White Sox, Charlie Hough with the Dodgers and Rangers, and Carlton Fisk with the Red Sox and White Sox.

And for list 703 the answers are Alan Trammell with 20 seasons for the Tigers, Mel Harder with 20 seasons for the Indians, and Phil Cavarretta with 20 seasons for the Cubs.

Baseball Lists, Part 11: More Pitching, Including Roger Nelson

Here is Part 11 in my series of baseball entries that note what I am finding interesting as I go through the newly released SABR book The SABR Baseball List & Record Book (available at Amazon). (Here is a link to Part 10 in this series.)

List #439 is "Lowest Career Batting Average By Opponents (min. 1,500 IP)". Some of the top names on this list would be obvious guesses: Nolan Ryan (.204), Sandy Koufax (.205), and Pedro Martinez (.209). But then tied with Pedro at .209 is Sid Fernandez -- I forgot how good he was. Next is another surprise to me: Andy Messersmith with .212. J.R. Richard is tied with him and is no surprise to me, as he was dominating. Sam McDowell was dominating too, and comes in seventh on this list at .215. Hoyt Wilhelm is next at .216, and then the overpowering Randy Johnson at .217. Rounding out the top-10 is old-timer Ed Walsh at .218. What about Walter Johnson? He comes in 22nd with a .227 mark. Between Walsh and Johnson are such surprises as Mario Soto .220, Bob Turley .220, Orval Overall .223, Jeff Tesreau .223, and incredibly, Jose DeLeon .224. These guys all rate higher in this regard than not only Johnson, but also the likes of dominating hurlers like Seaver .226, Gibson .228, Gossage .228, Clemens .228, and Feller .231.

List #440 is the similar "Lowest Career On-base Percentage by Opponents (min. 1,500 IP)". This one shows the great numbers of Pedro Martinez, as he is the only recent pitcher in the top 15. His .270 mark compares favorably to Sandy Koufax with .275 and Juan Marichal at .277.

List #499 is "Fewest Walks per 9 Innings in a Season, since 1893 (min. 1.0 IP per scheduled game)". Did you know a record was set in 2005? That's right, Carlos Silva allowed only 0.43 walks per nine innings that year, shattering the old mark of 0.62 held by Christ Mathewson in 1913 and Babe Adams in 1920. Granted not as big of a story as Bonds breaking Aaron's lifetime HR record, but a record nonetheless.

List #500 is the similar "Most Strikeouts per 9 Innings in a Season, since 1893 (min. 1.0 IP per scheduled game)". As you'd expect, certain names dominate this list. But what I found striking was just how much Randy Johnson dominates the list. He has 6 of the top 8 seasons on this list. He is tops with 13.41 in 2001, and then has spots 4-8 as well. Second place is Pedro Martinez's 13.20 in 1999, and third is Kerry Wood's 12.58 in 1998. But that isn't all: this list shows the top 37 seasons, and Johnson has 11 of them. Nolan Ryan has seven seasons in the list, and Pedro and Curt Schilling are next with 4 seasons each.

List #504 is "Fewest Base Runners Allowed per 9 Innings in a Season, since 1893 (min. 1.0 IP per scheduled game)". Pedro Martinez's 2000 season tops the list with a 7.22 mark. Next is Walter Johnson's 1913 season at 7.26, and then Addie Joss' 1908 season at 7.31. In fact, in the top 30 there are only two seasons from the past 30 years: Pedro's 2000 season adn Greg Maddux's 1995 season which ranks 6th at 7.47. The entire list shown has the top 42, and all the pitchers are guys I'd heard of (and most are big-name stars and hall-of-famers). But one stood out as odd: Roger Nelson who in 1972 posted a 7.89 mark for Kansas City. So I looked him up: He pitched for several teams from 1967-1976, but only twice pitched 100+ innings. One of those seasons was 1972, when he started 19 games, pitched in another 15 in relief, pitched 173.3 innings, had 10 complete games including 6 shutouts, posted an 11-6 record with a 2.08 ERA, and allowed only 120 hits and 31 walks. An impressive season, in a less-than impressive career.

Baseball Lists, Part 10: Pitching, Including Toad Ramsey

Here is Part 10 in my series of baseball entries that note what I am finding interesting as I go through the newly released SABR book The SABR Baseball List & Record Book (available at Amazon). (Here is a link to Part 9 in this series.)

First, one last list from the Hitting section...

List #367 is "Most RBI in First 10 Seasons". The all-time leader here is Joe DiMaggio with 1,277. Right behind him is Al Simmons with 1275. For each they averaged about 127 per season in their first 10 seasons, a very impressive feat. Ted Williams is third with 1258. Through 2006, a total of 24 players had over 1000 RBIs in their first ten seasons (the players who averaged 100+ RBI during those years). The highest recent player was Jeff Bagwell, who is 7th on this list with 1093. Also making it are Frank Thomas 1040, Manny Ramirez 1036, Albert Belle 1019, and Ken Griffey Jr. 1018. I wondered about A-Rod and Vladimir Guerrero, but they had some brief initial seasons, so that keeps them making this list. But watch out, because Albert Pujols is well on his way. In his first six seasons he had 758 RBI. So even if he only averages 100 from 2007-2010, that would earn him fourth on this list. He'll need to average 125 RBI though to tie him with Ted Williams for third, which might be tough given his good but un-Pujols-like season so far this year.

Now for some pitching lists...

List #389 is "Best Career Winning Percentage by a Pitcher (Min. 100 wins)". While the list includes everyone over .620 (several dozen), I'll focus just on the top 10. There are two active pitchers in this top 10, and I would only have guessed one of them. Best all-time is Spud Chandler (109-43, .717), who barely meets the minimum win criterion. Second all-time is the active hurler I would have guessed: Pedro Martinez (206-92, .691). Next is a name you likely aren't familiar with: Dave Foutz (147-66, .690), who was both a pitcher and regular position player for many years in the late 19th century. In the 4th-9th spot are three I would have guessed (Whitey Ford, Lefty Grove, and Joe Wood), and three that I wouldn't have (Bob Caruthers, Don Gullett, and Vic Raschi). And then 10th is the other active pitcher, Tim Hudson (119-60, .665). He has never had a losing season, and so far in 2007 Tim is 11-5, raising his career percentage to .667.

List #402 is "Most Career Walks by a Pitcher, since 1893". All baseball fans know that Nolan Ryan is the all-time strikeout leader (5714), and by a wide margin. And many fans know that he is also the all-time walks leader. I would have assumed that too was by a wide margin, though I didn't realize just how wide. He had 2795 walks, while Steve Carlton is second with 1833. So Ryan had more than 50% more than any other pitcher! After Carlton the next few are all close behind: Phil Niekro 1809, Early Wynn 1775, Bob Feller, 1764, and so on.

List #422 is "Pitchers Whose Careers Lasted 10 or More Seasons and Never Had a Losing Record". Through 2006 there were only nine such pitchers, with only one active. This year would be Tim Hudson's ninth winning season, so if he does well next year he'll join this list. How many of the existing nine can you name? Can you name the one active pitcher? I'll give the list at the end of this post.

List #426 is "Most Career Games with 15 or More Strikeouts". 15 Ks in a game is a lot, so doing this many times over is a sign of dominance. There have been 21 pitchers who have done it 3 times or more. Only four have done it 10 times or more. Two are Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez, with 10 times each. But way beyond that are Nolan Ryan with 26 and Randy Johnson with 29! None of the others on this list are surprises to me, though some are not names anyone would likely have guessed quickly (Bob Veale, Don Wilson, Frank Tanana are amongst those to strikeout 15+ three times). The one name that was new to me on this list was Toad Ramsey, and with good reason as he was a 19th century hurler who only played five full seasons. And he is one of those guys whose numbers are not easy to relate to, e.g., he had 499 strikeouts in 589 IP in 1886 (he completed 66 of his 67 games started that year). Those 499 Ks weren't even good enough to lead the league, as Matt "Matches" Kilroy managed 513 that year.

List #430 is "Most Career 1-0 Games Won". If given a few minutes, I would have been able to guess the leader here. Walter Johnson, who is second all-time in wins as such, played his entire career for the Washington Senators. During that era they did have some good seasons, but they also had many poor ones, so it would make sense that Johnson wouldn't always get a lot of run support, and hence would have to win many of his games 1-0. But the margin of lead on this list is impressive. Johnson won 38 games 1-0, while second place is Grover Alexander with 17. Next is Bert Blyleven with 15 -- a nice additional piece of evidence for the argument that Bert should be in the hall-of-fame.

OK, now for the answers to list #422. Through 2006, only two pitchers had 13-year careers without a losing season: Deacon Phillippe (1899-1911) and Urban Shocker (1916-1928). Dizzy Dean pitched 12 seasons, so he is next in line. Tied with him as of now is Andy Pettitte, the only active pitcher to make this list. But as of this writing he is 7-7 in 2007, so his inclusion on this list is in jeopardy. The aforementioned Dave Foutz and Spud Chandler are two of three to have an 11-year career without a losing season. The other is likely one you couldn't have guessed: Jay Powell who was a reliever from 1995-2005... a 36-25 career record, does that really count?! And lastly we have two with 10-year careers who make this list. Hall-of-Famer Joe McGinnity was an amazing 246-142 from 1899-1908. And... drum roll... Babe Ruth pitched in 10 seasons, from 1914-1919 for the Red Sox of course, but then also a total of five games in four seasons for the Yankees (1920-21, 1930, 1933), winning all five of those games. So that is a trick answer, but it counts!

2007 Baseball HOF: Ripken and Gwynn

Today was the 2007 Baseball Hall of Fame induction ceremony. The headliners were Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken, two class acts who are well-deserving of their HOF status (even their speeches today were classy). They both played their entire careers with one team (Padres and Orioles, respectively), something that is increasingly rare. And they were both fan favorites for that reason, amongst others.

Local sports columnist Bob Mathews wrote a column discussing Cal Ripken recently, in anticipation of the induction ceremony today. Cal has a connection with Rochester, as he played for our Red Wings, who at that time were the AAA affiliate for the Orioles. People around here are big fans of Ripken, and generally know about him than the average fan around the country (minus those in Baltimore of course).

So it was natural for the local sports editor to write a column considering where Ripken ranks amongst HOF Shortstops. He rates Ripken second, behind only Honus Wagner. Choosing Wagner first is a no-brainer, as he clearly remains the all-time best SS. If Alex Rodriguez hadn't switched positions to 3B, one could at least begin asking the question if he might surpass Honus someday, but the point seems moot at the moment.

Is Cal the second best SS all-time? That is far more debatable. To compare with Bob's selections, lets consider Bill James' list from 2001 in The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. Mr. James is, after all, arguably the most well-respected author in the area of baseball player analysis. He of course rates Honus tops amongst SS, but then he surprisingly has Arky Vaughn rated second (and he notes this was even a surprise to him). Mathews ranks Arky fourth, which is a solid ranking to be sure, behind Ripken and Ernie Banks. Whenever I think about this issue I always note that both Wagner and Vaughn played for the Pirates for most of their careers... meaning that the Pirates have arguably the top two, or at least the top and another in the top five, SS of all time. That is pretty amazing.

James does rate Ripken third though, so Mathews rating of him as second best is not out of line really. James then lists Yount as 4th and Banks as 5th, which means that since Mathews has Yount as 5th, they have the same top five all-time SS -- just in a different order after Honus at the top.

While James makes as good a case for Vaughn as he can, I guess my own list would have them switched. I'd go with Wagner, Ripken, Vaughn, Banks, Yount. The thing about Banks and Yount is that they played a lot fo their careers at other positions, 1B for Banks and OF for Yount. But if you don't subtract points for that too much, they deserve to be 4th and 5th here.

I don't think any non-HOF shortstops would be good enough to crack this top five. Some who are eligible and not yet in the HOF are clearly better than some who are (Alan Trammell is better than Travis Jackson for instance). Barry Larkin is arguably a HOFer, but not a top-five SS of all-time. If A-Rod returns to SS, then he could shake up this list when he gets into the HOF. And Derek Jeter? Could he end up with a better career than Vaughn, Banks, or Yount? Quite possibly I think.

Baseball Lists, Part 9: Lists of Teammates

Here is Part 9 in my series of baseball entries that note what I am finding interesting as I go through the newly released SABR book The SABR Baseball List & Record Book (available at Amazon). (Here is a link to Part 8 in this series.)

List 305 is "Batters with 200 Hits and Less than a .300 Batting Average". This been done 8 times, by 8 different players. The lowest average was Juan Pierre with .292 and 204 hits just last year. Before that the most recent was Bill Buckner with .299 and 201 hits in 1985. It happened three times in the 1970s: Buddy Bell (1979, .299, 200 hits), Ralph Garr (1973, .299, 200 hits), and Matty Alou (1970, .297, 201 hits). It happened twice in the 1960s, as these have the highest hit totals on the list: Lou Brock (1967, .299, 206 hits) and Maury Wills (1962, .299, 208 hits). Before that it happened just once, as Jo-Jo Moore hit .295 with 201 hits in 1935.

List 334 is "Most Home Runs by Three Teammates in a Season". This list shows the top 5 trios. Can you name them? I'll give the answers at the bottom of this post.

List 339 is "Most Career Home Runs by Two Brothers (Each having at least one)". All long-time baseball fans know the initially tricky answer to this question. Its the Aaron brothers of course, since Tommie Aaron belted 13 to go with brother Hank's 755. That isn't very satisfying though. So what about a list of the top brother HR duos where each brother has at least 100? The top five (only five?) are shown as part of this list. Can you name them? Again, I'll list them at the end of this post.

List 356 is "Teams with Most Batters with 100 RBI in a Season". An interesting list. There have been 24 teams that have had 4 batters with 100+ RBI. But only once has a team had five such hitters: the 1936 Yankees. They had Gehrig (152), DiMaggio (125), Lazzeri (109), Dickey (107), and the less well known George Selkirk (107). Studying 25 teams with 4 or more 100+ RBI hitters, we can again see the rise and fall of offensive eras over time. From 1922 - 1940 there were 12 such teams. From 1941 - 1995 there were only 2 such teams -- and those weren't until the 1977 Red Sox (Rice, Hobson, Fisk, Yaz) and the 1982 Brewers (Coopers, Yount, Thomas, Oglivie). Then from 1996 - 2006 there have been the other 11 such teams. 1999 was a particularly big year in this regard, as five teams managed this feat: Indians, Yankees, Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies. That is pretty incredible.

List 357 is similar, as it is "Teams with Most Batters with 200 Hits in a Season". There have been 10 teams with three such players, but only two have had four such players. The first was the 1929 Phillies: Lefty O'Doul (254), Chuck Klein (219), Fresco Thompson (202), and Pinky Whitney (200). Remember Fresco Thompson? No? He was the 2B for the club, but only played four full seasons in the majors. And Pinky Whitney not ring a bell? He played mostly 3B for the Phillies and the Boston Braves, and had a pretty good career: .295 Avg, 4 seasons with 100+ RBI even with limited power, and had 200+ hits twice. And O'Doul's total of 254 that year is of course impressive. He was an interesting case. After not making it as a big league pitcher, he made a comeback as an outfielder starting at age 31, and had several fine years. He ended up with a .349 career average, and that 1929 season was impressive: 254 hits, 152 runs, 32 HR, 122 RBI, and a .398 average.

The other time four teams had four 200 hit batters was the 1937 Tigers: Gee Walker (213), Charlie Gehringer (209), Pete Fox (208), Hank Greenberg (200). And again, considering the 12 teams on this list, I note that 9 of them were from the years 1920 - 1937. The other three were 1963 Cardinals, 1982 Brewers (again!), and the 1991 Rangers.

OK, now for the trivia answers. First, I'll admit that list 334 was a bit of a trick. The most HRs by three teammates in a season? Naturally it is 143 by the 1961 Yankees' Maris (61), Mantle (54), and Skowron (28). But then the next three on this list are also from the 1961 Yankees, just substituting other players for Skowron: Berra (22), Blanchard (21), Howard (21). That team hit a lot of Homers! Then fifth is, as you might have guessed, the 2001 Giants with 132 HR from Bonds (73), Aurilia (37), and Kent (22).

And the other question I posed was for list 339, limiting it to most career homeruns by two brothers who each had 100+. Top on this are Joe and Vince DiMaggio, who had 361 and 125, respectively (by the way, Dom had only 87). Then next are Ken and Clete Boyer, with 282 and 162. Then Bret and Aaron Boone, who through 2006 had 252 and 115. Then Roberto and Sandy Alomar who have 210 and 112. And fifth on this list are Bob and Irish Meusel with 156 and 106.

Baseball Lists, Part 8: Many Seasonal Records

Here is Part 8 in my series of baseball entries that note what I am finding interesting as I go through the newly released SABR book The SABR Baseball List & Record Book (available at Amazon). (Here is a link to Part 7 in this series.)

In list 158 "Four Home Runs in a Game", I learned that twice when this happened it was in a losing effort. Imagine that?! Ed Delahanty on July 13, 1896 (when HR weren't even that common!), and then when Bob Horner did it on Jul 6, 1986.

In list 179 "Most At-Bats in a Season, since 1893", I learned that Willie Wilson was still the leader here with his 705 at-bats in 1980 for the Royals. I knew he had the record at that time, but didn't realize that he still had it 25+ years later. Ichiro Suzuki came as close as you can in 2004 when he had 704 at-bats, and then last year Juan Pierre had 699.

In list 184 "Most Plate Appearances in a Season, since 1893", I learned that Wilson's 1980 season of many at-bats doesn't rank very well in terms of plate-appearances -- not even in the top 25. He didn't walk much at all, so his total PA that year was "only" 745. The all-time record here is 773, by Lenny Dykstra for the Phillies in 1993. Second is Pete Rose's 771 from 1974. Ichiro Suzuki's 2004 campaign mentioned earlier resulted in 762 total PAs, good enough for fifth all-time.

List 259 "Most Intentional Walks in a Season, since 1955". Ouch... Barry Bonds leads here by an insane amount. His 120 in 2004 is almost twice his 68 from 2002, or his 61 from 2003. Then in distant fourth place is Willie McCovey's 45 from 1969.

List 260 "Batters with 20 Doubles, 20 Triples, and 20 Home Runs in a Season". What a fascinating list. Just five players have done this. I highly doubt anyone could name all five. I'll list them at the bottom of this post... think it over!

List 262 "More Walks Received than Games Played in a Season (min. 100 Walks)". Of course Babe Ruth (2), Ted Williams (5), and Barry Bonds (4) appear more than once on this list. But the other players who have done this are not as obvious: Mark McGwire in 1998, Jack Clark in 1987, Mickey Mantle in 1957, and Eddie Joost in 1949.

List 270 "Batters Who Led the League in Hits and Walks in the Same Season". Another good one for trivia purposes! There are six players who have done this (one time each). Can you name any of them? Given information above, one might be easy. Again, see the bottom of this post for the answers.

List 282 "Most Consecutive Games with an Extra-Base Hit". How did I miss this record-tying event last year? Chipper Jones had 14 consecutive games with an extra base hit, from June 26 through July 16. That tied Paul Waner's record (from June 3 to Jun 19 in 1927). I must have missed SportsCenter the day Jones tied it!

List 283 "Longest Consecutive Game On-base Streaks". We all know about Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak. But who has the longest on-base streak? Not Joe it turns out, he ranks second with a 74 game streak. The record is held by his rival, the great Ted Williams who had an 84 game streak in 1949. Williams also had a 69-game streak in 1941, which is third all-time. Then old-timer Bill Joyce is fourth with his 64-game streak from 1891. Then, surprising to me, is Orlando Cabrera with a 63-game on-base streak from last year -- I also don't remember hearing about that on SportsCenter either!

List 288 "40 Home Runs and 200 Hits in a Season". This list, as well as anything I've seen, demonstrates the rise and fall of baseball statistics throughout the decades. Any serious baseball fans know that the past 15 years or so have seen an explosion in offensive numbers, and that there have been other eras that also had offensive-statistics inflation (e.g., the 1930s). So for this list, we see that 40 HR/200 Hits was achieved 17 times in the 17 seasons from 1921-1937 and 11 times in the 11 seasons from 1996-2006. But it was only accomplished 4 times in the 58 seasons from 1938-1995. Wow... that is very impressive. Also of note is that Babe Ruth did this 3 times, but Lou Gehrig did it 5 times. It looks like the only other players to do it twice were Chuck Klein, Jimmie Foxx, and Mo Vaughn.

List 291 "50 Doubles and 30 Home Runs in a Season". This has been 19 times through 2006. An assortment of all-time great hitters have done it, with only three players having done it twice. Chuck Klein had 59 D and 40 HR in 1930 and then 50 D and 38 HR in 1932. Through 1994 this had been done only 8 times, with the other 11 times coming since then. During that span Todd Helton did it in 2000 and 2001, and then Albert Pujols in 2003 and 2004. The great Pujols could easily do it again, which would leave him alone at the top of this particular category.

OK, now for the answers to the two I left for you to think about. For list 260, we have George Brett in 1979; Willie Mays in 1957, Jeff Heath in 1941, Jim Bottomley in 1928, and Frank Schulte in 1911. I was especially surprised to see someone from 1911 make this list! And then for list 270, the perhaps easy one was Lenny Dykstra from 1993, since I had previously mentioned that he set the record for the most plate appearances that year. Before him were Carl Yastrzemski in 1963, Richie Ashburn in 1958, Rogers Hornsby in 1924, and then old-timers Billy Hamilton in 1891, and Ross Barnes in 1876.

Recent Baseball Items from Sports Illustrated

The June 18 issue of Sports Illustrated had a nice cover story about Omar Minaya, the GM of the Mets. I didn't know much about him, and this article does a nice job giving his story, rising from the Dominican Republic, quite steadily, to eventually reach his current lofty and powerful position. And Minaya sounds like quite an interesting person -- "one of the good guys" you could say. I especially liked this paragraph:

The tide had shifted. Teams were hiring Ivy League grads to be their G.M.'s, lawyers and businessmen and statmongers who'd never hit fungoes to a flock of skinny 16-year-olds and picked out the weed that would bloom five years later. O's frustration grew. "Look, if you want paperwork, I'm not your guy," he'd tell his inquisitors. "I see the job in bigger terms. Paperwork, that's false hustle. It takes away creativity. People who are into paperwork are into covering their asses, so if things go wrong they can point to all the work they did. They're thinking more about failure than success. The more paperwork the opposition does, the better my chances are. Know what I'm sayin'?"

That is a great perspective!

Then in the June2-9 double issue there is "The Beautiful Losers: An Oral History of the Philadelphia Phillies." After a brief introduction, there are a few dozen quotations about the historically dreadful Phillies. Perhaps my favorite of these quotes was this one:

"Vince DiMaggio hit a pinch grand slam, yet the Phillies still got beat by the Pirates. Vince led the National League in strikeouts that season despite missing almost all of September with an injury. It figures we got Vince, and not Joe or Dom. When brothers played in the majors, the Phillies usually wound up with the one who produced less. We had Harry Coveleski instead of Stan, Irish Meusel instead of Bob, Frank Torre instead of Joe, Ken Brett instead of George, Mike Maddux instead of Greg, Rick Surhoff instead of B.J. and Jeremy Giambi instead of Jason. If there had been a Zeppo Alou, the Phillies would have signed him."
-- Harold Herman, 90-year-old fan

Then also in that issue there is a good story in the "Where Are They Now?" section about Mario Mendoza, the player who has been forever immortalized via the reference "Mendoza Line" -- which for those who don't know refers to a .200 batting average, which is quite low. Hence being "below the Mendoza Line" is a bad thing.

Baseball Lists, Part 7: Career HR Oddities

Here is Part 7 in my series of baseball entries that note what I am finding interesting as I go through the newly released SABR book The SABR Baseball List & Record Book (available at Amazon). (Here is a link to Part 6 in this series.)

List 140 gives the three players retired with fewer than 200 career home runs but who hit 40+ in a season. Can you name them? I wouldn't have been able to. I'll give them at the end of this post.

List 141 is similar and also has three members. Which players had fewer than 300 career home runs but managed to hit 50+ in a season? Hint: they all have 200+ career HR. I would have been able to guess all three here, as I consider this a much easier scenario to guess than List 140 is. Again, see bottom of this post for the answers.

List 142 is "Most Career Home Runs Without Ever Hitting 20 In a Season". Number one on the list is Ron Fairly, who hit 215 over 21 seasons for the Dodgers, Expos, and other teams. His top HR total was in his second to last season, in 1977, when he hit 19 as a DH/1B/OF for the Blue Jays.

Next on the list is Yankees great 2B Tony Lazzeri with 178. A key member of the late 1920s - 1930s Yankees dynasty, Lazzeri had 100+ RBI seven times, but never had more than 18 HR in a season (a total he managed four times).

Third and fourth on this list are a couple of fine-hitting first-basemen, neither of whom had a lot of power: Bill Buckner (174) and Mark Grace (173). They each had 15+ HR four times, but never topped 20 in a season.

The rest noted in this list are also interesting: Tim Raines (170), Enos Slaughter (169), Jose Cruz Sr. (165), Claudell Washington (164), Bill Madlock (163), Keith Hernandez (162), Pete Rose (160), Dan Driessen (153), Carney Lansford (151), Shawon Dunston (150).

List 144 is similar: "Most Career Home Runs without ever Hitting 30 in a Season". The top two on this list were slightly surprising to me. First is the great Al Kaline with 399. He had 29 HR twice, and 27 HR four other times, but never belted 30 in a season. Next is Harold Baines who had 384, and 11 times had 20+ HR in a season, but never reached 30. That is pretty amazing.

There is then a big dropoff for third place, so far less surprising to me are Rickey Henderson (297), Paul O'Neill (281), Craig Biggio (281), Brian Downing (275), Brook Robinson (268), Joe Morgan (268), George Hendrick (267), Tim Wallach (260), Vada Pinson (256), Kirk Gibson (255), John Olerud (255), and Robin Yount (251). Some great players there, but none of them are people I would have guessed had ever hit 30+ HR in a season.

And list 145 is also similar: "Most Career Home Runs without ever Hitting 40 in a Season". The top two here I could have guessed. Eddie Murray was a great hitter, belting 504 HR in his career. He had between 25-33 in a season 12 times, but never had 34, let alone 40. Fred McGriff ended up with 493 in his career, and did have some higher totals, as he six times hit 34-37 in a season -- but never 40.

More surprising is Stan Musial with 475 appearing on this list. If you'd asked me I would have guessed he would have hit 40 at least once. He did hit 39 in 1948, and hit 30+ five other times. Next up is someone who I consider more like Murray and McGriff in this regard: Dave Winfield with 465. He only had 30+ three times, hitting 20+ another 12 times. Then fifth is of course Cal Ripken with 431, followed by Al Kaline making this list as well with his 399. The others listed are Joe Carter (396), Graig Nettles (389), Dwight Evans (385), Harold Baines (384), Carlton Fisk (376), Gary Gaetti (360), Yogi Berra (358), Lee May (354), Chili Davis (350).

OK, so now the answers to the earlier ones I turned into trivia questions. For list 140, the three guys are Al Rosen with 192 HR and hit 43 in 1953, Jim Gentile with 179 HR and hit 46 in 1961, and Davey Johnson with 136 HR and hit 43 in 1973. For list 141, the three guys are Roger Maris with 275 HR and hit 61 in 1961, Hack Wilson with 244 and hit 56 in 1930, and Brady Anderson with 210 HR and hit 50 in 1996.

Baseball Lists, Part 6: More Fun HR Lists

Here is Part 6 in my series of baseball entries that note what I am finding interesting as I go through the newly released SABR book The SABR Baseball List & Record Book (available at Amazon). (Here is a link to Part 5 in this series.)

List 115 is "Teammates Hitting Home Runs Most Times in the Same Game". If asked this as a trivia question, I would have gotten the first three, though perhaps not in this order as it is surprisingly close: Aaron/Mathews 75, Gehrig/Ruth 73, and Mays/McCovey 68. But then right after them was a surprise for me: Hodges/Snider 67. And it would have taken me a while to guess then next several pairings as well: Santo/B.Williams 64, Killebrew/B. Allison 61, Mathews/J. Adcock 56, Rice/Dw. Evans 56. I would have likely guessed the 9th pairing higher than many of those, that being Mantle/Berra 55. And the highest active combination through 2006? Coming in a tie for 9th on the list is Chipper Jones and Andruw Jones with 55. Other active combos include Edmonds/Pujols 46 and Ramirez/Ortiz 42. What about Ruth and someone not named Gehrig? He does appear again at 14th with 47, paired this time with Bob Meusel.

List 116 is "Players with 100+ Home Runs for Three Different Teams". Can you name them? I consider two to be somewhat easy, but the third not at all. I'll give the answer at the bottom of this posting, so think about it before scrolling down.

List 118 is "Best Career Strikeout to Home Run Ratio (Min. 250 HR)". Has anyone had 250+ HR and had more HR than strikeouts? According to this source, the answer is no. But Joe DiMaggio came the closest, histting 361 HR and striking out only 369 times, which is a 1.02 SO/HR ratio. Second is another Yankee great, Yogi Berra whose ration was 1.16. Ted Kluszewski is third with a 1.31 ratio, and then Ted Williams is 4th at 1.36 -- making him the highest on this list who is in the 500 HR club. The active players on this list (top 21) are Albert Pujols 1.58, Vladimir Guerrero 1.99, Barry Bonds 2.03, Gary Sheffield 2.13, and Todd Helton 2.40 -- though at this point we are pretty far removed from the 1.02 ratio that DiMaggio had!

List 119 is "Most Career Extra-Inning Home Runs". Willie Mays ranks first with 22, Babe Ruth and Frank Robinson are tied for third with 16, and then Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle, and Hank Aaron are tied for fifth with 14. But amongst these all-time HR leaders, who comes in second with 18? Jack Clark -- and don't tell me you guessed that!

List 120 is "Most Career Grand Slams". I've long know that Lou Gehrig is the all-time leader here with 23. And I've also known that Eddie Murray was up there with 19, Willie McCovey with 18, and the surprising-to-some Robin Ventura with 18. But what I didn't realize was that Manny Ramirez was now second all-time with 20 (through 2006). So that is a record that could be broken soon.

List 121 is "Most Career Leadoff Home Runs". Speaking of records breaking, here is one that might not get broken for a long time. Rickey Henderson is way out in front with 81, with Craig Biggio (through 2006) is in second place with 50. Amongst active players, Ray Durham has 34 (5th overall), and Alfonso Soriano has 32 (8th overall). I guess if Soriano stays in the leadoff spot he climb this list quickly, but it'd be tough to catch Rickey. But with of his career records is more secure, this one or his all-time SB total?

For the answers to the List 116 teaser... The first "easy" one is Reggie Jackson. He had 269 with the KC/Oakland A's, then 144 with the Yankees, then 123 with the Angels. The other "easy" one is A-Rod, who had 189 with Seattle, then 156 with Texas, and through 2006 already had 119 for the Yankees. In my opinion, the tough one was the third, which is Darrell Evans. He had 131 for Atlanta, 142 for SF, and 141 for Detroit.

2007 All-Star Rosters

So they've announced the all-star rosters for 2007. Overall, the fans seemed to have done a pretty good job this year. For the AL, the common complaint for the starters is that Ivan Rodriguez was chosen over Victor Martinez or Jorge Posada, and that is a valid complaint (I-Rod is a great player, just not putting up the numbers this year), but there have been far worse fan selections in the past. And David Ortiz being listed as a 1B (since no DH vote) isn't the fan's fault. For the NL it is a close call between Wright and Cabrera at 3B, and the selection of Beltran as a starter in the OF is certainly debateable (though his recent 4 HR in two games helps his cause).

As for the full rosters, I'll mention a few people who have been "snubbed", and who one can certainly make a good argument for. Of course, part of the problem is the limited number of roster spots given the expansion of the leagues and the continued requirement that every team have at least one player chosen. This leads to SP Gil Meche (5-6, 3.28) of the Royals making the AL roster, in place of say Erik Bedard who leads all the majors in strikeouts thus far. Or what about Jeremy Bonderman (9-1, 3.58) or even Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-5, 3.80)?

For pitchers in the NL, the most glaring mistake was the selection of RP Brian Fuentes (0-4, 20 SV, 4.17) of the Rockies. This wasn't even done to fulfill the one-per-team requirement, as OF Matt Holidays was also selected (and rightly so). Instead of Fuentes, I can think of several of more deserving pitchers, starting with Chris Young (8-3, 2.14) of the Padres. Or John Maine (9-4, 2.73) of the Mets? Or how about Tom Gorzelanny (8-4, 3.05), who could have been the Pirates lone selection (in place of 2b Freddy Sanchez)? Or Tim Hudson (8-5, 3.17) of the Braves? Or Aaron Harang (8-2, 3.80) of the Reds or Brandon Webb (8-5, 3.05) of the Diamondbacks? Or if you want another reliever, then I'd choose at least Jason Isringhausen (3-0, 15 SV, 1.67) over Fuentes.

For the batting reserves in the AL, SS Michael Young has only recently come on strong so one could make the case for others for his spot. Someone from the Rangers is required though, so if not Young, then only OF Sammy Sosa seems a candidate (something few would have predicted during spring training!). And the Tigers are loaded with OF talent (and talent everywhere it seems), so its a shame that Gary Sheffield (coming on strong) and Curtis Granderson (an amazing 15 triples already!) couldn't find a spot.

In the NL, I had heard some speculation that 1B Ryan Howard's recent awakening after a horrible start and stint on the DL might earn him a spot. But Derek Lee has earned a spot, and it is hard to keep Albert Pujols off the roster even if this is a disappointing year by his standards. Funny thing, he is the only rep from the Cardinals on the roster! But what really kept Howard off was the need to have a player from the Nationals, where 1B Dmitri Young has been a pleasant surprise. With his .340 average you could make a case for him anyway.

The selections of two reserve NL 2B is baffling to me. Freddy Sanchez (.301, 1 HR, 0 SB) is the lone Pirate rep, but as I said above they could have taken Gorzelanny over Fuentes to fulfill that need. And Orlando Hudson (.302, 7 HR) of the Diamondbacks isn't even the lone member from that team is RP Jose Valverde was rightly chosen also. What this means is that a third SS can't be chosen. With Jose Reyes as the starter, and J.J. Hardy a legit backup, this means Jimmy Rollins is left off the team. But he is hitting .283, with 20 doubles, 10 triples, 14 HR, and 15 SB (vs. only 3 CS). Surely he is more deserving than Sanchez or Hudson?

On Pitchers and the HOF

Bob Matthews (sports editor for my local paper) had another good column today on various players and their chances for the Baseball Hall of Fame. This time his focus was on active pitchers with 200 or more wins.

I agree with most of his assessments. I don't rate Schilling as high as he does -- 70-30 chance to make it. His 213-142 record, 3.46 ERA, and obvious post-season heroics just aren't enough for me. If he can somehow manage a couple more quality seasons, or even more post-season heroics, then my view will of course change.

I found Bob's comment about Kenny Rogers to be pretty funny. After summing up his numbers, he wrote "A claim to fame is being the only 200-plus game winner in baseball history to be less famous than a singer with the same name." LOL

And he gives John Smoltz a 90/10 chance of making it to the HOF. I'd say at this point Smoltz is 100%, though given the way the voting works he might not be a first-ballot HOFer.

Baseball Lists, Part 5: HRs by Position

Here is Part 5 in my series of baseball entries that note what I am finding interesting as I go through the newly released SABR book The SABR Baseball List & Record Book (available at Amazon). (Here is a link to Part 4 in this series.)

I've been waiting a few weeks to write this one, because I needed a particular event to occur this season. It was delayed because of inter-league play, as you'll understand in a minute.

Lists 103-111 show the top HR hitters by position -- that is, the most HR hit while playing each defensive position. So at Catcher we have Mike Piazza at 396, Carlton Fisk 351, Johnny Bench 327, Yogi Berra 306, and then Lance Parrish 299. I wouldn't have remembered Parrish as being up that high.

At 1B there is Mark McGwire with 566, then Lou Gehrig 493, Jimmie Fox 482 (he played some C early in his career), Fred McGriff 462, and so on. Willie McCovey had 521 career knocks, but here ranks 7th with 439, because he played some OF early in his career. And Eddie Murray had 504 career HR, but only 409 at 1B because he hit as the DH in about a fifth of his games played.

At 2B active slugger Jeff Kent leads with 319, plus he has 9 more this year too. Next is Ryne Sandberg with 277, then Joe Morgan 266, Rogers Hornsby 265, and even Bret Boone with 251.

At 3B, of course Mike Schmidt is tops with 509, as apparently his 39 other HR came while playing other positions or pinch hitting. Eddie Mathews is next with 486, and then Graig Nettles with 368. Like Parrish at catcher, I wouldn't have immediately have thought of Nettles this high on the list, but it makes sense.

SS is an interesting list. Cal Ripken has 345 and remains the narrow leader here, but only because A-Rod is playing 3B these days. He has 344, so if ever hits two or more while playing SS again, he'll take over the top spot. Ernie Banks is only in third place with 277, since he split his career between SS and 1B. Miguel Tejada could also pass Ripken one day, as he is currently fourth with 237 (plus 7 more so far this year), and is only 31 years old.

For LF, we have Barry Bonds way out in front with 698, then Ted Williams 477, Ralph Kiner 334, and even Luis Gonzalez with 326. He can claim he hit more HR as a LF than the mighty Babe Ruth, who comes in fifth with 313 (though Ruth is also currently fifth on the list for RF!).

For CF, Willie Mays has 640, but Ken Griffey Jr. has a shot at catching him as he has 540 plus 18 so far in 2007. Mickey Mantle is in third place with 431, and then Duke Snider with 356, and Joe Dimaggio with 344. Andruw Jones should rise up this list, as he was in 7th place with 328 through 2006.

In RF, Sammy Sosa is in first place with 536, having edged past Hank Aaron with 527. Mel Ott 433, Reggie Jackson 431, and again Babe Ruth 354 round out the top five. As long as he can continue to play RF as opposed to DH, Vlad Guerrero will rise in this list from his current 7th place spot with 325 through 2006.

And lastly, today Frank Thomas hit his 244th as a DH (496th HR overall), surpassing Edgar Martinez for tops amongst designated hitters. Harold Baines ranks third with 236, and then Don Baylor is in fourth with 219, although David Ortiz had 192 through 2006 and is climbing this list fast. It was Mr. Thomas that kept me from posting this one sooner, as I knew he was on the verge on passing Martinez.

Baseball Lists, Part 4: Walks and HBP

Here is Part 4 in my series of baseball entries that note what I am finding interesting as I go through the newly released SABR book The SABR Baseball List & Record Book (available at Amazon). (Here is a link to Part 3 in this series.)

List 078 "Most Career Hit by a Pitch" reminded me that Craig Biggio is on the verge of breaking the all-time HBP record! Going into 2007 he had 282, just five behind turn-of-the-century player Hughie Jennings' 287. So far this season he has been hit once, so he needs 4 more to tie. Seems likely he'll get it this year, as he had 9 last year and 10+ every year from 1995-2005. His career high was 34 in 1997. Jennings' career total is what it is because he got nailed a large number of times in three seasons from 1896-1898: 51, 46, and 46. In fact, as list 253 Most Hit By Pitch in a Season indicates, those are three of the top four single-season tallies of all time (Ron Hunt's 50 in 1971 comes in at second place all-time).

List 079 "Most Career Batter Walks" shows that Barry Bonds is just padding his all-time lead in this category at this point. He had 2,426 before the 2007 season started, and has 52 already this year. Second place is Rickey Henderson with 2,190 and third place is Babe Ruth with 2,062. We all thought it impressive when he broke the record for walks in a season in 2001 with 177, and then again in 2002 with 198. But in 2004 he shattered those marks with 232! Will Bonds play long enough and keep get free passes long enough to put his all-time record realistically out of reach... kinda like Henderson's career SB total seems to be, or Nolan Ryan's career strikeout record seems to be?

And speaking of out of reach career totals, list 083 "Most Career Batter Intentional Walks, since 1955" reiterates just how many of Bond's free passes truly are free. Going into 2007 he had 645, while Aaron is second (post-1955, which means only his rookie season is missing) with 293, and Willie McCovey is third with 260. Going into 2007 only 10 players were on this list with a career total of 200 IBBs or more. Like his string of record-breaking single-season walk totals, since intentional walks are a component of total walks, it should be no surprise he did the same thing a few years ago for IBB. The record (since 1955) had been Willie McCovey's 45 in 1969, but then Bonds got 68 in 2002, slipped a bit with "only" 61 in 2003, and then got an incredible 120 free passes in 2004! Will anyone reach Bonds' level in this category? I doubt it.

And then consider the very interesting list 270, Batters who Led the League in Hits and Walks in the Same Season. There are six such players, five in the NL and only one in the AL. Can you name them? Two are old-timers, from pre-1900. Ross Barnes in 1876 had 138 hits and 20 walks, both good enough to lead the NL, so that isn't very impressive really. Then in 1891 Billy Hamilton had 179 hits and 102 walks. The great Rogers Hornsby did it in 1924 with 227 hits and 89 walks. Richie Ashburn managed this feat in 1958 leading with 215 hits and 97 walks. Then Carl Yastrzemski is the lone player to ever do it in the AL, getting 183 hits and 95 walks in 1963. And lastly, Lenny Dykstra did it in 1993 with 194 hits and 129 walks. An interesting group of guys!

Baseball Lists, Part 3: RBI-Related Lists

Here is Part 3 in my series of baseball entries that note what I am finding interesting as I go through the newly released SABR book The SABR Baseball List & Record Book (available at Amazon). (Here is a link to Part 2 in this series.)

On pg. 28 is list 066 "Longest Gap between 100-RBI Seasons". Number one on the list is someone I might have guessed: Harold Baines. He had 105 in 1982, 113 in 1985, but then didn't top 100 again until 1999 when he 103 (while playing for two teams, the Orioles and the Indians). So that is a 14 year gap, during which time he had three seasons with 90+ RBIs.

Second on the list is Willie Horton, whom I would never have guessed, but it makes sense. A slugging OF for the Tigers for the first half of his career, he played mostly DH during the latter half. In 1965 he had 104 RBI, then in 1966 he had 100. From 1970-78 he only topped 140 games played once, but then in 1979 he played all 162 games as DH for the Mariners, and still swung a powerful bat, hitting .279, with 29 HR, and 106 RBI. So that is a 13 year gap.

And third on the list is Ken Keltner with a 10 year gap. He smashed 26 HR and 113 in his rookie season in 1938. Although a regular All-Star for the Indians, his power numbers didn't reach such heights again until 1948 when he hit 31 HR and had 119 RBIs. FYI - He missed 1945 due to the war.

List 067 is "Retired Players with Fewest Career RBI that Had a 100-RBI Season". Tops on this list is OF Ray Pepper who had 101 RBI in his full season in 1934 for the St. Louis Browns. Amazingly, he achieved this total while only hitting 7 homeruns. He only played two more partial seasons after that, and hence ended up with 170 career RBI.

A bunch of little-known old-timers from the 1920s to 1950s are next in this list, so I'll just mention some more recent names that caught my eye -- players that readers of this posting are more likely recognize. Slugger Phil Plantier had 100 RBI for the Padres in 1993 (along with 34 HR), but only had 293 for his entire career. Fernando Tatis has 107 RBI in 1999 for the Cardinals (also hitting 34 HR that season), but accumulated only 339 RBI for his career. Geronimo Berroa managed 106 RBI for the A's in 1996 to go with 36 HR that year. He also had 88 RBI in 1995 and 90 RBI in 1997, but ended up his career with 382 total. And Butch Hobson had 112 RBI for the 1977 Red Sox, his first full season when he also hit 30 HR. He had 80 RBI the next year, and 93 the year after that, but then retired in 1982 with only 397 RBI for his career.

It seems there are only three players who had two 100-RBI seasons but ended their careers with less than 400 total RBI. They are Smead Jolley (1930-33) with 313 RBI, Luke Easter (1949-54) with 340 RBI, and Del Bissonette (1928-1933) with 391 RBI.

List 069 is "Players with 500 RBI in Two Different Leagues". This is a fascinating one for sure. There are six such hitters. It was easy to guess the top three of them: Dave Winfield (1207 AL, 626 NL), Frank Robinson (744 AL, 1068 NL), and Fred McGriff (664 AL, 886 NL). Those are obvious. But the other three are much less so, in part because they had fewer career RBIs.

Lee May played from 1965-74 in the NL, with the Reds and Astros, accumulating 737 RBI. Then he was traded to the Orioles and played there for many years and finally ended up for two seasons in Kansas City, retiring in 1982. He managed to get 507 RBI during these years in the AL.

Next is Ellis Burks, who most remember as a promising and then productive OF for the Red Sox from 1987-92. He spent one year with the White Sox in 1993, and later returned to the AL with the Indians from 2001-2003, and even had 33 final at-bats for the Boston (though only 1 RBI) in 2004. That totals 655 AL RBIs. But from 1994-2000 he played for the Rockies and Giants in the NL, and managed 551 RBI in that league. Most importantly of course was his career year in 1996 hitting in the light Colorado air, when he smashed 40 HR, 128 RBI, and batted .344. He also scored 142 runs, had 45 doubles, and stole 32 basis -- all of which added up to placing third in the MVP balloting that year. For being a career .291 hitter with 352 HR, 181 SB, and 1,200+ Runs and RBIs, it is somewhat strange that he only made two all-star teams in his career.

And the last of the six to make this list is Reggie Smith. The first half of his career was as a Red Sox (1966-73), and there he had 536 RBI. Then he played for the Cardinals, Dodgers, and one final season in 1982 with the Giants. In the NL he had 556 RBI. To note how relative raw offensive numbers are in baseball, Smith had about the same number of career at-bats as Burks. But he played in a different era. While he had somewhat lower career totals -- 314 HR, 1,092 RBI, 1,123 Runs, 137 SB, and a .287 AVG -- he was an all-star seven times. Oh, and both Smith and Burks had one Gold Glove Award each, so its not as if Smith was a far superior defender compared with Burks. What was different was the eras, e.g., the league batting average for Burks was 12 points higher than for Smith over his career.

And lastly, for now, list 070 is "Most Career RBI without ever Leaning League". Who is tops on this list? Just Willie Mays! He had 1903 RBI, but never led the league. In fact, he only came in second twice and third three times. He scored more runs (2,062) than he drove in, leading the league twice and coming in the top three 11 times (including ever year from 1957-65).

Next on this list are Rafael Palmeiro (1835) which is not a surprise, and then Cal Ripken (1,695), Tony Perez (1,652), and Harold Baines (1,628) -- also all not surprises to me.

Of Firemen and Closers

Gabriel Schechter, a research associate at the National Baseball Hall of Fame, has done some interesting research recently on the changing nature of short relievers -- those who have been variously called "Firemen" and then more recently "Closers". His work was published in issue 35 of The Baseball Research Journal, with an article title of "All Saves Are Not Created Equal". I emailed Gabriel about it, and he said this article was based on two other shorter columns he wrote, which are available online at the HOF site. The first is The Evolution of the Closer, and the second is Top Relievers in Trouble.

One of the basic points he makes is something I have long known intuitively, but it is great to have the data he provides to back it up. The point is that the great "closers" of the 1970s and early 80s -- Fingers, Sutter, Gossage, even Quisenberry -- worked longer innings and more often came in the game in tough situations than the latest great closers such as Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera. Any serious baseball fan knows that the roles of the relief pitcher have changed greatly in the past several decades, with various distinct roles now being given names and uses by managers. The "closer" role is now almost always a one-inning-per-game affair. This wasn't the case for the likes of Fingers, Gossage, et al. For instance, Fingers had 135 saves in which he pitched 2 or more innings, Sutter 130, and Gossage 125. Compare that with Hoffman with 7 or Rivera with 11. And when you look at really long save appearances -- those that were 3 innings of work or greater, the difference is even more striking: Fingers 36, Gossage 24, Sutter 15, but Hoffman and Rivera 0 each.

Gabriel also does a good job of noting how Lee Smith can be seen as a transitional figure, as his career can be split into a part one (1981-90) in which his workload more closely resembled that of Fingers, Gossage, and Sutter, and a part two (1991-end) where his workload more closely resembled that of the contemporary closer.

Gabriel's analysis goes far deeper than just number of innings pitched to get the save, as he considers other factors for these hurlers such as how many runs-lead the team had when they were brought in, how many runners were on base, and how many outs there were. Gabriel notes "the difficulty of devising a unifying formula to evaluate all save performances in their situational context." But his work is getting us much closer to that goal. Well done!

Baseball List, Part 2

Here is Part 2 of my postings on what I find interesting and worthy of comment while browsing through the recent SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) book The SABR Baseball List and Record Book. For non-SABR members it is available at Amazon, currently at a nice 32% discount price of only $12.21.

See also Part 1, focused in part on the A's from the 1970s.

List 033 is "Highest Career Batting Average by a Switch-hitter (min. 1,500 hits)" (pg. 15). So how many switch-hitters have career BAs over .300? Just four it turns out. Frankie Frisch (.316), Chipper Jones (.304, through 2006), Pete Rose (.303), and Roberto Alomar (.300). Upon reflection, I guess I find it mildly surprising that there are so few, and that only Frisch is over .305. As a switch-hitter, they can't specialize on just RH or LH, but... they also can switch sides to get an advantage based on the pitcher being RH or LH. Of course the pool of candiates for this list is much smaller than for comparable lists for RH or LH batters, but still... I found this interesting.

Similarly, list 037 is "Highest Career On Base Percentage by a Switch-hitter (min. 5,000 PA)" (pg 16). So how many are over .400? Just three: Mickey Mantle (.421), Lu Blue (.402), and Chipper Jones (.402).

And then next is list 041 "Highest Career Slugging Average by a Switch-hitter (min. 5,000 PA)" (pg. 18). So how many are over .500? Just two, though they are well over that threshold: Mickey Mantle (.557) and Chipper Jones (.542).

Of course we all know how great Mantle was, but this raises the question of Chipper Jones and how we should consider his career -- and his HOF prospects. He has been a key part of a winning team, the Braves, so that surely helps. And he is still going strong at age 35. After some injuries the past few years, as of now he is batting .307 with 12 HR (tied for second in NL) in 2007 in only 153 ABs so far. Wow.

Take a look at Chipper's complete statistical resume. It is quite impressive: 369 HR, 1,223 RBI, 1,221 R, .305 BA, .402 OBP, .544 SLG. He took home the MVP in 1999, and has been an all-star five times. Actually, I hope he makes it this year too, as five times seems a bit low for him. More of a "gray-ink" hitter than a "black-ink" hitter, Chipper hasn't often led the NL in key offensive categories, but he has often been amongst the leaders. He had a little speed in his youth, and was a smart runner as in 1996 he had 14 SB vs. 1 CS and then in 1999 he had 25 SB vs. 3 CS. From 1996-2003 he had 100+ RBIs -- that is 8 consecutive seasons!

In his ample post-season experience he has had his good series and bad (like most Braves during his playing years). He has batted .288 with 13 HR in 333 post-season ABs.

If he can stay healthy and continue to be productive for several more years, he should easily get into the Hall of Fame. I guess I wouldn't quite vote for him yet, but it won't take much more. Consider Chipper's "Similar Batters through Age 34": Gary Sheffield, Duke Snider, Dick Allen, Billy Williams, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Bernie Williams, Mike Schmidt, Rafael Palmeiro, and Reggie Jackson. Pretty good company to be in (though not all HOFers).

Baseball List, Part 1

About a week ago I received in the mail a copy of the new SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) book The SABR Baseball List and Record Book. For non-SABR members it is available at Amazon, currently at a nice 32% discount price of only $12.21.

For someone like me, this book is loads of fun. It is nearly 400 pages of baseball leader lists of all kinds. Some are traditional, but many are things you'd have trouble finding anywhere else, not in the large print baseball encyclopedias or even online resources.

As I browse through its data-packed pages, I'm marking anything that jumps out at me as interesting or surprising. I plan to blog about these as time permits.

Today I will start with list 014, found on pg. 7, "More Career Games Played than Plate Appearances by Non-Pitchers, since 1900 (min. 100 G)", which is as follows:
Matt Alexander 1973-1981, Games = 374, PA = 195
Charles Gipson 1998-2005, Games = 373, PA = 358
Glen Barker 1999-2001, Games = 235, PA = 197
Jack Reed 1961-1963, Games = 222, PA = 144
Allan Lewis 1967-70, 72-73, Games = 156, PA = 31
Ross Moschitto 1965, 1967, Games = 110, PA = 39
Herb Washington 1974-1975, Games 105, PA = 0

Now, how does this happen one might ask? Well, two major ways as far as I can tell. If you are often put into a games a defensive replacement late in a game, and then either don't come to bat or are pinch-hit for when you do, then you'd be in the game without batting. The second way is if you are regularly used as a pinch-runner, and then don't take a position in the field in the next inning (and so can't bat at all the rest of that game).

I don't remember much about Gipson (OF with a .237 BA with 16 SB in career) or Barker (OF with a .232 BA and 30 SB) , and I can't tell just from their stats what their strengths were. With 17 SB in 81 games in 1999, I guess Glen Barker might have been a pinch-runner often?

Jack Reed was an OF for the Yankees, and hit .233 in his career, but only had 7 SB. Ross Moschitto was also a Yankee OF, but hit only .167 in his 36 career at-bats (with 0 SB). So I don't know from these numbers what their story was.

But the other three players, Alexander, Lewis, and Washington, were definitely pinch-runner players for the great Oakland A's experiment of the 1970s. Starting with Lewis, we see that he had 14 SB in 1967 for the KC A's, playing in 34 games but only having 7 official ABs. He had 8 SB in 1968, 7 in 1970, 8 in 1972, and then 7 more in his last season. His last season was the most extreme along these lines: 35 games, 0 at-bats, 16 runs, 7 SB. For his career, that's 44 SB (with 17 CS) in 156 games, with only 31 plate-appearances (29 at-bats). Oh, and of those 156 games he played, he was only used in the field 10 times (all OF).

The A's carried one or two "designated" pinch-runners on their rosters for much of the 1970s. Herb Washington was perhaps the most extreme of these, at least in my mind: in fact, he is the one player on this listing that I might have been able to guess. 1974 was his big year, as he played in 92 games, but none in the field. He had 0 plate appearances, but managed 29 runs scored, 29 SB, and 16 CS. Then in 1975 he got into only 13 games, scored 4 runs, with 2 SB, 1 CS. So that is how he played 105 games and never batted.

In 1975 Don Hopkins took over for Washington as the primary pinch-runner. He played in 82 games, had only 6 ABs, but scored 25 runs, with 21 SB and 9 CS. Like Washington, he then played very little the next year.

Another pinch-runner during these years was Matt Alexander, the last guy from the list above. He obviously had a longer career than Washington or Hopkins, playing 374 games, with 1995 PA, 168 ABs (a .214 hitter), scoring 111 runs, with 103 SB and 42 CS. He did play various positions in the field, including OF 93, 3B 22, SS 13, and 2B 10.

Another player worth noting in this regard is Larry Lintz. After a few seasons in Montreal (including 1974 when he had 50 SB in only 113 games!), and then a brief stint in St. Louis, this middle-infielder joined the A's in 1976 and became a pinch-runner for them. He played in 68 games, but had only 1 AB. He scored 21 runs, with 31 SB and 11 CS.

In doing this research, I uncovered a few other interesting tidbits. First, the 1976 A's were a running team! They didn't hit many HR (113), with Bando smacking 27 and Tenace 22. But they stole an amazing 341 bases and were caught 123 times. Regular team-leader Billy North swiped 75, and Bert Campaneris had 54. Don Baylor managed 52, by far the most of his career (though he did swipe 20+ in eight consecutive seasons, something I had forgotten). Claudell Washington had 37, and Phil Garner 35. All that running must have been contagious, because even Sal Bando chipped in with 20 SB, one of only two seasons in which he managed double-digit steals. It was almost overkill then that pinch-runners Alexander had 20 and Lintz had 31.

So were those 341 SB a record? No. For this I was able to turn to page 338 of this book (see what a great book it is!), where we learn that since 1898, the top SB total was the Baltimore Orioles... of the National League. Yes, the Orioles of 1899 were of the NL. They had 364 SB led by Jimmy Sheckard with 77 and the immortal John McGraw with 73. Well, that was a long time ago, so moving down the list to second place we find the NY Giants of the NL with 347 in 1911. They were led by Josh Devore with 61 and Fred Snodgrass (gotta love that name) with 51. But then in third place is in fact the 1976 A's with their 341 SB. In fact, the only non-ancient team to come close was the 1985 Cardinals who stole 312 bases, led of course by Vince Coleman with his amazing 110 SB in his rookie campaign. Willie McGee had 56, Andy Van Slyke34, and Ozzie Smith and Tommy Herr had 31 each.

The other tidbit I noticed in doing this analysis of the A's in the 1970s... was Mitchell Page's rookie numbers. He came in second for the AL ROY that year, losing to Eddie Murray. Mitchell batted .307 with 21 HR and 75 RBI. But he also stole 42 bases, versus only 5 CS -- quite a good percentage! The next season he wasn't as fortunate, stealing 23 versus 19 CS, and then in 1979 he slipped further with 17 SB and 16 CS -- not good success rates at all!

Anyway, future entries on lists from this interesting book will not be as long as this one was, but I just found the Herb Washington entry in that list fascinating and deserving of some comment.

Everyone Talks Baseball

Most everyone talks in baseball-speak -- well, at least most people in the US where baseball is such an important part of our culture. I assume that only some of the dozens of common terms and phrases in American English that are derived from baseball are also commonplace in other English-speaking countries. That would make for an interesting survey actually -- list 50 or so baseball-derived phrases that are commonly used in America, and see how many are widely known and used in England, Ireland, or Australia, and then how many (presumably fewer) where English is spoken often, but is a second or third language. Anyone know of such a survey or even just anecdotal results on this?

The Washington Post recently had a nice item that shows just how common baseball-speak is American English. Here is the writing sample that makes the point:

Say you are about to take a big math test in school. The teacher could play hardball. Right off the bat, she might throw the class a curveball and ask a question that is out of left field. Even if you are caught off base, you have to step up to the plate and answer the question the best you can. Of course, the teacher might give you a softball question that you can knock out of the park.

But this is no bush league test, so you might want to cover your bases by studying the night before. Touch base with your friends in class to make sure you are studying the right problems. If they are real friends, they will go to bat for you and help you study.

Or maybe your teacher is a real screwball who will give you a rain check and let you take the test another day. More time to study would make it a whole new ball game.

If you do well on this math test, you might move up to algebra or even calculus. That's big league math. But whatever you do, play ball with your teacher. You don't want to drop the ball and flunk the test.

You get the idea. Baseball words and phrases pop up all the time. Even folks who aren't fans might be talking baseball.

There are laws in this country that say if you commit serious crimes three times, you might go to prison for a long time. The three-strikes laws come from the baseball rulebook: Three strikes and you're out.

Believe me, there must be hundreds of baseball phrases. Of course, that's just a ballpark figure.

Can you find all the baseball-related phrases in that passage? There are 21 of them.

And to really get into baseball jargon -- much of which is not used outside of the context of baseball discussions of course -- see the lengthy list of terms at this Wikipedia entry.

Of Bad Teams and Good Defense

Local sportswriter Bob Matthews has an interesting column today wherein he first ponders whether the 2007 Washington Nationals might end up being one of the worst baseball teams ever. They are currently 3-9, which is certainly a bad start. If they continue at that .250 pace, then yes, they would be one of the worst teams ever. He notes they don't have much in the way of talent, and I agree that 1B Nick Johnson (currently injured), 3B Ryan Zimmerman, and closer Chad Cordero the only three really interesting guys on the team at this point (the only three, at this time, that wouldn't be an embarassment as their rep for the all-star game).

Bob describes three other historically bad teams: 1904 Washington Senators 38-113 (.235) [he referred to them as "Nationals" rather than Senators], 1916 Philadelphia Athletics (36-117, .235), and the 1962 New York Mets (40-120, .250). It would be tough to argue that there have been worse teams than these, at least in the modern (1901- era). Of course, the 1899 Cleveland Spiders take the all-time prize, as they posted a 20-134 (.130) record. Their top two pitchers posted records of 4-30 and 4-22, respectively. Ouch.

On a more positive subject, the next part of his column gives his take on the Rawlings 50th Anniversary Gold Glove Team. This is a fan vote to select the best fielder as each of the nine positions. He notes that the fans so far are doing a pretty good job too. He agrees with the fans on Keith Hernandez at 1B, Ozzie Smith at SS, Brooks Robinson at 3B, and Willie Mays, Roberto Clemente, and Ken Griffey Jr. in the OF. At 2B I think Bob rightly prefers Bill Mazeroski defensively over Joe Morgan, the current top vote-getter. He likes Ivan Rodriguez over Johnny Bench at Catcher -- something I consider a tough call for sure! And he likes Bob Gibson over Greg Maddux at Pitcher.

I was interested to see how the guys on the ballot stack up in Gold Glove awards, and fortunately you can see a handy list of mutliple GG winners at Baseball-Reference.com (scroll down). At 1B George Scott has 8 gold gloves, but isn't on the ballot in favor of Vic Power (7), Bill White (7), Wes Parker (6), and J.T. Snow (6). All good fielders to be sure, but Scott seems to have gotten a snub here. At 2B the six on the ballot are all and only the guys who have 5 or more gold gloves at the position. At 3B it is nearly the same, with Ken Boyer (5) being on the ballot over Robin Ventura (6), and Doug Rader and Ron Santo also having 5 apiece. At SS the top 5 trophy winnters are on the ballot. Derek Jeter (3) is included over Tony Fernandez (4) and Alan Trammell (4), but he is still going strong and could easily get a few more GGs before he is done.

The cutoff for OF seems to be 6 gold gloves, as everyone who has 6+ is on the ballot with two exceptions. Barry Bonds has 8, and his absence is rather odd to me (perhaps Rawlings didn't want to include him because of the negativity swirling around Barry these days?). The other omission is more understandable, as Dwayne Murphy had 6 but two others who have 6 are still active (Ichiro, Torii Hunter), and the other Kirby Puckett had his career shortened by injury.

For Catchers, the top five winners are the five on the ballot, so I have no dispute there. And ditto for Pitchers, as the three on the ballot (Greg Maddux, Jim Kaat, and Bob Gibson) are the top three award winners as well.

Baseball Movies

The USA Weekend insert for the weekend of March 23-25 had a one-page piece "Best Baseball Movies Ever: Our Exclusive Panel Takes Its Turn At Bat". With the baseball season underway this past week, I thought I'd chime in on this fun topic as well.

The usual suspects are rated highly by this panel of course: Bull Durham, Major League, The Natural, Field of Dreams, Bad News Bears, and Pride of the Yankees amongst others. I definitely liked all of those, to be sure. But a few others that are rarely mentioned in such discussions deserve attention.

I have always liked Angels in the Outfield, not the 1994 or 2000 remakes mind you, but the original 1951 film that starred Paul Douglas and Janet Leigh. If you've never seen this one, then add it to your Netflix or Blockbuster queue and enjoy its charming story!

Another less-well known baseball movie is A Winner Never Quits (1986). This is a fact-based story of a young boy who lost his right arm in a childhood accident, but went on to fulfill his dreams of playing major-league baseball.

Although it often gets included in lists of great baseball movies, sometimes Eight Men Out is forgotten. This is easily one of my favorites, and is one of those movies that I have a hard time turning off the TV if I happen upon it (like another baseball film, The Natural, or a few films in other genres, such as The Princess Bride).

And I recently watched The Sandlot (1993) for the first time, and enjoyed it. This one is good for both kids and adults.

In Googling "best baseball movies", I discovered this great site: www.baseballmovies.com. Great info there, including the creator's own list of the top-25 baseball movies ever -- and I was delighted to see The Natural top the list. Another list is this one from epinions, posted in 2004. Also see this list of top 20 from ESPN's Page 2. To dig even deeper, I was amazed at this list of 20+ older films (1930-1969). And then there is also this annotated list of 100 baseball and baseball-related movies!

I plan to start a project to watch all the baseball movies I can over time... should be fun. If you know of any other good lists of them, please let me know.

As of now, my ranking of favorite baseball films (not including documentaries, like the Burns Baseball series), would be:

1. The Natural
2. Field of Dreams
3. Eight Men Out
4. Angels in the Outfield (1951 version)
5. A League of their Own
6. Pride of the Yankees
7. Bull Durham
8. Major League
9. The Sandlot
10. 61

The last few spots are tough ones, so I could easily change my mind in the future. There is the Babe Ruth Story, Cobb, Bad News Bears, A Winner Never Quits, and many others that are in contention for this top-10 listing.

The Debut of Dice-K

One of the more anticipated events of the first week of the MLB season was the debut of 26-year old starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka (pronounced "Dice-K"), the best player to come from Japan since Ichiro. He pitches with power, and also has a repertoire of pitches that includes a "gyro ball", which I understand to just be a failed slider -- that is, a ball that looks like it will be a slider, but then doesn't end up moving the way a slider would.

Perhaps no other player has been as hyped during the pre-season as Dice-K has, in part because he plays for a big market team, the Boston Red Sox, and in part because he really does have a lot of talent. And this was evident in his debut game in Kansas City (see boxscore), where he pitched seven strong innings, allowing six hits and one earned run, walking only one batter and striking-out an impressive ten. I saw clips of this performance on SportsCenter, and he really looks impressive. Granted it was against the poor-hitting Royals, but still...

His next game will be another fascinating spectacle, as it will be his home debut in Boston, and since it is against the Mariners, the first batter he will face will be... Ichiro. I have no particular interest in seeing him succeed, as I'm not a Red Sox fan, nor do I have him on either of my two fantasy teams, but I'm glad to see him start out well, and hope he'll be an interesting story to follow throughout the season.

Baseball Season Begins, Roto Draft

I just watched the season opener, Cardinals vs. Mets. It is great to see the season get underway!

For those who are interested in Fantasy/Roto Baseball... Yesterday I participated in the draft for one of the two fantasy baseball leagues I'm in. This one is a traditional Roto league, with 11 teams, 5x5 categories (BA, OBP, HR, RBI, SB, W, S, K, ERA, WHIP), 23-man roster, with $260 salary cap.

Last year I came in last place in this league. I made several mistakes during the draft, including spending way too much for relief pitching. So this year I had a very different strategy in mind. I wanted to spend much more on hitting than pitching, and make sure to get some definite stud hitters. I read about the so-called "LIMA" strategy (Low Investment Mound Aces). I didn't actually follow this plan explicitly, but I did adopt its $60 budget for pitching.

I had some strong keepers from last year, as we are allowed to keep up to seven players at last year's salary +5. This means that if you can get a guy for $1 and he turns into an all-star, you can keep him for many more years, though not indefinitely -- typically when players get up over $30 they are no longer kept, though it has happened.

So here is my roster (keepers from last year marked with **)

$5 C Mike Piazza
$8 C Ronny Paulino
$2 1B Connor Jackson
$8 2B Ian Kinsler **
$25 3B Miguel Cabrera **
$17 SS Michael Young **
$6 3B Ryan Zimmerman **
$3 SS Khalil Greene
$27 OF Lance Berkman ** (also 1B eligible)
$33 OF Carlos Beltran
$33 OF Carl Crawford
$16 OF Adam Dunn
$13 OF Rocco Baldelli
$1 OF Chris Duncan
$27 SP Jake Peavy
$7 SP Ervin Santana **
$6 SP Dave Bush
$3 SP Javier Vazquez
$3 SP Adam Wainright
$1 SP Mark Prior
$1 SP Pedro Martinez
$9 RP JJ Putz
$1 RP Jason Isringhausen

Obviously my keepers were hitting-centric, so that lended it self well to my draft strategy. I went for Beltran and Crawford early on, giving me 4 legitimate stud hitters (along with Berkman and Cabrera). Then I added Dunn, who might hurt me in BA should provide 40+ HR. Then Zimmerman is arguably my best value hitter, and I have high hopes for production this year from Piazza (DH at-bats as a catcher), Baldelli, and Greene. And I hope Jackson, Duncan, Paulino and Kinsler will continue to progress as young players.

My pitching staff is not strong of course, but I am hopeful they can out-perform the money spent on them. Peavy is the only stud here, with vet Vazquez, and youngsters Bush, and Santana being pretty safe bets. Wainright is now a starter, and I think will be impressive this year. Obviously Prior was a flyer, and his starting the season in the minors is a bad sign. Pedro is on the DL for months, but this means I get two pickups from available players for him and Prior after the first week of the season. Only two closers won't be enough to compete in Saves, so I'll likely need to get a third source there -- and that is assuming Izzy stays healthy.

I only made a couple of mistakes I think. Spending $27 for Peavy is more than I would have liked, and it kept me from bidding on some quality players later in the draft. And of course $8 looks high for Paulino, but at that point in the draft there were really no other good catchers left, and I had some excess money to toss around, so when I got into a bidding war with one other team for Paulino, I went the distance.

As for my other Fantasy League... there I did quite well last year. It is a H2H league, points based, and allows up to 8 keepers from year to year. Not salary-based, must have 3 SP and 3 RP in lineup each day, and you are allowed any type of reserves you want (max of 8 SP on roster). Here is my roster:

C Mike Piazza
C Michael Barrett
1B Ryan Howard **
1B/3B/OF Aubrey Huff
2B Marcus Giles
2B Jorge Cantu
3B Aramis Ramirez **
SS Jimmy Rollins **
OF Bobby Abreu **
OF Vladimir Guerrero **
OF Alex Rios
DH Travis Hafner **
SP Matt Cain
SP Cole Hamels **
SP Jared Weaver
SP Dan Haren
SP Kelvim Escobar
SP Javier Vazquez
SP Anibal Sanchez
SP Anthony Reyes
SP Brandon McCarthy (also RP eligible)
RP Mariano Rivera
RP Bobby Jenks

Obviously this team is also loaded with hitting. My keepers were extremely good: Howard, Vlad, Hafner, Rollins, A. Ramirez, and Abreu. Then I added two good hitting catchers, breakout-candidate Rios, the position-versatile Huff, and two bounce-back candidates at 2B.

The pitching is youth-oriented other than Vazquez and Escobar. I am hoping that at least half of the young hurlers will continue to develop, with only a few of them being flops. McCarthy was a strategic pick, because he counts as one of my three relievers. Once I can determine which SPs are not working out, I'll drop one or two, and pick up a legitimate (surprise) closer -- there are always a few that are impossible to predict at the season's beginning. Rivera and Jenks should be solid as the other two RPs.

So we'll see what happens!

Thoughts on Bill James Handbook 2007

I've been meaning to write a few of my thoughts about some information provided in The Bill James Handbook 2007. Most of its pages are filled with tables of player statistics, most of which can be found elsewhere (including for free online), but there are also many interesting short essays. This is of course a very enjoyable book for any serious baseball fan, especially those of us who are in fantasy or roto leagues. Highly recommended!

But before the 2007 season gets underway, and some of these comments become outdated, here they are.

Barry Bonds the Run Scorer. I hadn't realized until reviewing the active career batting leaders listings that Barry Bonds has scored about 200+ more runs than he has batted in: 2,152 Runs vs. 1,930 RBI. Not surprising after a moment's thought, given his insanely high walk rate and OBP.

What is the deal with Jeff Nelson? He has pitched since 1992, mostly for the Mariners and the Yankees. I was surprised to see him ranked 8th in Opponents BA amongst active pitchers with 750+ IP. He has held hitters to a .224 average over his career! Even better, he ranks 4th in Opponents SLG (.331), and 6th in Opponents Hits per 9 IP with a 7.26 mark, 3rd in HR Allowed per 9 IP with a 0.63 mark, and 5th in K per 9 IP with a 9.51 mark. In all of these cases he rates higher than Roger Clemens! Granted, Roger has logged far more innings. But my point is to ask why Jeff Nelson has never landed a job as either a top starting pitcher or a closer? He seems to have great raw numbers, also including a 3.41 career ERA compared with 4.55 league average ERA, and 829 K in 784 IP. And yet he's never started a single game in the majors, and has never had more than 8 saves in a season. As a result of toiling as a middle-reliever and setup man he has only been an all-star once, even though his numbers seem quite impressive. He has even posted a 2.65 ERA in 54 postseason IP.

UPDATE on 4/2/2007: My friend John Erhardt has provided me the following comments on this: "Re: Jeff Nelson -- he was pretty terrible against lefties. He was basically a two-pitch pitcher (fastball, and the most ridiculous slider I've ever seen), and that was it. That was all he'd need when facing a righty. His slider would break down and in to a lefty, which is their wheelhouse. His impressive numbers have come largely because of a very carefully defined role. Even his great years with the Yankees were handled carefully: Nelson would face the righties, Mike Stanton would face the lefties. So aside from the usual problems that plague relievers (stamina, funky delivery), his arsenal wasn't really set up to be a starter. No changeup to speak of, and no really good pitch to throw to lefties."

Career Assessments. This section is extremely interesting. Here a particular method from Bill James that uses performance, age, etc. to give a probability that a player will reach a particular career milestone. So for example we see that Barry Bonds has a 97% chance of getting 756 HR. A-Rod has a 31% chance, and Pujols 22%. The 600 HR club is likely to grow in the coming years, and not just because Griffey Jr. already has 563 (and so has a 96% chance of reaching the milestone). A-Rod is given a 90% chance, Manny Ramirez 72%, and the still-only-29-years-old Andruw Jones a 57% chance. Plus Pujols of course with a 55% chance -- though given his consistency, I'd have thought it even a better shot than that.

No active player has a real shot at breaking Pete Rose's all-time hits record, and only Derek Jeter and Miguel Cabrera have even a 5% chance of reaching 4,000 hits. The 3,000 hit plateau is of course more reasonable, so here we find Jeter with a 71% chance, A-Rod 63%, and Vlad Guerrero 44%. A bit surprisingly, Edgar Renteria is given a 34% chance: since he turns 32 in August and has only 1,770 hits thus far -- and has never topped 200 in a season -- I would have thought he'd have less of a chance.

And as for pitching, as I wrote in a previous blog posting, the 300 Win club is not likely to see very many more members. Tom Glavine has 290 wins and so has 74% chance (why so low?), and Randy Johnson has 280 wins and so has a 70% chance. I guess their age (Glavine 40 and Johnson 42) leads the odds-making system to consider career-ending injury to be a high-risk at this point. But after these two the odds drop significantly, as Mike Mussina is next with 239 wins at age 37 leading to only an 18% chance of reaching 300. Young Johan Santana is off to a good start, with 78 wins at age 27, but his long way to go means he only has a 16% chance at 300.

And lastly, tables for Projected Career Totals for Active Players (batters only) provide a glimpse of what some young stars might end up with as career numbers -- if they stay completely healthy and play a full career. This is interesting in trying to read from current numbers whether these players have real HOF potential or not. Here is a sample, including many of the younger players, for whom such predictions are hence that much more speculative... see the book for many more:

• Carlos Beltran 475 HR, 2672 H, 385 SB
• Lance Berkman 511 HR, .295 BA
• Johnny Damon 2922 H, 242 HR, 401 SB
• Carlos Delgado 583 HR, 1862 RBI
• Adam Dunn 618 HR, .234 BA, 3,109 SO (yikes!)
• Jason Giambi 500 HR
• Troy Glaus 539 HR, .245 BA
• Vlad Guerrero 633 HR, 636 D, 3468 H, 2055 RBI, .318 BA, 265 SB
• Derek Jeter 3,604 H, 298 HR, 2089 R, 374 SB, .308 BA
• Andruw Jones 677 HR, 2009 RBI
• Paul Konerko 471 HR
• Carlos Lee 433 HR
• Derek Lee 421 HR
• David Ortiz 547 HR, 1726 RBI
• Albert Pujols 867 HR, 867 D, 3752 H, 2448 R, 2559 RBI, .323 BA (WOW!)
• Aramis Ramirez 531 HR, 1758 RBI
• Manny Ramirez 691 HR, 3041 H, 2228 RBI, .305 BA
• Alex Rodriguez 772 HR, 3429 H, 2234 R, 2273 RBI, 335 SB
• Alfonso Soriano 428 HR, 363 SB
• Mark Teixeira 558 HR, 1802 RBI
• Miguel Tejada 461 HR, 3249 H, 1900 RBI
• Vernon Wells 418 HR

Ryan Howard is said to be on his way to 711 HR, but I think it is far too early in his career to include him in this table. On the other hand, Carl Crawford and Miguel Cabrera were oddly absent from the table, and I would be interested to see the results from applying this method to their careers thus far.

Waiting for the Smell in the Air

I don't usually write "personal" blog postings... but this one verges on that I guess. I recently saw my first spring training baseball game on TV, and of course that was a great feeling. Then a few days ago the temperatures here in the Rochester, New York area rose into the 50s and even low 60s I think. I was able to go for an outdoor jog (just 3.5 miles) on one of those days, which was great, because I really need the exercise. And we actually had ample rain in recent days too.

But then last night winter weather returned, and this morning we have a good 5+ inches of fluffy snow and the temps are again well below freezing. So my spring joy is being delayed.

In particular, I am still waiting for that "ah, its wonderful" emotional moment (or series of moments) that I experience each spring. I grew up in this area, and I very much appreciate its change of seasons each year. Every spring as a child and adolescent I played baseball on a team (little league through varsity high-school) -- I was mostly a pitcher. Practices would start in early March (or even late February, albeit indoors). There was a certain smell in the air that I'd experience every year at that time. It was a combination of many things: the smell of spring rains, warmer air temperature, the smell of the dirt of the ballfield, the smell of the leather of baseball glove, the smell of fresh-cut (or at least revived and growing) green grass, and even the faint scents from flowers blooming or the leaves first coming out.

For me, it is what I get from my sense of smell during this time -- even more than the sense of touch of the warmer temperatures, or the sense of sight of the sun and grass -- that most triggers positive emotions of the season. And for me, it is very much tied up with baseball, and not just the weather as such. To a lesser extent I have a similar reaction, at some point in September, as the fall season starts to settle in: thoughts of something new (based on school starting for so many years), the start of the football season (I didn't play on a team, but we played lots of pickup games and of course I watched lots of pro and college football on TV as a kid). But given that the weather then is turning colder, not warmer, and that the changes in vegetation signal death (or at best hibernation) rather than renewed life, it just isn't the same for me as the birth of the spring season is. Plus as a kid baseball starting was far more important to me than football season or school starting!

Alas, those moments will be delayed a while longer this year... as I stare out my window at the falling snow.

H2H Fantasy Draft Complete

I'm in two fantasy baseball leagues. One is a traditional Roto 5x5 league, and it has a live draft later this month. The other is a H2H points-based league, and we just concluded our online draft yesterday. In this 10-team league we have 23-man rosters, field a starting lineup plus one utility (any position) player each day, and start six pitchers -- 3 starters, and 3 relievers. You can have any combination of reserves you like, but you cannot have more than 8 starting pitchers on your roster (since you can rotate them in and out of your lineup on a daily basis as they pitch in reality). Also, we have 10 waive moves, mostly used for injury replacements as needed -- since we have no DL.

We are allowed a robust 8 keepers, so there is definitely continuity from year to year. I had one of the best teams least year, so my 8 keepers for 2007 are very strong:
1B Ryan Howard
3B Aramis Ramirez
SS Jimmy Rollins
OF Vladimir Guerrero
OF Travis Hafner (DHs count as OF)
OF Bobby Abreu
SP Cole Hamels
RP Mariano Rivera

I know that Hamels was a risky bet there, but I have confidence in the youngster. Clearly my offense is very strong here -- I just lack starters at C, 2B, and the Utility spot. What I needed most in the 15-player draft then was 1-2 more solid closers, and lots of starting pitchers. So here is how I drafted, in order:
SP Jered Weaver
SP Matt Cain
SP Dan Haren
RP Bobby Jenks
OF Alex Rios
C Mike Piazza
SP Javier Vazquez
1B/3B/OF Aubrey Huff
SP Anibal Sanchez
C Michael Barrett
SP/RP Brandon McCarthy
2B Marcus Giles
2B Jorge Cantu
SP Anthony Reyes
SP Kelvim Escobar

I actually would have chosen a non-SP with my first choice if given the chance, as amazingly catcher Victor Martinez was available! He would have easily been my top choice, but because I did well last year, I picked 8th out of 10 teams and he was gone by the time my turn rolled around. My top choice from the available SPs was taken as well (Jeremy Bonderman), so I went with the young phenom Jered Weaver. As you can see, my staff is loaded with high-risk, great potential youngsters: Hamels, Weaver, Cain, Sanchez, McCarthy, and Reyes. None of them are rookies, but most are still quite raw, 2nd-season guys. Some will no doubt struggle, but I am hoping that perhaps 3 out of these 6 will show strong growth, or even breakout in 2007. My veterans are Haren, Vazquez, and Escobar -- with Haren having the most upside potential, and the other two being fairly low risk in my opinion.

I'm not a big fan of Jenks, but he was the best RP available at the time. McCarthy was an important pickup for me strategically, as he is eligible in our league at both RP and SP. If he bombs in Texas, I can dump him for a surprise saves-accumulator. That is the thing about relief pitchers, beyond the top 10-15, it is really hard to predict who will get saves in any given season. There are always surprises. I've learned the hard way that in fantasy/roto leagues, you shouldn't overpay for saves, because you can always pick some up cheap during the season once bullpen roles get established. If McCarthy works out well but one of the other SPs I have gets hurt or under-performs, then that guy will get dropped for a true reliever who is grabbing saves -- say in early May for instance.

I plan to use Alex Rios as my primary Utility slot player, though any of my reserves could play there as needed. Mike Piazza was a strategic pickup, because he'll be eligible as an OF reserve after a while as he should be mostly DH-ing this year for Oakland. So assuming he is hitting well, I'll play him at C, OF, and U. And I was surprised that Barrett was still available that late -- a solid second catcher for sure!

Aubrey Huff was a strategic pickup, since he is eligible in this league at 1B, 3B, OF, and of course Utility. With a short bench and no DL, have guys that are multi-position eligible is really helpful. If he can hit 25 HR with 90 RBIs, I'll be happy.

Obviously I left 2B until near the end. My view was that after Chase Utley there is a big drop-off. The guys ranked 2-15 at 2B are not that different from each other. Sure Cano, Weeks, and a few others are better than the bottom guys, but not that much better -- and not at all if the lower guys play to their potential and have career years. So given my other needs, I decided early on I'd chance it and grab two 2B late in the draft -- two guys that I hope can rebound from poor 2006 seasons. Giles and Cantu fit that perfectly, so I grabbed them. I just need one of them to perform well, as the other will just be used on off days and will likely get dropped when injury situations arise. Surely either Giles or Cantu will come through for me, right?

The Death of 20-Win Seasons?

Each February I visit a local grocery or book store, look over the baseball preview magazines, and pick out two or three to buy. Since 1980 (at the age of seven) I have always gotten the classic Street and Smith's Baseball Annual. The one or two others that I pick up, which vary from year to year, are usually entirely fantasy/roto baseball focused, to help prepare me for my upcoming drafts.

S&S still provides great team summaries (leaving aside the problem that they, like most magazines in February, are not up to date with the most recent off-season moves). Their advice for fantasy and roto leagues, now 14 pages in length, includes some strange opinions sometimes, with their rankings probably not being the most reliable (or even close to it).

But this year's issue had an odd two-page article called "Death of the 20-game Winner?" (sorry, not available online). Author Scot Gregor begins by noting that last year, for the first time in baseball history (excluding the strike-shortened seasons of 1981, 1994, and 1995), there were no pitchers who won 20 games or more. Long ago 20+ wins was not that impressive -- Cy Young did it a record 16 times, and both Christy Mathewson and Warren Spahn did it 13 times each. And as recent as 1971 the Orioles managed four starters with 20+ wins on the same team!

But last year the AL's best were Johan Santana and Chien-Ming Wang with 19 wins each, and in the NL six players tied for the lead... with only 16 wins each! So that is what prompted Mr. Gregor to ask his title question.

Many reasons for the decline in win totals are given: luck is needed, good health is needed, consistent run-support is needed, durability to go deep in games is needed. And since the 1970s two relevant, major changes have occurred. First, four-man rotations turned into five-man rotations, so starters are starting less games per season. And of course the nature and use of bullpens has changed in the past several decades, with not only closers being a specialist position, but more and more pitchers being groomed (and paid handsomely) to be lefty or righty setup men. Add to that the high salaries that premium starters get, and there is a natural desire to not wear them out with too many innings of work - get them out of there, and let someone fresh come in and finish the game (or a few such specialists). Winning the game is what matters, and winning a lot of games is what really matters -- so we need our best starters to be injury-free for the whole season. That is no doubt the thinking of many managers and pitching coaches these days, and if it means starting pitchers don't rack up as many W's, so be it.

The article mentions "offensive firepower" being dominant since the late 1990s, but I don't see that as being a factor in this question. But leaving that aside, the reasons listed above would lead one to assume that 20+ Win season should be becoming more and more rare. But vanish entirely? That was the article's headline, and I found that a bizarre speculation -- at least at this time. Yes, 2006 was a first. But to defend the thesis raised in the article's title question, one needs to consider trends -- not just list all the reasons as above, but actually look at number trends (since we are talking about a number afterall, namely 20). The article didn't even begin to do that, so I thought it would be a fun project for me to tackle.

It just so happens that this little 2-hour project afforded me the chance to do two other things I've been meaning to get around to. First, I download the latest version (5.4) of the Lahman baseball statistics database, available in various formats from baseball1.com. And to create nice charts of the data, I was able to use my newly purchased Excel 2007, from the Office 2007 Pro Suite I upgraded to recently. So what I did was create several SQL queries in Access to pull together the data that would show the count of various metrics for the years being considered. I decided to start with 1970, which is 37 years ago and I figure enough data to sensibly consider trends on this question.

So below are links for the four charts I've created. In each chart, you'll notice that I've added vertical blue lines for the three years where two teams were added to MLB: 1977, 1993, 1998. I did this because this meant there were more players, including more pitchers, and since these are raw numbers and counts, that could mean more pitchers reaching the totals tracked (in the first two charts). While expansion teams aren't likely to have great starting pitchers during their first few years, after a while, there are just more people in this role, and more total wins to be had in MLB, so I would think there could be more people getting the totals under consideration. (Think about it this way -- if there were 1,000 teams in MLB, rather than 30, you'd expect more 20+ winners each year, right?)

Also, the data omits 1981, 1994, and 1995, since as noted earlier these were strike-shortened seasons.

1. Count of 18+ and 20+ Winners since 1970 - Clearly there has been a decrease in the number of 20+ and 18+ game winners during this span. (I decided to track both because given the factors described earlier, including things completely outside the control of a pitcher, I figure there are a few games a year where the pitcher could have easily won if only some oddball factor had gone the other way.)
2. Count of 30+ and 35+ GS; 5+ CG since 1970 - Here we see quite clearly the effect of some of the factors described earlier. Complete Game totals have declined dramatically since the early 70s. Pitchers are being pulled for pitchcounts and in order to use specialists in the bullpen. The red line shows the impact that the shift from 4-man to 5-man rotations has had. Very few starters get 35 games started each year now. And Then the blue line show that many are still getting 30 games started, and I assume the slight increase here is due both to the 5-man rotation shift (spreading the games started amongst more guys) and also the influx of the six expansion teams during this era (more starting pitchers pitching).
3. Leader in IPouts (IP) since 1970 - This one shows the MLB leader in "IPOuts" -- if you divide by three, you'll get the more common statistic, Innings Pitched (IP). This number shows a dramatic drop off from the early 1970s through the mid-1980s, and since then has declined further, but only slightly. This reflects both the shift from 4-man to 5-man rotations (I think that makes up the dramatic early shift) and also the increasingly specialized nature of bullpens and the concern with pitchcounts (I think that makes up the continuing gradual decline).
4. Leader in W, GS, CG since 1970 - This one show the MLB leader in Wins, Games Started, adn Complete Games. Games Started has definitely declined during this span, again mostly because of the 4-man to 5-man rotation change I assume. Since 1988 the leader in GS each year has been pretty stable. The annual leader in Complete Games, on the other hand, keeps getting lower and lower. In the early 1970s the leader would usually get near 30 CG (!), today the best gets 6-10. This is the pitchcount and bullpen specialization effect in all its glory. And then we see Win leaders, which have also declined overall since 1970, though not all that dramatically. For instance, Bob Welch nabbed 27 victories in 1990, which equals the 27 Steve Carlton got in 1972. But overall, there has been a slight decline here -- but not so much, in my opinion, to warrant the alarmist notion the S&S article's headline raises.

In writing this blog entry I fought the urge to invoke Mark Twain as an opening. So instead I'll do so in closing. Death of the 20-game winner? Such reports, the numbers show, are exaggerated.

Lastly, on a related issue, see my blog posting last June: Tom Glavine: The Last to Win 300? As an update to that piece, Glavine is at 290 and Randy Johnson is at 280, so I'd now say Glavine is a near-lock, and Johnson has a good shot too. But beyond that, I still have to wonder if anyone will ever reach that milestone again (see that blog posting for others I considered).

HOF Veterans Committee

Local sports columnist Bob Matthews commented this past Sunday on the upcoming 2007 Veterans Committee baseball hall-of-fame vote, with election results to be announced on Feb. 27. He said that he'll be rooting for Gil Hodges, Ron Santo, and Joe Torre, but wouldn't be surprised if no one is chosen this year. He ranked the 27 players listed in the following order of preference: Joe Torre, Gil Hodges, Al Oliver, Ron Santo, Tony Oliva, Minnie Minoso, Jim Kaat, Dick Allen, Vada Pinson, Ken Boyer, Maury Wills, Carl Mays, Roger Maris, Bobby Bonds, Thurman Munson, Mickey Vernon, Rocky Colavito, Luis Tiant, Wes Ferrell, Joe Gordon, Curt Flood, Marty Marion, Cecil Travis, Lefty O'Doul, Don Newcombe, Sparky Lyle, Mickey Lolich.

So of course I thought it would be a fun exercise to look into these 27 players a bit more, and in particular, see how they fair using various metrics intended for rating players' careers, and especially with an eye towards their HOF-worthiness. So starting with the hitters first, lets set the stage with highlights of their common statistics:

• Joe Torre - 252 HR, 1185 RBI, .297 BA, .365 OBP, 9 AS, 1 GG, 1 MVP
• Gil Hodges - 370 HR, 1274 RBI, .273 BA, .359 OBP, 8 AS, 3 GG
• Al Oliver - 219 HR, 529 D, 1326 RBI, .303 BA, .344 OBP, 7 AS
• Ron Santo - 342 HR, 1331 RBI, .277 BA, .362 OBP, 9 AS, 5 GG
• Tony Oliva - 220 HR, 947 RBI, .304 BA, .353 OBP, 8 AS, 1 GG
• Minnie Minoso - 186 HR, 1023 RBI, 205 SB, .298 BA, .389 OBP, 7 AS, 3 GG
• Dick Allen - 351 HR, 1119 RBI, .292 BA, .378 OBP, .534 SLG, 7 AS, 1 MVP
• Vada Pinson - 256 HR, 1170 RBI, 485 D, 305 SB, .286 BA, .327 OBP, 2 AS
• Ken Boyer - 282 HR, 1141 RBI, .287 BA, .349 OBP, 7 AS, 5 GG, 1 MVP
• Maury Wills - 20 HR, 586 SB, .281 BA, .330 OBP, 5 AS, 2 GG, 1 MVP
• Roger Maris - 275 HR, 851 RBI, .260 BA, .345 OBP, 4 AS, 1 GG, 2 MVP
• Bobby Bonds - 332 HR, 1024 RBI, 461 SB, .268 BA, .353 OBP, 3 AS, 3 GG
• Thurmon Munson - 113 HR, 701 RBI, .292 BA, .346 OBP, 7 AS, 3 GG, 1 MVP
• Mickey Vernon - 172 HR, 1311 RBI, .286 BA, .359 OBP, 7 AS
• Rocky Colavito - 374 HR, 1159 RBI, .266 BA, .359 OBP, 6 AS
• Joe Gordon - 253 HR, 975 RBI, .268 BA, .357 OBP, 9 AS, 1 MVP
• Curt Flood - 85 HR, .293 BA, .342 OBP, 3 AS, 7 GG
• Marty Marion - 36 HR, .263 BA, .323 OBP, 8 AS, 1 MVP
• Cecil Travis - 27 HR, .314 BA, .370 OBP, 3 AS
• Lefty O'Doul - 113 HR, .349 BA, .413 OBP, 1 AS

Of course Joe Torre deserves to be elected as combined player and manager, no doubt about it. But for now, we are just looking at his playing record. And Gil Hodges was manager for the famous 1969 Mets, but the rest of his managing career was not particularly impressive (.467 lifetime record). The majority of these hitters had some power, with standouts being Allen and Maris. Many were career .300+ hitters, and a few had speed (e.g., Wills, Pinson, Minoso). And many were good defenders, most notably Flood, Marion, Boyer and Santo. And in terms of positions-played, Torre and Munson get a nod for being catchers, and Marion, Wills, Gordon, and Travis for being middle-infielders.

So how about the special metrics now? I'll start with Black Ink Scores (explanation). First, for context, the all-time leaders for hitters are Babe Ruth 161, Ty Cobb 150, and Ted Williams 126. So from the guys under consideration, these ones are in the top 200 all-time: Oliva 41 (35th all-time), Allen 25 (67th), Pinson 18, Maris 18, Wills 16, Oliver 16, Colavito 15, Vernon 14, and Torre 12. It is said that the average hall-of-famer gets a 27 on this metric, so that would mean Oliva looks attractive on this basis. However, there are many fine hall-0f-famers who are below this 27 mark of course (some of the biggest names, in order): Lou Brock, Ernie Banks, Paul Molitor, Al Simmons, Roberto Clemente, Johnny Bench, Cal Ripken (!), Eddie Collins, Willie Stargell, Eddie Mathews, Joe Morgan, Robin Yount, Al Kaline.

Moving on to Gray Ink Scores (explanation), the all-time hitting leaders are Ty Cobb 417, Hank Aaron 408, and Stan Musial 390 (Ruth comes in 7th with 344). As one would expect, our list of candidates does better by this metric, with these ones are in the top 200 all-time: Minoso 189 (47th), Allen 159 (74th), Colavito 152 (85th), Vernon 149 (87th), Santo 147 (90th), Oliva 146 (95th), Boyer 138, Pinson 135, Hodges 128, Oliver 127, Gordon 111. It is said that the average hall-of-famer gets a 144 on this metric, so that would mean that several of these guys look attractive here, with Allen leading the pack. However, there are many fine hall-0f-famers who are below this 144 mark of course (some of the biggest names, in order): Wade Boggs, Yogi Berra, Brooks Robinson, Joe Morgan, Willie McCovey, Robin Yount, Cal Ripken.

Moving on to HOF Career Standards (explanation), the all-time leaders are Babe Ruth 78 and then 4 guys tied currently with 75: Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Rogers Hornsby, and Barry Bonds. The list of candidates being considered does much worse on this metric, with these ones being in the top 200 all-time: Santo 40, Torre 40, Oliver 39, Allen 38, Pinson 35, Bonds 35, Boyer 35, Minoso 35. Since the average HOF on this metric scores a 50, none of these guys would be considered above average. However, there are many fine hall-0f-famers who are below this 50 mark of course (some of the biggest names, in order): Duke Snider, Ernie Banks, Johnny Bench, Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey, Willie Stargell, Lou Brock.

Moving on to HOF Monitor (explanation), the all-time leaders are Ty Cobb 451, Stan Musial 442, and Babe Ruth 422. The list of candidates being considered doesn't fair to well here either, with these ones being in the top 200 all-time: Oliva 114 (122nd), Oliver 113, Allen 99, Wills 98, Torre 96, O'Doul 92, Santo 88, Gordon 87, Pinson 87, Maris 83, Hodges 83. It is said that a likely hall-of-famer (not average) would score over 100 on this metric. Which means that Oliva and Oliver look pretty good here. And most tellingly, there really aren't any clear-cut, no-brainer guys who are in the hall-of-fame but who fail to get a 100 mark here.

Lastly, consider the results for these guys from Bill James' Win Shares system. For context, the all-time leaders in Win Shares are Babe Ruth 756, Ty Cobb 722, and Barry Bonds 686. The results for the hitters I've been considering are: Dick Allen 342, Ron Santo 324, Vada Pinson 321, Joe Torre 315, Al Oliver 305, Bobby Bonds 302, Mickey Vernon 296, Minnie Minoso 283, Ken Boyer 279, Rocky Colavito 273, Gil Hodges 263, Maury Wills 253, Tony Oliva 245, Joe Gordon 242, Roger Maris 223, Curt Flood 221, Thurmon Munson 206, Marty Marion 177, Cecil Travis 169, Lefty O'Doul 144.

My understanding is that historically speaking getting 400 Win Shares means you are a lock for the Hall of Fame. Players who get over 300 are more likely than not to get in. So this would point in favor of Allen, Santo, Pinson, Torre, Oliver, and the elder Bonds. But is also worth noting some other non-HOFers and their career Win Shares: Bill Dahlen 394, Darrell Evans 363, Rusty Staub 358, Sherry Magee 354, Lou Whitaker 351, Dwight Evans 347, and even Bobby Grich 329, Tommy Leach 328, Reggie Smith 325, Willie Davis 322, Graig Nettles 321, Jack Clark 316. And I could have listed many others here that are over 300... the point just being that before one argues for Dick Allen for the Hall-of-Fame because of his 342 Win Shares, they'd also need to one day argue for the likes of Darrell Evans and Rusty Staub -- something I assume few would be willing to do.

And now for the pitchers in the listing Mr. Mathews gave us. Again, the basic highlights:

• Jim Kaat - 283-237 W-L, 3.45 ERA vs. 3.69 lgERA, 1.259 WHIP, 3 AS, 16 GG
• Carl Mays - 207-126 W-L, 2.92 ERA vs. 3.48 lgERA, 1.207 WHIP
• Luis Tiant - 229-172 W-L, 3.30 ERA vs. 3.76 lgERA, 1.199 WHIP, 3 AS
• Wes Ferrell - 193-128 W-L, 4.04 ERA vs. 4.72 lgERA, 1.481 WHIP, 2 AS
• Don Newcombe - 149-90 W-L, 3.56 ERA vs. 4.04 lgERA, 1.203 WHIP, 4 AS, 1 CYA, 1 MVP
• Sparky Lyle - 238 SV, 2.88 ERA vs. 3.65 lgERA, 1.275 WHIP, 3 AS, 1 CYA
• Mickey Lolich - 217-191 W-L, 3.44 ERA vs. 3.59 lgERA, 1.227 WHIP, 3 AS

For the starters, what about 20-win seasons? Kaat (3), Mays (5), Tiant (4), Ferrell (6), Newcombe (3), Lolich (2). Plus it should be noted that Ferrell was a pretty good hitter, batting .280 over his career with 38 HR in 1,176 ABs. Newcombe wasn't bad at the plate either, hitting .271 with 15 HR in 878 ABs.

For Black Ink scores, the all-time top three are Walter Johnson 150, Pete Alexander 126, and Lefty Grove 108. Roger Clemens is tied for 5th with 100. For the pitchers under consideration here, we get: Ferrell 25, Mays 23, Newcombe 21, Kaat 16, Lolich 15, Tiant 13, Lyle 7. So 25 doesn't seem that great, but then again, Bob Gibson only scores a 20 and Eddie Plank 15. The average Hall-of-Famer gets around 27 they say, so no one here quite makes it, and some fall noticeably short. Lastly, this measurement isn't very useful for relievers, so the fact that Lyle scores a 7 means little. Fingers only scored a 12 and Sutter 15.

For Gray Ink scores, the all-time top three are Cy Young 472, Walter Johnson 420, and Warren Spahn 371. Maddux is the top active hurler with 327 (6th all-time). For this group we get: Mays 172 (67th), Ferrell 170 (71st), Lolich 156 (86th), Newcombe 136, Kaat 125, Tiant 115, Lyle 46. But interestingly not too many clear Hall-of-Fame pitchers are lower than Mays 172 score. Supposedly the average hall-of-famer gets about 144 on this metric, so that would make Mays, Ferrell, and Lolich look pretty good. There are dominant short-career guys like Sandy Koufax 151, Addie Joss 143, and Dizzy Dean 137 who score lower than them, .but the others in the Hall of Fame who score lower than Mays' 172 are pretty much all debateable selections -- so I don't their scores here think helps much actually.

Next up is HOF Career Standards, where the all-time top three pitchers are Christy Mathewson 84, Cy Young 82, and Walter Johnson 82. The top current pitcher is Roger Clemens with 72. This crew scores as follows: Kaat 44, Mays 44, Tiant 41, Lolich 37, Ferrell 33, Newcombe 33, Lyle 18. So the scores of Kaat and Mays put them just ahead of hall-of-famers like Catfish Hunter 42, Don Drysdale 42, Jim Bunning 42, and then plenty of others who score in the 30s. Remembering that 50 is the score for an "average Hall-of-Famer", none of this amounts to a rining endorsement either.

Moving on to HOF Monitor, the all-time top three pitchers are Walter Johnson 365, Cy Young 332, and Roger Clemens 326. For this crowd we get: Kaat 129.5, Mays 114, Lolich 98.5, Tiant 97, Newcombe 78, Lyle 78, and Ferrell 75. A likely hall-of-famer is one who gets over 100, so that looks promising for Kaat and Mays by this standard, and even Lolich and Tiant come close. Ferrell does noticeably worse on this one than on the three earlier ones. And for comparison purposes, here are just a few lower-end hall-of-famers' scores: Robin Roberts 127, Dizzy Dean 111, Hoyt Wilhelm 107, Jim Bunning 92, Bruce Sutter 91. But there are many over 100 amongst pitchers who I don't think are hall-of-fame material: Vida Blue 114, Allie Reynolds 110, David Cone 103, and others.

And lastly we'll again consider Bill James' Win Shares results for pitching (ignoring the negligible amounts they earned as hitters). Here the all-time leaders are Cy Young 634, Walter Johnson 560, and Kid Nichols 478. The results for these candidates are: Kaat 268, Tiant 256, Mays 256, Ferrell 233, Lolich 224, Newcombe 176, Lyle 161. So none of these guys got over 300, deemed an important Win Shares threshold. But it is worth noting that Kaat 268 mark is higher than Juan Marichal's 263, as well as Whitey Ford 261, Don Drysdale 258, Jim Bunning 257, and numberous other lesserr-known pitchers already enshrined.

So... in the end, who would I vote for. The results from the five metrics used above are quite mixed, so no clearly deserving candidates emerge for me. Obviously if you factor in his management career Joe Torre must get in eventually. But leaving that aside, based only on player career, it is tough to make a case for any of these guys. I can't easily choose Hodges over Santo, or vice-versa. Or toss in Minoso, Torre, Pinson, Oliva, Boyer, or even Oliver. But I'd draw the line for serious discussion there. I am really against Maris as a Hall-of-Famer, nor would you get far with me arguing for Flood, Marion, Travis, or O'Doul. For the pitchers, I'd probably only go for Kaat. Although Ferrell is an interesting case, and I'd consider Tiant and Mays too. But not Lolich, Newcombe, or Lyle. No way Lyle should get in before Gossage, even if he did so via the Veterans' Committee vote mechanism.

On Sheffield, Griffey, and Thomas

Fellow SABR-member Bill Gilbert recently wrote an essay reporting the highest Win Shares (see WP entry) of active players. In it he notes that Gary Sheffield has now reached the magic 400 Win Shares total for his career, a mark that Bill James has noted means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame (barring exclusion as in the case of Pete Rose of course). Only three active position players have topped 400: Barry Bonds with 686, Craig Biggio with 422, and now Sheffield with 402. This was surprising to me. I twice last year (here, and then here), stated that I considered Frank Thomas a stronger HOF candidate than Sheffield. Also, note that this means that Sheffield currently has more Win Shares than Ken Griffey Jr. Of course these two are next in line in Win Shares for active hitters: Thomas has 383 and Griffey has 367.

So I thought it would be interesting to compare these three guys a bit, to see if my intuitions could be supported by the numbers and metrics. If all three retired today, I think Griffey would get into the HOF the fastest (perhaps on the first ballot, though his popularity could help his cause), followed by Thomas, and then Sheffield lagging behind. Comparing them by conventional raw stats, they are similar in runs, rbis, BA, SLG, and even HR -- though Griffey has 563 to Thomas 487 and Sheffield 455. Thomas has a noticeably higher OBP than the other two (.424 vs. .398 for Sheffield and only .374 for Jr.). But Thomas has had vertually no steals (32) compared with Sheffield's 220 and Griffey's 178.

In terms of honors and awards, Thomas has 2 MVPs, compared with Griffey's 1 and Sheffield's 0. But he only made 5 all-star teams (bizarre in retrospect!), compared with 9 for Sheffield and 12 for Griffey (a fan favorite).

As for defense, of course Griffey reigns with 10 gold glove awards.

Then comparing four other HOF-tracking ratings:

• Black Ink (explained): Sheffield 4, Griffey 26, Thomas 21
• Gray Ink (explained): Sheffield 118, Griffey 160, Thomas 200
• HOF Standards (explained): Sheffield 57, Griffey 58, Thomas 59
• HOF Monitor (explained): Sheffield 132, Griffey 209, Thomas 184

So that is curious... they are virtually tied for HOF Standards, but Sheffield does significantly worse in the other three ratings.

All of this, in my opinion, explains why my intuition is that Sheffield should trail behind Thomas and Griffey in Hall-of-Fame consideration, and hence my surprise that he currently leads in James' Win Shares formula.

Oh... and who is next after Griffey in Win Shares for hitters? Would you believe that A-Rod already has 340 and Manny Ramirez already has 334? Yikes!

On Switch Hitters and Speed

I received an email recently from a fellow member of SABR (The Society for American Baseball Research), that was asking opinions on who the all-time best switch hitters were. I immediately thought of who I consider the "Big 3" to be: Mickey Mantle, Pete Rose, and Eddie Murray. But after that I wasn't as sure... a few other names came to mind, but I decided that before responding I should consult baseball-reference.com. After doing so, I responded as follows:

"I'd rank them as follows:
1. Mickey Mantle
2. Pete Rose
3. Eddie Murray
4. Frankie Frisch
5. Roberto Alomar

Close call between Alomar and Chipper Jones. I might switch Jones and Alomar by the time Jones retires. Also, if it is just hitting -- then I'd choose Jones for #5 here... but I think Alomar is the better all-around player (including defense and speed). So depending on what you are after, you might need to switch my fifth-place vote.

Honorable mention to: Max Carey, Tim Raines, Ted Simmons, Bernie Williams, Chili Davis, Ken Singleton, Ozzie Smith, Omar Vizquel."

But in doing this little bit of research, I noticed (or re-noticed) an interesting fact. Only 1 of the top 100 players in all-time batting average was a switch-hitter: Frankie Frisch who ranks 70th. For Home-runs, only 4 of the top 100 were switch hitters: Mickey Mantle ranks 13th, Eddie Murray ranks 20th, and two others.

But 20 of the top 100 all-time base-stealers were switch-hitters. Indeed, 8 of the top 21 were switch hitters. There is Tim Raines who ranks 5th, Vince Coleman 6th, Max Carey 9th, Willie Wilson 12th, Otis Nixon 15th, George Davis 16th, Maury Wills 19th, Ozzie Smith 21st, and so on.

So that made me wonder: why would that be? Why would switch-hitting correlate much more with base-stealing than with hitting for power or hitting for batting average? Likely someone has already written about this -- perhaps many SABR members have! But without looking into others' research on this question, I can think of a three possibilities:

1. If they started off as right-handed batters, but knew they were fast, so became switch hitters in order to sometimes bat lefty and get the added step or two towards first to beat out bunts and infield hits (or so they might have thought as youngsters). I checked those 20 switch hitters in the top 100 SB, and 17 throw right-handed, with only 3 throwing left-handed. So I'd be inclined to say that many of these folks were natural right-handed hitters.

2. As young players, if speed is your major (perhaps only) real strength, then learning to switch-hit can make you more valuable to the team. Or so the thinking of fathers and coaches might be.

3. Another possibility is a bit more complicated. Say kids determine (through observation or advice from parents or coaches) that becoming a switch hitter is a good idea during little-league and high-school baseball years. Say it is seen to raise your value to the team, because you can hit well against both righties and lefties, and so on. But then as you rise up the competitive ladder, it becomes more and more difficult to compete as a switch-hitter. Most hitters are perfecting their swing from just one side of the plate, and a SH has to work on both. If you lack speed (or other tools of the game, like defense), then you might be more likely to abandon switch-hitting in order to focus on just high-average hitting or power-hitting, and to do this best, you might think you should focus on just hitting RH or LH. But if you have a lot of speed, if that is your prime asset, then you might not be as driven to improve your BA or your power numbers, and so stick with switch hitting. Once you have reached the ultimate level, the MLB level, it is quite difficult for you as a switch-hitter to excel in BA or HR, relative to your peers, because they for years have been perfecting their swing from just one side of the plate or the other. So you don't rate amongst the best in those categories, but your great speed still allows you to swipe all those bases.

Just my speculations on this...

How Not to Argue for Hodges, Maris for the HOF

I read in my local newspaper today a letter to the editor by Jerry Ryan, who is described as "a die-hard Yankees fan and a dedicated baseball historian." An editor noted that in the letter Ryan discusses two players "who he feels have been unjustly overlooked throughout the years" in terms of their deserving entrance into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Without intending it, I think this editor was being very precise in his choice of the word "feels", because I suspect that is exactly what I think is going on here. Ryan's photos shows someone with gray hair, so I suspect he might fondly remember Roger Maris (being a Yankees fan), and also no doubt remembers Gil Hodges (at least as a manager, if not during his prime playing years). I say that because I don't think that Ryan is really doing a lot of good thinking about these players and whether they are deserving of HOF membership. That might be too harsh an assessment -- based on just one brief letter to the editor -- but since his support of these two players falls into the common fallacies of reasoning that so often afflicts those who argue pro or con a player's HOF membership, I thought it would make for a good, instructive (and fun!) blog posting.

The only thing he writes about Roger is "Maris is the only man to beat Babe Ruth without the taint of steroids." True enough. But that is talking about one season only. Clearly one year does not make a career. And take a look at Roger Maris's career accomplishments. After several mediocre seasons for KC and Cleveland, he burst onto the NY scene in 1960, winning the MVP award with 39 HR and 112 RBI. And then 1961 was the historic season, where he and Mantle fought for the HR record, with Maris eventually blasting 61 HR with 142 RBI, 132 Runs -- though only a .269 BA (he of course took home MVP again that year). But after that season he began to fade, and other than those two years, he never was in the top 20 in MVP balloting. He was only an All-Star 4 times. He hit 30+ HR only three times. Heck, he even only had 150+ hits twice! Lifetime numbers are 275 HR, , 851 RBI, .260 BA, .476 SLG, with essentially no speed (21 SB). He did win one gold glove, but consider his various HOF measurements:

• Black Ink: Batting - 18 (122) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
• Gray Ink: Batting - 57 (423) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
• HOF Standards: Batting - 22.0 (608) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
• HOF Monitor: Batting - 83.0 (197) (Likely HOFer > 100)

So he comes up short across the board. And then look at his most "Similar Batters" ratings, where a rating over 900 is considered quite relevant indeed:

1. Bob Allison (946)
2. Hank Sauer (939)
3. Jay Buhner (922)
4. Jesse Barfield (918)
5. Dean Palmer (914)
6. Tony Armas (914)
7. Eric Davis (907)
8. Danny Tartabull (905)
9. Jermaine Dye (902)
10. Bill Nicholson (902)

No of course no one is going to argue for these guys for the HOF, nor should they. Are Maris's two MVP seasons, and the one being a record-setting year, enough to vault his resume above these guys -- who have similar career numbers -- and into the elite circle of hall-of-famers? I just don't think so. Should there be a display commemorating his great season in Cooperstown? You betcha. No doubt. But should he be a member? No way.

As for Gil Hodges, Mr. Ryan commits a classic HOF argumentative fallacy. Here is what he writes:

Hodges had a higher lifetime batting average than Harmon Killebrew and Willie
McCovey; more hits than Frank Chance, Hank Greenberg and George Kelly; and more home runs than Greenberg and Johnny Mize.

Gil was a man of great character and modesty. He was magnificent in the field. And, oh yeah, he led the "Amazing Mets" of 1969 to victory. Did I mention Hodges once hit four home runs in a single game?

Hodges is not outclassed among the 18 first-basemen currently in the Hall of Fame.

Mr Ryan does at least one thing correctly, as he limits his comparisons to players who play the same (or at least comparable) positions. But beyond that good start, can you spot the obvious flaws in his reasoning?

First, he starts by comparing Hodges with Willie McCovey and Harmon Killebrew, noting that Hodges as a higher batting average than either: Hodges has a .273 BA, while McCovey has .270, while Killebrew has a lowly .256. But this is not very valuable on its own. Batting average varies a great deal between leagues and eras, so one needs to consider BA relative to those factors. The lgBA for Hodges was .273 -- exactly what Gil hit! But the lgBA for McCovey was only .261, so McCovey's BA was 9 points higher than the average of his contemporaries. And Killebrew's lgBA was .259, which drastically alters one's perception of his lowly .256 mark.

But beyond that, one also needs to realize that BA is not why Willie and Harmon are in the HOF -- they are there for their massive power numbers. McCovey hit 521 HR and 1555 RBI, and had a .515 SLG percentage (compare with .388 lgSLG). Harmon hit 573 HR and 1584 RBI, and had a .509 SLG percentage (compare with .392 lgSLG). Compare these numbers with Hodges: 370 HR, 1274 RBI, and .487 SLG (compare with .420 lgSLG). While Willie and Harmon, did each have about 1,000 more at-bats than Gil, they clearly had more power (see esp. their higher SLG in eras with lower league average slugging)... and it is mostly because of their power that they are in the HOF.

Mr. Ryan then goes on with the same reasoning style by comparing Hodges hit total (1,921 -- which isn't very impressive frankly) with that of Frank Chance (1,273), Hank Greenberg (1,628)and George Kelly (1,778). But again, their career hit total is not the main reason these three are in the Hall of Fame. Chance was a high average hitter (.296 BA vs. .264 lgBA) with speed (401 SB) who had a fine eye at the plate (.394 OBP vs. .326 lgOBP). Even more importantly, Chance was a player-manager for most of his career, leading the Cubs (yes, the Cubs) to two World Series championships and two other NL pennants. Hodges' managerial career, 1969 notwithstanding, does not compare well.

Hank Greenberg is a Hall-of-Famer because, although his career was relatively short, his many strong seasons were very strong. Unlike Maris who had two really great years, Greenberg had seven of them (plus a few other mediocre ones). While he played during a very offensive era (the 1930s), his numbers are still impressive: .313 BA vs. .286 lgBA, .412 OBP vs. .361 lgOBP, and .605 SLG vs. .419 lgSLG. He had HR totals including 36, 40, 41, 44, and 58. And he had RBI totals including 127, 139, 146, 150, 170, and 183. He twice took home MVP honors, and four others times was in the top-10 in balloting.

George "Highpockets" Kelly is not in the HOF because of his lifetime hits either. He was a .297 hitter who five times had 100+ RBI. But actually, comparing Hodges with Kelly comitt a different HOF Fallacy. It is highly debateable whether Kelly should even be in the HOF. Bill James argues quite persuasively in his wonderful book What Ever Happend to the Hall of Fame? that the veterans committee, beginning in 1970, made a series of "simply appalling selections, littering the Hall of Fame with... [players] from the New York Giants (1919-1926) and the St. Louis Cardinals (1927-1937)." This was due to prominent members of the veterans committee at that time, most notably Frankie Frisch and Bill Terry, getting their teammates chosen. James goes into even greater depth on this issue in his book The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. He even goes so far as to say that Kelly might be the worst player in the Hall of Fame! And since he argues so well that Kelly was only nominated due to favoritism on the veterans' committee, comparing a player you are arguing in favor with Kelly just doesn't seem like a good strategy.

Mr. Ryan continues to compare Hodges lifetime home runs (370) with the likes of Greenberg (331) and Johnny Mize (359). As I already noted, Greenberg hit those HR during some truly outstanding seasons. Indeed, he smashed those 330 in only 5,193 at-bats, while it took Gil 7,030 at-bats. You can say the same, to a lesser extent, regarding Johnny Mize, who hit his 359 in only 6,443 at-bats, with 51 in 1947 being his career high. But again, Mize wasn't just about HR: he had a .312 BA vs. .274 lgBA, .397 OBP vs. .345 lgOBP, and .562 SLG vs. .395 lgSLG -- all of which are notably superior to Hodges' numbers.

The rest of Mr. Ryan's point about Hodges are all fine and well-taken. I won't argue against Gil's modesty and good character, although I will note that the famed 1969 World Series win was the lone bright spot of his managerial career (he had a lifetime .467 record as a manager).

None of this is to say that Hodges isn't at least a borderline candidate for the Hall of Fame, and perhaps, in the end deserving of the recognition. I'd consider him one of the ten most deserving currently up for consideration by the veterans' committee. But if you are going to argue in favor of him, you need to do so in a stronger way. The 1969 World Series aside, it is worth noting that Gil had seven consecutive 100+ RBI seasons. He had 11 consecutive 20+ HR seasons, and six of these were 30+. Granted he didn't run well (63 SB lifetime), but 1B usually aren't known for speed on the bases. He won three gold-gloves from 1957-59, and was an all-star 8 times. And while he never rated higher than 7th in the MVP balloting, he did get votes in 9 seasons. So those are all fine things won can say that are relevant when considering his HOF resume, and none of them commit classic HOF argument errors.

On the con side, however, won must consider his various HOF-relevant ratings. As we saw with Maris earlier, Hodges doesn't fair so well here:

• Black Ink: Batting - 2 (579) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
• Gray Ink: Batting - 128 (137) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
• HOF Standards: Batting - 31.7 (249) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
• HOF Monitor: Batting - 83.0 (197) (Likely HOFer > 100)

Far better than Maris on the Gray Ink, but not as well on Black Ink, and tied on HOF Monitor. And then consider the Similar Batter scores for Hodges:

1. Norm Cash (932)
2. George Foster (921)
3. Tino Martinez (921)
4. Jack Clark (916)
5. Boog Powell (898)
6. Joe Adcock (895)
7. Lee May (894)
8. Rocky Colavito (893)
9. Willie Horton (888)
10. Roy Sievers (880)

This perhaps a better looking list than Maris has. But none of these guys are, or should be, Hall of Famers.

Since I mentioned the wonderful The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, I thought I'd also toss some of his rankings of all-time 1B (through 2001 I think). He starts off of course with Gehrig and Foxx, followed by McGwire (one wonders if a newer version of his list would send McGwire plummeting due to the steroid scandal). Bagwell and Murray are enxt, but then we see four of the players Mr. Ryan mentioned ranked 6-9: Mize, Killebrew, Greenberg, and McCovey. Then come the likes of Frank Thomas (likely for HOF), Cap Anson, Don Mattingly (not in HOF), Tony Perez, and Will Clark (not in HOF). Then Dick Allen at 15th (not in HOF), Keith Hernandez (not in HOF), Orlando Cepeda, Dan Brouthers, and then another scandal-ridden star, Rafael Palmeiro. At 20th we have Norm Cash (not in HOF), then Fred McGriff (questionable for HOF), Roger Connor, Mickey Vernon (not in HOF), George Sisler, Frank Chance, Bill Terry, Boog Powell (not in HOF), Cecil Cooper (not in HOF), and Dolf Camilli (not in HOF). It is only here, at the 30th spot in the list, that we see Gil Hodges. And it is interesting that James' brief writeup for Hodges at this point is entirely centered on how "beloved" a player he was, and how well he was able to accept the public's adoration for him.

So in the end I'm on the fence about Gil Hodges and the HOF. But what I hope I've shown in this posting is that if you are going to argue for Hodges (or Maris even), you need argue with the right amunition, and not commit classic HOF Fallacies.

Congratulations to Mr. Ripken and Mr. Gwynn

I recently wrote about the 2007 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, here and then a bit more here.

I was glad to hear that both Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn are going into the Baseball Hall of Fame this year, during their first year or eligibility -- though it was obvious that they would be. One question was whether either -- and esp. Ripken -- would become the first unanimous selection. It didn't happen, but Ripken did place third all-time, with 98.53% of the votes (537 out of 545). What those 8 "no" voters were thinking is beyond me. And Gwynn got an also outstanding 97.61% of the vote (see this ESPN article for the basic news coverage of the results). The all-time top 13 percentage votes are now as follows:

• 98.84 Tom Seaver
• 98.79 Nolan Ryan
• 98.53 Cal Ripken
• 98.23 Ty Cobb
• 98.19 George Brett
• 97.83 Hank Aaron
• 97.61 Tony Gwynn
• 96.52 Mike Schmidt
• 96.42 Johnny Bench
• 95.82 Steve Carlton
• 95.13 Honus Wagner
• 95.13 Babe Ruth
• 94.68 Willie Mays

I listed the top-13 because that is now where Willie Mays ends up -- how could 23 of 432 voters not vote for him?! In my view, all of these 13 are clear-cut hall-of-famers, so I would have rather seen them (and others as well) all tied at the top with 100% of their possible vote totals.

For interesting data on the vote's history, and the players in the HOF, see this page.

I'll share some additional thoughts on this year's voting results. First, I would have liked to have seen Rich Gossage get in this year as well. He came very close, climbing from 64.6% to 71.2%. The requirement is 75% to get in. I think this might be in part because Bruce Sutter, a contemporary relief pitcher with Gossage, was finally elected last year, so perhaps this caused some voters to reconsider, or "allowed" them to now vote for Gossage (if their thinking was that they wanted to see Sutter get in first).

Gossage actually jumped ahead of Red Sox slugger Jim Rice, who actually slipped a bit from 64.8% to 63.5%. Andre Dawson remained in the next spot, but also slipped a bit from 61% to 56.7%. In future years, that lack such obvious superstars like Ripken and Gwynn, I'd like to think at least Dawson will make it in -- I definitely think he deserves it, though I'd vote for Rice too. The other one that I have stated I think is deserving, pitcher Bert Blyleven, also fell in vote percentage, from 53.3% to 47.7%.

In fact, most returning candidates fell several percentage points this year, and I can think of only the Ripken/Gwynn effect as the reason for this. This includes the likes of Lee Smith (39.8%), Jack Morris (37.1%), Tommy John (22.9%), Steve Garvey (21.1%), Alan Trammell (13.4%), Dave Parker (11.4%), Don Mattingly (9.9%), and Dale Murphy (9.2%). The one exception in this crowd was SS Dave Concepcion, who rose from 12.5% to 13.6%, jumping ahead of Trammell and Parker in the process.

Several players fell far enough to no longer be eligible next year, as you must get 5% of the vote to stay on the ballot. Most notably, pitcher Orel Hershiser dropped from 11.2% to 4.4%. Albert Belle also went from 7.7% to 3.5%.

Only two other first-timers got enough support to remain for next year. Mark McGwire got 23.5%, but given the steroid clouds that hang over him, it will be a tough battle to gain much more support than that, in the near term at least. And Harold Baines barely got enough, at 5.3%. I think he could rise a bit in future years, but my earlier prediction seems on target: I doubt he'll ever make it in. And hey, I was even correct in my prediction as to who the four weakest on the ballot were... I said that the four weakest candidates were Devon White, Wally Joyner, Scott Brosius, and Bobby Witt... and these are the four guys who didn't get a single vote!

Jeff Bagwell Retires

Longtime Houston Astros slugger and first-baseman Jeff Bagwell, 38, finally announced his retirement, after a couple seasons of speculation due to his ailing shoulder. He didn't play at all in 2006, and had only 100 at-bats in 2005. Before that he had played 14 full seasons, and along with friend and teammate Craig Biggio, has been a stable force for the Astros.

Now the question arises: is he a Hall-of-Famer? Here are some of his career accomplishments:

• .297 BA, .408 OBP, .540 SLG
• 449 HR, 480 doubles, 202 SB
• 1,517 Runs, 1,529 RBIs
• 9 100-Run seasons, including 143 in 1999 and 152 in 2000
• 8 100-RBI seasons, including 5 with 120+
• Was having his best year in strike-shortened 1994 (.368, 39 HR, 116 RBI in 110 games)
• NL MVP in 1994, NL ROY in 1991
• 1 Gold Glove (1994), 4-time All-Star
• Led NL in Runs 3 times, RBIs 1 time, and games 4 times (162 each)
• Played entire career with one team
• However... didn't do well in post-season (.226 in 106 ABs)

So on the whole that is an impressive resume I think. He walked a lot, so his OBP is very high. He was very productive, both scoring and driving in a heck of a lot of runs. He was good defensively, and took home some individual honors. He was strangely an all-star only four times, and didn't do well in the post-season, but overall, his resume is strong I think.

But I think it will take him a while to get into the HOF once he is eligible. It is taking Jim Rice a while (and it isn't certain he'll make it), and compare his numbers:

• .298 BA, .352 OBP, .502 SLG
• 382 HR, 373 doubles, 58 SB
• 1,249 Runs, 1,451 RBIs
• 3 100-Run seasons
• 8 100-RBI seasons, including 4 with 120+
• AL MVP in 1978
• 8-time All-Star
• Led AL in Hits 1 time, total-bases 4 times, HR 3 times, RBIs 2 times
• Played entire career with one team
• However... didn't do well in post-season (.225 in 71 ABs)

Rice's numbers are bit lower almost across the board, but he played a generation earlier when the average offensive numbers weren't as impressive, so that I think evens out the comparison a bit (though not for OBP). Also, Rice's speed was definitely less than Bagwell's. But he made twice as many all-star teams, and led the league in important categories more often. Interesting that they both faired about as well in the post-season (not very well).

Or compare Bagwell with Rice's contemporary from the NL, Dave Parker:

• .290 BA, .339 OBP, .471 SLG
• 339 HR, 526 doubles, 154 SB
• 1,272 Runs, 1,493 RBIs
• 3 100-Run seasons
• 4 100-RBI seasons
• NL MVP in 1978
• 3 Gold-Gloves, 7-time All-Star
• Led NL in batting average 2 times, in Hits 1 time, total-bases 3 times, RBIs 1 time
• Played little over half career with the Pirates, then played for five other teams
• However... didn't do well in post-season (.234 in 111 ABs)

Parker was a bit less of a straight power hitter than Rice, though while he took home two batting titles he ended up with a lower career BA than Rice. He had more speed than Rice, comparable to Bagwell's I'd say. To compare the raw career numbers we must note that Parker had more At-Bats (9,358 vs. 7,797) -- though like Rice he didn't play in the current era of bloated offensive stats. He had a strong OF arm, which earned him three Gold Gloves, but like both Bagwell and Rice didn't do so well in the post-season.

Lastly, it is helpful to compare Bagwell's numbers with those of contemporaries with similar totals:

• Frank Thomas (.305, .424, .566, 487 HR, 1404 Runs, 1547 RBIs, 32 SB, 2 MVPs, 5 AS... in 7422 At-bats)
• Gary Sheffield (.297, .398, .525, 455 HR, 1433 Runs, 1501 RBIs, 220 SB, 9 AS... in 8,037 At-bats)
• Fred McGriff (..284, .377, .509, 493 HR, 1349 Runs, 1550 RBIs, 72 SB, 5 AS... in 8,757 at-bats)

I think Thomas has the strongest resume, and he is still swinging away and will likely pad his numbers before he is done. Sheffield and Bagwell currently have pretty similar numbers -- Sheffield was never an MVP, but came in second once... and has been an all-star more than twice as often). McGriff doesn't compare as well because he had about 1,000 more at-bats to get his extra HRs, but had less speed than Bagwell and didn't have as impressive peak performances. He was very steady over the years, but that often doesn't translate into HOF status -- hence I expect he will struggle to get into the HOF when he becomes eligible in 2010.

In summary, Bagwell would get my vote if I had one.

More On 2007 HOF Candidates

Since my post on the 2007 Baseball HOF Candidates, I've read the views of two other people, and found their writeups interesting, so I thought I'd mention them.

Bob Mathews, the sports columnist for my local (Rochester) newspaper, wrote about this subject this past Sunday. His views are very much in line with my own, namely that Ripken and Gwynn will certainly get in as first-year candidates, and that Rice, Dawson, Gossage, and Blyleven all deserve to be in as well. Amongst the other first-timers, he rates Canseco lower than I did, no doubt because of the steroids issue. And I think he ranks Wally Joyner way to high, by listing him before Eric Davis, Dante Bichette, and Jay Buhner (and Canseco). As for returning folks, he ranks them Tommy John, Dave Parker, Jack Morris, Lee Smith, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Steve Garvey, Dave Concepcion, Alan Trammell, Albert Belle, Orel Hershiser. What I particularly like about that ordering is Parker near the top, because I think he hasn't gotten enough support in the vote yet, especially relative to contemporary Jim Rice.

The other analysis I've read recently is from Steve Goldman, provided in three parts, starting with Part 1, and then with Parts 2 and 3 (shown out of order on this page) finished on a blog. We are in agreement that Blyleven and Goose should be in. He also thinks Dawson has a strong case for induction, and I agree there.

His verdict on Dale Murphy is "He would be a good choice. He was a Hall of Famer before his early collapse." which means he prefers Murphy over Rice and Parker, as his verdict on Parker is "No", and on Rice it is "just a little short". I think Goldman contradicts himself here, as he says for Rice "Like Parker, he's just a little short. At their peaks, both were as good as any of the greats, but they didn't stay at that level long enough, mixing in several weaker seasons." How is that different or worse than Murphy's resume?! I might be for all three of these guys, but I think the order should be Rice, Parker close behind, and then Murphy after them.

Also, his verdict on Concepcion is that "He'd be a reasonable selection.", something I disagree with. To me, this means he'll likely be in favor of Omar Vizquel getting into the HOF one day, something I argued against here.

And speaking of middle infielders, Goldman is higher on Trammell than I am as well. I don't think Trammell is a HOFer, just as I don't think his DP partner Lou Whitaker is a HOFer. I wonder if Goldman thinks it was a horrible wrong that Lou was dismissed from the ballot so quickly? Compare the careers of Whitaker and Trammell for yourself -- they are freakishly similar.

2007 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

The Baseball Hall-of-Fame sent out a nice press release recently in regards to the 2007 list of nominees. Tony Gwynn is quotes a few times.

Here is my take on this years nominees, with a few fearless predictions.

1. Only two will be nominated from this list of candidates. Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken. It seems Ripken could come close to breaking Tom Seaver's all-time record for percentage of votes cast, perhaps even be the first even unanimous selection. Gwynn will also get a very high vote total, no doubt.

2. Most pundits seem to think Mark McGwire will not only not get in on his first try, but that voters will punish him over the steroid scandal, and he won't even get 50% of the vote. That wouldn't surprise me, though many of those voters likely think he should eventually be in the HOF, so if he does poorly this year, I bet his vote total will go up a lot in 2008, perhaps enough to make it in.

3. Beyond those big three names, the next biggest new candidate -- and the only one that I think might one day make it in -- is Harold Baines. He finished with 2,866 hits in nearly 10,000 at-bats. He had 384 HR, 488 Doubles, 1,299 Runs, 1,628 RBIs, and a .289 average. He was an all-star six times, but never ranked higher than 9th in the MVP voting. He played a long time and was obviously a steady and good hitter, but never really exceptional. Despite his high career total, he only had 100+ RBI three times. He never had 30 or more HR in a season either. And he played a majority of his games at DH (1644) vs. the OF (1061).

For what its worth (from baseball-reference.com), his Black Ink rating is only 3 (average HOFer is around 27), his Gray Ink rating is only 40 (average HOFer is around 144), his HOF standards rating is 43.5 (average HOFer is around 50), and his HOF Monitor rating is 66.5 (a likely HOFer is over 100). His "most similar batter" rating is with Tony Perez (934) who is in the HOF, but it took him a long time to get there. Only two of his next nine most similar hitters are in the HOF or are likely to be (Al Kaline and Billy Williams).

So I doubt he'll get voted in for a long time, if ever.

4. Some of the other first-timers on the ballot were fine players, but not HOF material (in declining order of how good I think their careers were, not necessarily how I think they'll rank in the vote):

• Jose Canseco - 462 HR, 1,407 RBI, 1,186 Runs, 200 SB, but only .266 average. First ever 40-40 man, and had 6 100+ RBI seasons. All-star six times, ROY in 1986, and MVP in 1988. He was and is the poster child for the steroid scandal in baseball.
  
• Bret Saberhagen - 3.34 ERA, 167-117 record (.588 Pct), with 76 CG in 371 GS. Best season was 1989 when he went 23-6, with a 2.14 ERA to take home the AL Cy Young. Also took the trophy in 1985 with 20-6 mark and 2.87 ERA. All-star three times, and one gold-glove award.
  
• Paul O'Neill - 281 HR, 1,269 RBI, 1,041 Runs, 141 SB, .288 average. Like Baines, a good steady hitter, but not exceptional. Never had 30+ HR in a season, but had 20+ seven times. Four consecutive 100+ RBI seasons for the Yankees from 1997-2000. All-star five times, and led AL in batting in 1994 with .359 mark.
  
• Bobby Bonilla - 287 HR, 1173 RBI, 1084 Runs, .279 average. 6-time all-star. 4 seasons with 100+ RBI.
  
• Eric Davis - 282 HR, 349 SB, but only .269 average and struck out a lot. Injuries kept him from living up to his athletic abilities and the early hype. All-star two times, and won three gold-gloves.
  
• Tony Fernandez - 246 SB, .288 average with minimal power. All-star five times, and was an outstanding defender, winning the gold glove at SS four times.
  
• Jay Buhner - 310 HR, but only .254 average and struck out a lot. All-star only once, and won one gold-glove with his great arm. Was the subject of one of my all-time favorite lines from Seinfeld, when Frank Costanza is criticizing Steinbrenner "What the hell did you trade Jay Buhner for?! He had 30 home runs, over 100 RBIs last year! He's got a rocket for an arm... You don't know what the hell you're doing!"
  
• Dante Bichette - 274 HR, 1141 RBI, 152 SB, .299 average. All-star four times. Led NL in hits twice, and HR once. Had 100+ RBI five seasons in a row. But played his best years Colorado -- so while I don't have his home/road split data in front of me, I am assuming the rare air there padded his numbers a bit.

Then there are four others that I highly doubt will get enough votes to remain on the ballot for 2008:

• Devon White - 208 HR, 346 SB, but only .263 average and struck out a lot. All-star three times. Best attribute was his defense, where he won 7 gold gloves in CF. But played for small market teams, so I doubt he'll get many votes.
  
• Wally Joyner - 204 HR, 1106 RBI, .289 average. All-star only once, in his rookie season. He made a big splash early in his career, but then didn't live up to that early success. He also played for small market teams for most of years.
  
• Bobby Witt - 4.83 ERA, 142-157 record. Walked a lot of batters. Best season was 1990, when he went 17-10 with 221 K, and a 3.36 ERA. Obvioulsy not HOF material.
  
• Scott Brosius - 141 HR, .257 average. All-star once, and won GG award once at 3B. Obviously not HOF material.

Of those returning from last year's ballot, here is what they got in 2006 (75% of votes is needed):

• Jim Rice 337, 64.8%
• Rich Gossage 336, 64.6
• Andre Dawson 317, 61.0
• Bert Blyleven 277, 53.3
• Lee Smith 234, 45.0
• Jack Morris 214, 41.2
• Tommy John 154, 29.6
• Steve Garvey 135, 26.0
• Alan Trammell 92, 17.7
• Dave Parker 75, 14.4
• Dave Concepcion 65, 12.5
• Don Mattingly 64, 12.3
• Orel Hershiser 58, 11.2
• Dale Murphy 56, 10.8
• Albert Belle 40, 7.7

Given the big new names this year, I'll be surprised if any of these guys get the 75% needed for election. Some might go up a bit, but I bet many will go done some. Not surprisingly, I think the top four here might one day make it -- though I'd rank them Gossage, Dawson, Blyleven, Rice. I think Gossage should go in right after Sutter (last year), and Dawson is more deserving than Rice because of his better defense and speed. I think Parker and Murphys should be a bit higher in votes than they have gotten so far. And I am marginally against Lee Smith as a HOFer -- he certainly should not be elected before Goose is.

Baseball: Signs of the Time

A friend of mine from work (Tim Fressie) is involved in the production of an interesting baseball documentary video called Signs of the Time. It is about the history of baseball signs, and the two prominent people who from the distant past (one player, one umpire) who have argued that they deserve credit for inventing the system of signs. The trailer is very well done... check it out!

That's Why They Play the Games

To borrow a line from Chris Berman (usually in a football context), "That why they play the games!". The Yankees lost a third game in a row today, and therefore are out of the playoffs. This only a short time after I -- and many others -- touted them as having possibly the best batting lineup 1-9 ever. There starting pitching was a known weakness, but their bats just didn't do much during the past three games. After getting 14 hits and scoring 8 runs in game one, they totalled just 19 hits and 6 runs in the next three. Ouch.

Omar, Ozzie, and Others

On August 1st I posted my thoughts on a recent column from local sportswriter Bob Matthews where he described some current players as "locks" for the Baseball Hall of Fame and also gave his odds for other current stars' chances of making it. He gave Omar Vizquel only 10-90 odds of making it, and in my post I wrote:

"I wouldn't even go that high. He has 10 gold gloves and 357 SB, and likely won't play more than one or two more seasons, if that (hitting .302 so far this year though). He has only been an all-star three times. Compare that with Bill Mazeroski who was a middle-infielder and won 8 gold gloves and was an all-star 7 times, and it took the veterans committee to vote him in. And Vizquel of course doesn't compare with Ozzie Smith, who had 580 SB, 13 gold gloves and 15 all-star appearances."

But there has been some recent debate on this question on a baseball email discussion list that I get (SABR-L). The argument in Omar's favor follows a common pattern: "Person X is in, Person Y is comparable, so Person Y should get in too." In this case, Person X is Ozzie Smith, and Person Y is Omar Vizquel. Leaving aside the debate about the reasonableness (or lack thereof) for this kind of argument approach, I thought it would be fun to go ahead and do some comparing of Omar and Ozzie, and some other similar players as well. First, here are some comparisons made already on the list:Ozzie and Omar -- both switch-hitting shortstops

• Ozzie has 13 Gold Gloves vs. Omar with 10 (+1 likely again in 2006)
• Ozzie .262 BA, Omar .276
• Ozzie .337 OBP, Omar .342
• Ozzie .328 SLG, Omar .360
• Ozzie 1257 runs, Omar 1283
• Ozzie 793 RBIs, Omar 818
• Ozzie 402 2B, 69 3B, 28 HR, Omar 398 2B, 68 3B, 73 HR
• Ozzie 580 SB, Omar 366

Those arguing in favor of Omar note that yes, he has played in a different era, with much higher offensive stats. This definitely cuts into the worth of Omar's (relatively) higher HR numbers, and to some extent his comparable RBI total. For batting average, it very much lessens the difference, as the park-adjusted league batting average for Ozzie was .261, one point less than Ozzie's average, while Omar's league BA is about .270, six points less than Omar's own BA. So Omar has a +5 BA advantage over Ozzie, which is a big change instead of a +14 point direct comparison between them. Doing this with OBP is even more striking, as the league average for Ozzie was only .328 vs. league average for Omar of .340. So instead of Omar's OBP being +5 compared to Ozzie's, it is actually -7 when relativized to the league averages. And we can do the same for SLG, where the league average for Ozzie was .395, but for Omar it is .425. So Omar's comparative advantage here drops from +32 to just +2.

But there are more important things that weigh against Omar in such a comparison. He has far fewer stolen bases, 580 vs. 366. Ozzie's total puts him 21st all-time, while Omar's ranks him only 88th. That is a big difference.

And how about comparative fielding numbers? Omar's .984 FP is a bit better than Ozzie's .978, but importantly they are both +12 compared to park-adjusted league average. But when you look at RF (Range Factor), you can see one of Ozzie's great reasons for fame: his is 5.03 compared to a league average of 4.10, while Omar's is 4.42 compared to a league average of 4.12. Ozzie's is quite amazing and much better than average. I would argue that with greater range comes greater chance for error, because you put yourself in position to make more plays and so might make a few mistakes on those challenging plays and thereby be given a few errors that other, less talented players, wouldn't give themselves the chance to make.

I'll note that neither player has been very impressive during the Post Season. But one exception was Ozzie's 1985 NLCS against the Dodgers, when he went 10-23 (.435), and had a game-winning home run (so rare for him!) off Tom Niedenfuer in the 9th inning of the fifth game. He was named series MVP, although he then tanked in the World Series going 2-23 (.087) against the Royals.

I think it is important to note that Ozzie faired much better in MVP voting than Omar has. He received votes in 6 seasons, and came in second in 1987 (a high offense year), losing to Andre Dawson of the last-place Cubs! Omar has only garnered votes in one year, 1999, when he came in 16th in the vote.

Or how about comparing All-Star appearances? Ozzie was an All-Star an amazing 15 times, versus only 3 for Omar. Yes, Omar had stiff competition in the AL, faced with A-Rod, Jeter, Tejada, and Garciaparra. But still... 15 vs. 3?

I will grant that Ozzie and Omar do have each other as their "most similar batters", using the special equation devised by Bill James for determining this. So that is admittedly quite striking in this debate -- they have a 907 "Most Similar Batting" rating, for what its worth. Then next similar for both is HOFer Luis Aparicio (with Ozzie having a 904 similarity and Omar having a 903). But then (again, for what it is worth), Omar's third most similar is Dave Concepcion (891), while Ozzie and Concepcion are deemed less similar at only 831. Concepcion was a fine player. He did indeed have very similar offensive numbers to Omar (.267 BA, 101 HR, 950 RBI, 993 R, 321 SB). He was an all-star 9 times. He received MVP votes 3 times. And while he "only" won 5 gold gloves, he was up against Ozzie for the second half of his career! He had a .971 FP (compared to .964 for league average), and his Range Factor was a high 4.71 (compared to 4.30 for league average).

And yet, I don't think many people would argue for Dave Concepcion for the Hall of Fame. They certainly didn't vote for him very much... in his first year of eligibility (1994) he got 31 votes (6.79%), then 43 (9.35%), then 63 (13.4%), 60 (12.68%), 80 (16.91%), 59 (11.87%), 67 (13.43%), 74 (14.37%), 56 (11.86%), 55 (11.09%), 57 (11.26%), 55 (10.07%), 65 (12.05%). So while he has managed to stay on the ballot, he isn't coming close to making it, and I think he only has a few more years of eligibility left. Bill Mazeroski was a great-defense middle-infielder who eventually was voted in by the veterans committee, but he regularly got into the 25-40% vote totals before his time ran out, and Concepcion isn't even hitting that mark.

There are also a few intangibles in Ozzie's favor, that no doubt resonated with the HOF voters. His backflips likely didn't hurt him, plus he was host for TWIB (This Week in Baseball) for a few years after he retired. And there is the nickname, "The Wizard of Oz". Plus his ranking 87th on the The Sporting News' list of 100 Greatest Baseball Players (in 1999), his sometimes being hailed as the greatest defensive player ever, and his famous play in his rookie season off the bat of Jeff Burroughs where he reached up and grabbed a ball with his bare hand after it took a crazy bounce. Some or all of these are "extras" in his favor when voters for the HOF cast their ballots, and no such intangible points for Omar come to mind.

A comparison between Vizquel and older good-fielding shortstops who made it to the HOF has also been made. As I noted above, Aparicio has a "Similar batting score" that is quite high for both Ozzie and Omar. And the raw hitting numbers are comparable. But again, Aparicio had far more steals (506) and did so in an era of low SB numbers -- in fact, he led the league in SB nine years in a row (1956-1964)!! He took home 9 gold gloves so that is comparable to Omar, but he was an all-star 10 times, and received MVP consideration 10 times (vs. just once for Omar). So I don't think that comparing Vizquel to Aparicio is close really.

Others of this general type are Reese and Rizzuto. I'll consider Pee Wee Reese first. He has fairly similar offensive numbers, but a bit more HR -- 126, and he hit 10+ seven times compared to just once for Omar. He did have fewer SB (232), though again, the 40s and 50s were low SB years, so Reese led the league in 1952 with 30, and then came in second five other times. Again, he was an all-star 10 times, and received MVP votes an impressive 13 times. He was an important part of seven World Series teams, and hit a respectable .272 in those series combined. And although there were no gold-glove awards to be had back then, his careeer .962 FP is better than league average .958, and his Range Factor of 4.93 is better than league average 4.67. I'll grant that Omar is the better fielder here, but he isn't comparable as an all-around player for HOF consideration.

And then the case of Rizzuto is raised, if a bit reluctantly, since many would agree he should never have gotten into the HOF. He had a shorter career than the others being discussed here (3,000+ few at-bats) so for that reason it is harder to compare him. He did have an oustanding 1950 season, when he hit .324 with 125 runs to take home the AL MVP crown (after coming in second the year before). He was obviously well-thought of, as he was an all-star five times and received MVP votes in 8 different seasons. But I won't discuss him further, as I don't think he is a legit HOFer, and so don't see the point in comparing Vizquel with him in this context.

Another player to compare Omar with here, not mentioned in the SABR posting, is Nellie Fox. Although a 2B instead of a SS, he has a 861 Similar Batter Rating to Vizquel, and did indeed have some superficially similar offensive numbers. His BA is a bit higher though at .288, and not because of his era, as the league average for him was only .264. He didn't hit for power, with just 35 career HR. But he also didn't run much, as he had only 76 career SB -- so that is a major difference between Fox and Vizquel and the others. But he had a ridiculous ability to hit singles and not strike out much: he led the league in singles 8 times and led the league in AB/SO ratio 12 times! In fact, he never had more than 18 strikeouts in a season... now that is impressive! Fox was good defensively, but as the GG was introduced during his career, he only took home three of them. He had a .984 FP (at 2B, not SS) compared to .977 for the league, and a high 5.43 range factor compared with 4.89 for the league. So one can't dispute his defensive resume. And he was an all-star 12 times, and got MVP votes 10 times, including taking home the MVP award in 1959 when he led the White Sox to the World Series, where he then hit 9-24 (.375) in his lone post-season appearance (a losing effort). So here to, on the whole, I don't think Omar's resume compares well.

Although Omar had a fine 2006 season, .295 BA, 24 SB, 10 triples, 88 runs, playing in 153 games, at age 39 I assume he'll only play another year or two. If plays a lot more than that, padding his numbers and HOF resume, then I might change my mind. But for now my view is that Omar is likely not going to be elected to the Hall of Fame (unless perhaps through the veterans committee many years from now), and I don't think he should be elected either.

Yankees Lineup 1 to 9 - Best Ever?

Watching the game tonight... I must say that the Yankees lineup at this time is just about as good as it could be. Since they traded for Abreu, and have gotten Sheffield back from injury (thereby allowing Melky Cabrera and old-man Williams to serve as backups), they are solid 1-9. They don't have the huge combos that some lineups have had, like Ruth/Gehrig, Mantle/Maris, or even Ortiz/Ramirez, but they are better 1-9 than just about any lineup I can remember. It is only fair to compare with other DH-era AL lineups, but even if you factor out the pitcher in NL lineups, and older AL lineups, almost every team I can remember -- even on the best of the best champions -- had one or two weak spots. And yet, they could easily lose in the playoffs or the WS, because their starting pitching is questionable and Rivera is somewhat injured (available, but limited it sounds like).

Here are the season stats for the starting lineup in game 1 of the playoffs (BA, HR-RBI-R-SB):

Johnny Damon (.285, 24-80-115-25)
Derek Jeter (.343, 14-97-118-34)
Bobby Abreu (.297, 15-107-98-30) (combined Phil/NY stats)
Gary Sheffield (..298, 6-25-22-5) (only39 G, 151 AB)
Jason Giambi (.253, 37-113-92-2)
Alex Rodriguez (.290, 35-121-113-15)
Hideki Matsui (.302, 8-29-32-1) (only 51 G, 172 AB)
Jorge Posada (.277, 23-93-65-3)
Robinson Cano (.342, 15-78-62-5)

That is scary... and it would look all the better if you factor in full-season stats for Sheffield (in 2005 he hit .291, 34-123-104-10) and Matsui (in 2005 he hit .305, 23-116-108-2).

Congratulations to Trevor Hoffman

Congratulations to Trevor Hoffman, relief pitcher for the San Diego Padres, who today became the all-time leader in Saves with 479. Starting his big-league career in 1993, he has been a consistently great closer over his career, managing 37-53 saves 10 times, and posting an ERA below 3.00 every season except three.

This feat naturally raises the question of his Hall of Fame potential, and that of the player he just topped on the leaderboard, Lee Smith. In my early August posting on HOF prospects for current players, I said I thought Hoffman was a "near lock". Lee Smith isn't in, and hasn't come close yet -- he has gotten between 36-45% of the vote in each of the four years he has been eligible (75% is needed for induction). I think Lee Smith is a marginal candidate, who could very well make it someday, while Hoffman is nearly certain to make it -- though it might not be on his first year of eligibility.

You can see their career accomplishments at these two sites:
Baseball-Reference (through 2005): Lee Smith, Trevor Hoffman
Baseball-Reference: Lee Smith, Trevor Hoffman

A few important comparisons:
Lee Smith:
71-92 W-L
1289.1 IP
1251 Strikeouts
1133 hits allowed
486 walks
3.03 ERA
1.256 WHIP
13.5 seasons as primary closer
7-time all-star
9 teams (incl. two stints with the Cardinals)
Led League in Saves: 4 times, runner-up 4 times.
Best five years:
- 1991: 47 SV, 2.34 ERA
- 1983: 29 SV, 1.65 ERA (though somehow a 4-10 record?)
- 1990: 31 SV, 2.06 ERA (Red Sox and Cardinals combined)
- 1992: 43 SV, 3.12 ERA
- 1985: 33 SV, 3.04 ERA

Trevor Hoffman:
49-55 W-L
882.1 IP
963 Strikeouts
671 hits allowed
249 Walks
2.70 ERA
1.043 WHIP
12 seasons as primary closer
5-time all-star
2 teams (just 28 games in his rookie season for the Marlins)
Led League in Saves: 1 time, runner-up 5 times.
Best five years:
- 1998: 53 SV, 1.48 ERA
- 2006: 43 SV, 1.95 ERA (through 9/24, at age 38)
- 1996: 42 SV, 2.25 ERA
- 1999: 40 SV, 2.14 ERA
- 2004: 41 SV, 2.30 ERA

This makes for an interesting comparison. Smith bounced around, but did well just about everywhere, while Hoffman would be considered Mr. Padre if it weren't for someone named Gwynn.

Smith is ahead in all-star appearances, and significantly ahead in times leading the league in saves, though he did so in an era with fewer teams and noticeably lower SV totals in those years. Hoffman's stats in his best five years are much more impressive. His career ERA is better, and even when you relativize to the league ERA, his lifetime ERA+ is 146 compared to Smith's 132. Hoffman has a much better WHIP (Walks + Hits, per Innings Pitched, for the uninitiated) over his career. Both were good strikeout pitchers, with Hoffman being a bit stronger there too.

So, in the end, it won't surprise me to see Smith get elected someday. This could happen soon too, if there is a run on Closers getting in after Sutter finally (and deservedly) got the call in 2006 (and Eckersley in 2003). The line starts now with Goose Gossage, who earned 64.6% of the vote this year. It'll be tough for any relievers to make it in 2007, given that Ripken and Gwynn (and McGwire) will be first-time candidates. John Franco will be eligible in 2010 I think, and he ranks third all-time with 424 saves. With Smith struggling to get the votes, I doubt Franco will make it. As I said in my earlier post, Mariano Rivera (who is currently fourth in saves) is a lock, once he becomes eligible. I think Hoffman is not the given that Rivera is, but should have an easier time than Smith is having.

Prospects for Active Players to make HOF

Another annual Cooperstown induction ceremony is now behind us. Local sports columnist Bob Matthews wrote an interesting column on Sunday, Cooperstown awaits these 13 locks.

I agree with his 13 locks, and pretty much in the same order that he lists them. I might bump Pedro and Junior above Piazza in the order. Initially I wondered about Jeter as a "lock" already, but upon reflection I agree: assuming he gets there this year, he'll have had 10 seasons of 100+ runs, four 200+ hits, moderate power, good speed, good defense, plus he has provided plenty of team leadership and other intangibles. He rarely leads the league in any categories, but he is consistent great, and in the post-season too where he has hit .307 with 16 HR and 16 SB in 462 at-bats. And he isn't slowing down a bit, batting .354 (career high) as I write this. So yes, he is a lock at this point. I'm not sure if all of these guys will be first-ballot Hall-of-Famers, but I would argue they all should be even if they retired today.

I also agree that Vlad and Hoffman are near-locks. Vlad doesn't quite have the career numbers yet that Manny has. Although Hoffman has more lifetime saves, he hasn't been quite as dominating as Mariano. And remember too that Mariano has been lights-out in the postseason: 8-1 with 34 saves and a 0.81 ERA in 111.7 IP. Yikes.

Of the next tier, I think many of them will make it, just not on the first ballot (given the way that seems to work). So in that sense I consider them "locks", it just might take them a few years to be voted in. In this group I would list Craig Biggio and then Frank Thomas. I'm slightly less confident in the following (in this order): Chipper Jones, John Smoltz, Jim Thome. It helps that all three are still performing well, and so are likely to add more good numbers to their resumes before they are finished.

Unlike Bob, I think Schilling has a less than a 50% chance of making it. His career was very late to get going, and heroics not withstanding, he has only had a half-dozen truly good seasons. If he can get up closer to 250 wins, then I'd put him in. Then next is Jeff Kent, who has 340 HR and 1356 RBI while playing mostly at 2B. That is pretty good, so he might eventually get voted in. Todd Helton, even with a lifetime .333 average, is a big a question mark at this point. If he retired today, I'd say no, largely because his huge numbers are obviously inflated by the Coors effect. But if he can rebound from declining numbers this year and last, then he could rise up my list.

Mussina has never won 20 games, and likely never will. If he can get up to 275 career wins, then he is in the same class as Blyleven, John, Kaat, and others... and they are struggling to get in the Hall... so I predict he won't make it.

Bob gives Omar Vizquel 10-90 odds of making it... I wouldn't even go that high. He has 10 gold gloves and 357 SB, and likely won't play more than one or two more seasons, if that (hitting .302 so far this year though). He has only been an all-star three times. Compare that with Bill Mazeroski who was a middle-infielder and won 8 gold gloves and was an all-star 7 times, and it took the veterans committee to vote him in. And Vizquel of course doesn't compare with Ozzie Smith, who had 580 SB, 13 gold gloves and 15 all-star appearances.

I'd actually give Andruw Jones a much better chance than Vizquel. He already has 8 gold gloves in CF and is only 29 years old. He has power numbers and seems to have really found his stroke this year and last. And I'd rank Gary Sheffield over Helton, though not quite up there with Thome and Thomas. Carlos Delgado might rate higher than Helton for me as well.

And I agree that Tejada, Ortiz, Berkman, Soriano, and Pujols are "building strong cases for Cooperstown". And Bob notes about Pujols that "his first six seasons have been as impressive as anyone to ever play the game." It won't take too many more great years for him to be a lock as well... in fact, I'd wager that once he finishes his 10th full season (required for eligibility), he'll be lock right then and there.

And finally, I have no disagreements with Bob's list of "nice careers" but not Hall of Famers category. The ones that come the closest for me from that list are Jim Edmonds (.290 career average, 347 HR, 8 gold gloves), Bobby Abreu (.301, 198 HR, 261 SB, and still going strong at only age 32), and Billy Wagner (2.38 ERA, 306 SV, and 902 K in 679.3 IP).

I Could Be an ESPN Analyst

I could be an ESPN Analyst. I can write, I can talk, and I apparently have comparable knowledge of baseball to many ESPN baseball analysts. Tonight I took the 50-question ESPN Baseball quiz, and I scored a 41. The nine analysts whose results are given have scores that range between 31 and 45, so I fit there nicely. And the lineup of twelve current major leaguers who took the quiz, their scores range from 24 to 40. Fun quiz...

Tom Glavine: The last to win 300?

Tom Glavine is off to a fine start with the Mets this year. He is 11-2 with a 3.33 ERA, which is outstanding for anyone but particularly in light of his last three seasons when he seemed to be in decline. He celebrated his 40th birthday in March, and until now it wasn't clear that he'd make it to the 300-win milestone. But since he now has 286 wins (against 186 losses), I'll assume he will make it at this point. If he does, he'll join two other active pitchers in that club, Roger Clemens (341) and Greg Maddux (325), and be the 23rd all-time member. And nine of these pitchers joined in the 1980s or later.

But this then leads me to ask: Who might be next to accomplish it? The answer might be that Glavine will be the last. Now, I wouldn't bet much money on a bold claim like that. Forever is a very long time, and probably someone will get 300 career wins, at some point in the future. But we are quite possibly in for a long wait.

Many others have written about this topic in recent years, and the reasons for coming dearth of 300 winners are obvious: five-man rotations limit the number of games a starting pitcher plays, pitch count tracking and conservative coaches and trainers keep starters from going as long into games as they used to, and the development since the 1980s of ever-more-specialized bullpen roles make it easier for managers to yank even their aces if they begin to faulter in the middle innings.

So who are the likely candidates? Only two I think deserve really strong consideration at this point. Randy Johnson has a 271-142 lifetime record, and has had a superb career. Whether or not he gets 300, he is assured a spot in the Hall of Fame. But he will turn 43 by the end of this season, and while still able to pitch 30 games a year it seems, he is far from his former, totally-dominating self. So far this year is 8-6 with a 5.21 ERA. Let's say he wins another 8 this year, which would leave him 21 shy of the mark. Could he pitch another two seasons? Possibly.

The other I think is worth discussing is Pedro Martinez. He is currently 8th on the active career list in wins, owning an an oustanding 204-87 record. He is 7-3 with a 3.01 ERA so far in 2006, so if he gets another 8 wins this year he'll be at 212. He'll be 35 years old going into next season, so he should have several good seasons left in the tank. Although he has regularly started 29-33 games per season in his career, he has had some injuries, and generally seems a bit more fragile than some other longtime players. So I wonder how long he could go into his 40s, if at all. If he retired after the 2011 season, at nearly 40 years of age, he'd have to average nearly 18 wins a season to make 300. That doesn't seem likely, but not impossible.

What about Mike Mussina, who is 232-130 lifetime, and 8-3 with a 3.42 ERA so far in 2006? He is 37, and is not likely to win more than 16 games in a season ever again. Assuming he gets 8 more this year, he would probably need four more solid years to post 300 lifetime. Could happen I guess.

David Wells has 227 wins, but is 43 years old. Jamie Moyer has 210, and is 43 also. They are nearing retirement I assume.

Curt Schilling is still going strong at 9-2, 3.61 so far this year. He has 201 wins, but didn't start his career very well, and age 39 won't get near 300 I don't think. Ditto for Kenny Rogers who just noticed his 200th victory at age 41. And Andy Pettite is struggling this year, and with 178 wins at age 34 he seems a longshot to make it to 300.

It is an interesting game of "What If?" to consider John Smoltz here. He is now 39 and might have been well on his way to joining former teammates Maddux and Glavine, if not for spending the 2001-2004 seasons as a reliever. He was outstanding in that role, with save totals of 55, 45, and 44, and a 1.12 ERA in 2003. If he had only averaged 15 wins per season those four years, that would be another 60 to pad his career actual 181-133 lifetime record.

I won't speculate about the very young players whose names might one day surface in discussions of 300-win candidates. Few if any of them have even 100 wins yet, so I think it is a fair question to ask whether anyone, beyond Glavine and perhaps Johnson and Martinez, will ever join the elites already in the 300 club.

Thoughts anyone?

College Baseball Hall of Fame

I found out yesterday that there will soon be a College Baseball Hall of Fame. You can read about it at the website of the College Baseball Foundation. It will be located in Lubbock, Texas. I have several thoughts on this, so I thought I'd share:

1. In one sense, I'm surprised there isn't already such a hall of fame for College Baseball in the US. But seemingly there isn't: see this list of halls of fame from Wikipedia. Ones I certainly wasn't aware of include the halls for Gospel Music, international swimming, distance running, mountain biking, Canadian medicine, robots, and three -- yes three -- for professional wrestling. Given how popular it is in the US, I'm a bit surprised that College Basketball is not listed... unless I missed it. Is there a Hall of Fame for the NCAA Basketball? Or is its coverage in the general Basketball Hall of Fame the reason there isn't a separate one?

2. Then again, college baseball just isn't very popular in the US. It has a following to be sure, but it is very small compared to other college sports. And there is good reason for this. For some sports, the college level is arguably the highest level of achievement in that sport (in the US), because there isn't much of a professional league or whatnot. Then for men's Basketball and Football, the NBA and NFL rely on the college athletes as the training ground for their new players. Almost all players who are in the professional drafts come from the college teams (a bit less so lately for the NBA, given the rise of European basketball).

But baseball has a well-developed and longstanding minor-league system. Most players who are rookies on the major league teams come from the minor league teams. Yes, a few come straight from college, and more go from college to some level of the minors and then eventually the majors. But many others go from High School straight to the minors, bypassing college. This has to be the number one reason that American baseball fans largely don't follow the college game.

3. Given this, I think that CBF Chairman/CEO John Askins is overstating things a bit when he says:

"Just like Canton and Cooperstown, sports fans around the nation will begin to turn their attention to Lubbock every summer... This first-ever class of inductees will give our event a unique place in the history of sports. The national television exposure on the Fox networks will also showcase to the nation just how vibrant and growing an area the South Plains really is."

We'll see. That might be a bit optimistic. After the first year, and maybe one or two more, I predict most Americans, including most baseball fans, won't pay much attention.

4. The CBF link above also includes this paragraph:

The list of legendary former players include Dave Magadan of Alabama, Bob Horner of Arizona State, Mickey Sullivan of Baylor, Jackie Jensen of California, Tim Wallach of Cal State Fullerton, Derek Tatsuno of Hawai’i, Pete Incaviglia and Robin Ventura of Oklahoma State, Billy Swift of Maine, Neal Heaton of Miami, Barry Larkin of Michigan, Paul Molitor and Dave Winfield of Minnesota, Will Clark of Mississippi State, B. J. Surhoff of North Carolina, Steve Arlin of Ohio State, Brooks Kieschnick and Keith Moreland of Texas, Fred Lynn of USC, John Olerud of Washington State and Joe Carter and Phil Stephenson of Wichita State.

Of course I realize the context for this is their performance in College Baseball. Still, I have trouble seeing the word "legendary" applied to some of these players. Many of these guys were great players in the pros, a few are even enshrined at Cooperstown already. But then there are the other "legends" here like Magadan, Sullivan, Heaton, Arlin, Kieschnick, and Stephenson. I know, the context. I just never thought I'd see the word "legendary" applied to Neal Heaton. (Part of me is glad to see Pete Incaviglia's name in print again... though I don't know why exactly.)

The list of pre-1947 candidates, on the other hand, does include at least one true "legend" of our American culture: Lou Gehrig. Christy Mathewson was one of the top 10 pro pitchers of all-time, so he too is a "legend" of sorts. And at least Frankie Frisch (another Cooperstown HOFer) had a nickname named after his college, "The Fordham Flash."

5. I won't give you my votes for who should go in during this first year, mostly because I don't know enough about their college years -- and I assume that should be the main factor on who is most deserving of the honor. I'll be interested to see who gets in... for this first year at least.

Fantasy Baseball 2006

It is a general rule in Fantasy and Rotisserie sports leagues that no one cares about your team except you. I'm an exception to this, in that I do like to see other people's teams now and then, to analyze the mix and what they spent in auction drafts and so on. So in case anyone seeing this blog is the same, here is the team I drafted this past weekend. This is for a very competitive 11-team standard Roto 5x5 league (BA, OBP, HR, RBI, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, SO, SV). Players with an asterisk were my five keepers from last year (allowed up to 7 each year, at +5 last year's salary). Must have players at these positions, with any mix of SP/RP allowed. All players play (no "bench"). We have a total of $260 fake $ to spend in the auction... and I managed to spend all of it (always a goal of course).

Pos	Name	$$$
C	Mike Piazza	8
C	Kenji Johjima	4
1B	Dan Johnson *	6
2B	Ian Kinsler	3
3B	Eric Chavez	12
SS	Jimmy Rollins	14
UT	Bobby Crosby	3
UT	Ryan Zimmerman	1
OF	Miguel Cabrera (3B) *	20
OF	Lance Berkman (1B) *	22
OF	Cliff Floyd	8
OF	Willy Taveras *	6
OF	Matt Murton	1
OF	Joey Gathright	1
SP	Dontrelle Willis *	13
SP	Rich Harden	28
SP	Mark Prior	14
SP	Noah Lowry	10
SP	Ervin Santana	2
SP	Daniel Cabrera	1
RP	Brad Lidge	30
RP	Francisco Rodriguez	29
RP	Huston Street	24

What jumps out at you, naturally, is the insanely good bullpen. After already having Lidge and K-Rod, I bid $24 on Street and then got stuck with him as everyone else bailed. That tied my hands from a budgetary standpoint for many rounds to come, so it was definitely a mistake. Other than that, I think I drafted OK. I don't have enough power though: Cabrera, Berkman, Floyd, and Chavez are all legit 30+ HR guys, but only Cabrera is a sure thing. Several others could hit 10-25, but I don't have any big boppers. I think I have enough speed with Rollins and Taveras, and a few others who'll get double-digit, and esp. if Gathright gets enough playing time. My starting staff is weak: Dontrelle was a great keeper, and Harden if healthy should be great (though he was expensive). As always, Prior is a big question mark. The others I am hopeful on, but it doesn't add up to a lot of confidence. At least those relievers will help my ERA and WHIP, besides dominating the league in saves.

Steals in this draft, potential keepers for next year at +5 salary? Besides Johnson, Cabrera, and Willis (keepers from last year), I like Johjima for $4, Kinsler for $3, Crosby for $3, Zimmerman for $1, Murton for $1, and maybe even D. Cabrera for $1 (he now has Leo Mazonne as his pitching coach!). Given their ages, I'm sure some of these will be flops. But if only a few of them have great years, then they are steals for next year.

Let the seasons begin!