Comments on Newsday's Top 100 Greats and Legends List

Newsday recently posted a piece titled: Newsday's 100: The Super Elite Hall of Fame. The idea was to grant that the MLB Hall of Fame's criteria for choosing players has not been consistent over the years (a case made by Bill James and many other writers before), so what would a list of only the truly cream of the crop look like? They decided to go for a list of just the very best 100 "greats and legends", with another 18 players listed who are not eligible for the Hall of Fame (Pete Rose and Joe Jackson plus players who have retired recently or are still active).

Since I love projects like this, I of course would like to comment on their selections. I don't have comments on the players included from the Negro Leagues, as I just don't know enough about them to have an opinion one way or the other. That said...

Players that I question being in the top 100:

• Lou Brock -- Borderline. Lots of steals, and performed great in three World Series, but also struck out a lot, had a low OBP, and was a rather poor fielder considering his speed.
• Buck Ewing -- A great 19th century catcher, but not one of the greats of all-time. In fact, he only played 100+ games in a season four times. A few years ago Bill James ranked him 17th amongst catchers.
• Bill Dickey, Carlton Fisk, Gabby Hartnett -- Borderline. They are three of the top-10 catchers of all time, so the question then becomes how many catchers do you want in your top-100 "greats" list? I say Cochrane and Campanella are in, and maybe Dickey, Fisk, and Hartnett are too, but I'm open to arguments against them here as well. And if these guys are in, why not Gary Carter? Where do you draw the line?
• Lary Doby -- A good player, but not a great one. His career numbers of .283, 253 HR, and 970 RBI don't merit being in this top 100 list. And no, he didn't lose much MLB time to the Negro Leagues early in his career, since he was only 24 when he played his first full season for the Indians.
• Jim Galvin -- No way. He lost almost as many games as he won. Although Gentile listed Galvin way to low in his top 1,000 listing, he doesn't deserve to be in a top-100 list either.
• Ozzie Smith -- Borderline. Not sure someone who was as two-dimensional as Ozzie should be in a top-100 list of "greats". Superior defense at SS, and lots of SB too, but is that enough?
• King Kelly -- One of the first 19th century stars who split time between OF and C, but I don't think he is a top-100 all-time great. He led the league in batting twice, and runs scored three times, adn was usually amongst the leaders in other categories, but that isnt' enough for me here.
• Bob Lemon -- Borderline. Yes, he had seven 20-win seasons in a span of 10 years. But he only won 207 in his career, so I question him being called a "great".
• Red Ruffing -- Definitely not a top-100 "great". He pitched for powerful Yankees clubs, so that helped him win 20 games twice and 21 games twice. But a lifetime 273-225 record, and a 3.80 ERA, doesn't qualify him for this list.
• George Sisler and Bill Terry -- Their career batting averages look worthy, but you have to consider the eras in which they played. Bill James has done that, and a few years ranked Sisler as only the 24th best 1B of all-time, and Terry as the 26th best. So that would keep them far outside of a top-100 "greats" list.
• Pie Traynor -- Definitely not. Similar to Sisler and Terry, you have to consider Traynor's .320 average relative to his era. Again, Bill James a few years ago ranked Traynor as the 15th best 3B of all time, behind the likes of Darrell Evans, Sal Bando, Ken Boyer, and Graig Nettles -- and none of these are all-time "greats".
• John Ward -- As with Galvin, I recently noted that Gentile ranked Ward a bit too low. But I also don't think he is a top-100 guy either.
• Dave Winfield -- Borderline. My main problem with including Winfield is that Newsday did also include Eddie Murray. I don't see how that makes sense.
• Early Wynn -- Definitely not. He held on a long time to get that 300th win. But a lifetime 300-244 record, and a 3.54 ERA (compared with a league ERA of 3.77) doesn't make him an all-time "great". I'd go with Jenkins, Niekro, Perry, and others before Wynn.

Here are ones Newsday considered close that I might prefer over some of the above:

• Eddie Murray -- See my comments on Winfield.
• Al Simmons -- He had 12 seasons of 100+ RBI, including his first 11 seasons. And some of those were really high totals: 151, 157, 165. True his .334 average is like Terry and Sisler and must be considered in light of his era, but I think Simmons did more than they did to earn a spot in a top 100 list.
• Paul Waner -- Similarly, I think Paul Waner probably belongs in the top 100 list. He had nine seasons of 100+ runs and while not a HR hitter, did hit 605 doubles and 191 triples. I much prefer Simmons and Waner to Sisler, Terry, and Traynor.
• Some pitchers from Newsday's "near-miss" list that I prefer over Galvin, Wynn, and Ruffing are Ed Walsh, Robin Roberts, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Fergie Jenkins.

Next, here is a list without commentary of some players who I think are at least as deserving, if not more so, of being included on the "near'miss" list, and perhaps a few of these would properly be considered top-100 "greats" (in alphabetical order):

• Frank Baker
• John Clarkson
• Sam Crawford
• Ed Delahanty
• Dennis Eckersley
• Rollie Fingers
• Johnny Mize
• Kid Nichols
• Phil Niekro
• Gaylord Perry
• Arky Vaughn

I particularly think that Nichols belongs in the top 100 way ahead of Galvin, and that Delahanty and Crawford likely should have been in the list of top-100 "greats". Bill James makes a pretty good case for Vaughn as the second-best SS of all-time, so perhaps he should be as well. The others I'm just suggesting were ommissions from the "near-miss" listing that Newsday provided.

As for current players, a few names that probably also should be mentioned in this discussion are Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Roberto Alomar, Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, and Craig Biggio.

For more discussion like this, see my recent four posts on Derek Gentile's fun book Baseball's Best 1,000: Rankings of the Skills, the Achievements, and the Performance of the Greatest Players of All Time -- the posts are here (comments on players 1-50), here (comments on players 51-100), here (comments on players 101-300), and here (comments on players 301-1000).

Placido Polanco Chokes Up All The Way

A bit of baseball humor... see this doctored-photo and headline from the Onion: Placido Polanco Chokes Up All the Way.

Comments on Baseball's Best 1,000 (Part 4)

I recently picked up the 2008 edition of Derek Gentile's fun book Baseball's Best 1,000: Rankings of the Skills, the Achievements, and the Performance of the Greatest Players of All Time. I've enjoyed reading this book, and I'm doing a series of blog posts where I comment on his selections. The first post is here (comments on players 1-50), the second is here (comments on players 51-100), and the third is here (comments on players 101-300). I recommend you read these first.

In this final post, I'll give comments on some players that I think he ranks significantly too high or too low, covering players listed from 301-1000. In the last post in this series I noted that Gentile consistently ranks good pitchers (boths starters and relievers) in the 101-300 range too low. This continued for the rest of the listing. The other consistent pattern I noted that I disagree with his Gentile's relatively high ranking of poor-hitting, longtime catchers. I won't comment on these below, but there were a couple dozen catchers who are ranked higher than I would. It is one thing to rank Bob Boone 324th and Jim Sundberg 348th, as they won loads of Gold Glove awards. No, I am talking about players like Scioscia (410), Rick Dempsey (469), Jerry Grote (498), and many, many more who I think are ranked too high.

Now for my comments on players ranked 301-1000:

• 314. Rafael Palmeiro -- His numbers (.288, 585 HR, 3020 hits, 1835 RBI), even discounted a bit relative to his era, I think justify a higher ranking. I guess if you discount them further because of the cloud of steroid use, then that would lower his spot in the list.
• 322. Chipper Jones -- Even before his impressive 2008 season, I think Chipper should be rated higher than this! He's an MVP, he's close to 400 HR, and has a career average over .300.
• 323. Joe Carter -- Too low. Gentile notes that he is one of only nine players to have had 100+ RBI in ten seasons. His 396 HR, 1445 RBI, and 231 SB I think justify ranking him closer to the likes of Rice, Murphy, and Dawson than down here below 300.
• 326. Jim Bottomley -- One can certainly argue that he is not deserving of being in the HOF. His .310 average isnt' that impressive compared with a .293 league average over his career. But I think this ranking is a bit low for someone who had 120+ RBI in five consecutive seasons and is clearly better than many listed ahead of him.
• 330. Bruce Sutter -- As I said earlier, Gentile seems to rate all of the dominant closers lower than I would.
• 332. Chuck Klein -- See Jim Bottomley and magnify my comments. He won the MVP in 1932, was runner up the year before, and was runner-up in 1933, losing to Carl Hubbell even though he took home Triple Crown honors. A lifetime .320 hitter (though relative to league average of .293), he led the league in HR four out of five years from 1929-1933, missing only in 1930 when he came in second while hitting an amazing 59 doubles. True, his numbers need to be considered in light of his era, but even so... he shouldn't be this low.
• 336. John Montgomery Ward -- A pretty unique career, I think it warrants a higher ranking. A 19th century star, Ward started out as a pitcher going 164-102 from 1878-1884, including a 47-19 record in 1879. When not pitching he'd play other positions, most often the OF, as he could hit and run well. He continued until 1894 as a SS/2B, and stole 111 bases in 1887 and 88 in 1892.
• 349. Edgar Martinez -- Granted, he mostly was a DH. Lifetime numbers of .312, 309 HR, 1261 RBI, 1219 Runs, 7 times an all-star and two batting titles... make me think he should be higher than this.
• 356. Harold Baines -- Similar arguement to Martinez: granted a lot of time spent as a DH, but his .289, 384 HR, 1628 RBI, 2866 hits are hard to argue with.
• 357. Jose Canseco -- Yet another hitter who spent a lot of time as a DH (though Jose played more games in the OF). Steroid use (and his attitude about it!) doesn't earn him any popularity, but he did have 462 HR, 1407 RBI, 200 SB, and was the first ever 40/40 club member in his 1988 MVP season. Should he really be nearly 100 spots lower than Andre Thornton? Or 50 spots below Rick Monday? I don't think so.
• 360. Don Baylor -- Again, a DH. He had 338 HR, 1276 RBI, and even 285 SB (often forgotten). Should be higher than this.
• 386. Al Spalding -- Hard to rank him, because he pitched in the 1870s and had a short career. But considering where Koufax and Dean are ranked, I think Spalding should be higher. Afterall, he had an incredible 253-65 record for a .796 winning percentage. And of course that is from just 6 full seasons in which he led the league in wins every year with totals of 19, 38, 41, 52, 55, and 47. He won the ERA title twice, and was second three times.
• 396. Catfish Hunter -- A lifetime record of 224-166 and a 3.26 ERA, with five consecutive 20+ win seasons. One Cy Young Award and a 10-2 record in the postseason add to his resume, one that I think earns him a higher ranking than nearly 400th! I mean, is he really worse than Dave Cash (390) and only one better than Carney Lansford (397)?
• 402. Tom Glavine -- I think Glavine should be even higher than Catfish, given his two Cy Young Awards and six-times appearing in the top 3 in the voting. He now is a 300 game winner and a 10-time all-star. How is he ranked this low, a mere three spots ahead of Don Buford? Gimme a break!
• 406. Andres Gallaraga -- Kinda similar to the DHs I mentioned earlier, The Big Cat struck out a lot but also hit .288 with 399 HR, 1425 RBI over his career, and led his league in BA once, HR once, RBI twice, and took home two Gold Gloves. He is really only two spots better than Toby Harrah, and six ahead of Doug DeCinces?
• 419. Curt Schilling -- I'm not yet an advocate of him for the HOF, but I think this is a bit low.
• 458. Juan Gonzalez -- How is a two-time MVP, who led his league in HR in two *other* seasons, ranked this low? Career numbers include .295, 434 HR, 1404 RBI. I have one question for Mr. Gentile: How can you rank Gonzalez this low, but Albert Belle all the way up at 148? Shouldn't they be much closer to each other?
• 474. Bill Buckner -- Compare him with Mark Grace. Why is Grace ranked at 212, and Buckner all the way down at 474?
• 480. Tommy John -- I think 288 career wins deserves a higher spot than this.
• 486. Jim Kaat -- Ditto, as Kaat won 283 games. I agree John and Kaat should be near each other in an all-time ranking like this, but they should both be higher. Kaat has the added distinction of winning an amazing 16 Gold Glove awards.
• 500. Lee Smith -- I'm not sure where I'd rank Lee Smith, as I don't consider him in the class of Gossage, Fingers, Sutter and a few others. And he is no longer the all-time saves leader. But again, Gentile ranks too many great closers too low, so I'd likely have him higher than this.
• 501. Mariano Rivera -- And speaking of relievers, Mo must be higher than this! Mariano is arguably the greatest reliever of all time.
• 507. Larry Walker -- A great hitter (.313, 383 HR, 1311 RBI, 230 SB) and a great fielder (7 Gold Gloves), Walker should be much higher than this. He won an MVP in 1997.
• 513. Rollie Fingers -- I don't get this at all. How is Fingers this low? And how is he this far below Gossage and Sutter, and then ranked below even Lee Smith? Look at his numbers relative to the 70s and early 80s!
• Roy Smalley (525), Rick Burleseon (530), Bill Doran (532) -- There are lots of players I've been skipping over (most of all light-hitting catchers) that I could have commented on that I think are too high relative to others near them in the list. Here are three such middle-infielders -- are these guys really this close to Walker and Fingers? Are they better than fellow middle-infielder Jeff Kent (534)? No way.
• 539. Dan Quisenberry -- My favorite pitcher of all time should be higher than this, though I agree he should appear after the top guys (Gossage, Fingers, Rivera, and Sutter).
• 555. Frank McCormick -- an MVP and nine-time All-Star should be higher than Robby Thompson (551), whose .257, 119 HR, 458 RBI, 1187 Hits are not very impressive.
• 557. Jake Beckley -- He had 2,930 hits, batted .308, and stole 315 bases. Most of all, he had 234 triples (fourth all-time). He should be higher than this.
• 572. Tom Tresh -- Yes, he won a Gold Glove and ROY. But would he be this high if he hadn't been on the Yankees for most of his short career? I doubt it -- this is too high for a career.245 hitter with only 153 HR and 530 RBI. I mean, is he really better than Bob Meusel (598), another Yankee, who hit .309 with 156 HR, 1067 RBI, and 142 SB? No.
• 608. Omar Vizquel -- I'm not an advocate for Vizquel for the HOF. And I'm not sure where I'd put him in a top 1000 list like this. But wherever that is, he should be a good deal higher than Mark Belanger (600). Both are most known for being great defensive shortstops. But Omar has been an all-star 3 times and has 11 gold gloves, while Belanger was an all-star only once and won 8 gold gloves. Belanger had some speed, totaling 167 SB for his career, but that is far fewer than Vizquel's 384. But most of all, Belanger had a pitiful .228 lifetime average (plus an even worse .183 in 10 postseason series), and only had three seasons batting over .250. Vizquel is no slugger, but at least he has batted .273 over his career, and managed to come in sixth in the 1999 race with a .333 mark. Surely Omar should be way ahead of Belanger on an all-time list.
• 617. Ben Oglivie -- I'm not going to argue he should be higher. I just wanted to again note the insanity of ranking Andre Thornton at 260. Was Thornton really that much better than Oglivie?
• 672. Addie Joss -- Another dominating pitcher who had a short career (died of meningitis). He had a 1.89 ERA compared with a league ERA of 2.68, leading the league twice. He won 20+ games four times, and ended up with a 160-97 record which is a .623 winning percentage. And as Gentile notes, Joss completed an amazing 234 of his 260 starts. Its always hard to rank players whose careers were cut short, but I think Joss should be higer than this.
• 684. John Smoltz -- Definitely too low. He won the Cy Young Award in 1996 when he went 24-8 with 276 strikeouts. He has been an all-star 8 times. But like Eckersley, Smoltz has managed to be successful at the highest level as both a starter and a reliever. From 2002-04 he had SV totals fo 55, 45, and 44. And in the second of those seasons he had an incredible 1.12 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. He should be far higher than this.
• 737. Pud Galvin -- A Hall-of-Famer with a lifetime record of 364-310: not a great percentage (.540), but still, 364 wins is 364 wins. His ERA of 2.86 is also only a little better than the league average during his time period (3.07). Its not easy to rank someone who retired in 1892, but he completed a mind-boggling 646 of his 689 career starts -- so I'd rank him higher than this.
• 779. Steve Finley -- Gentile's writeup on Finley is confusing, as he says that he has had over 24 HR in a season three times. Leaving aside the odd "over 24" standard, he has actually had six such seasons, including totals of 30, 34, 35, and 36. In his career Finley had 304 HR and 320 SB, quietly joining the rare 300/300 club. Although only an All-Star twice, he did grab five gold-gloves in the outfield, so I think he should be ranked a lot higher than this.
• 803. Chief Bender -- A 212-127 record is a .625 win rate. Although a borderline HOFer, I think he clearly deserves to be ranked higher than this.
• 858. David Cone -- The success of his first full season (1988), in which he went 20-3 with a 2.22 ERA, was never repeated. He won the Cy Young Award in the strike-shortened 1994 season, going 16-5 with a 2.94 ERA (a year when the League ERA was 5.00). His career record of 194-126 equates to a .606 winning percentage. I think this five-time all-star should be ranked higher than this, especialy when you consider Bret Saberhagen was ranked 654th and Orel Hershiser was ranked 613th.
• 864. Matt Williams -- 378 HR, 1218 RBI, 5-time All-Star, and 4 Gold Gloves at 3B mean Williams should be a lot higher than this.
• 891. Jesse Tannehill -- He had a career 197-116 record, which is a .629 winning percentage. He won 20+ games six times. Not a HOFer, but should be higher ranked than this I think.
• 905. Mike Mussina -- Even through the 2006 season I'd argue Mussina should be higher than this. But given his strong 2008 thus far, he is building his HOF resume. As of this writing he is 263-150 lifetime, which is a .637 winning percentage. He's never won 20 games in a season, and has never won a Cy Young Award (he has been in the top six in voting 8 times). But he is a five-time all-star and has won six Gold Gloves too. He should be several hundred spots higher than this -- I mean, Schilling is 419th, and I consider Mussina to be a better HOF candidate than Schilling.
• 934. David Kingman -- Granted, he had a low .236 average and his massive swing led to many strikeouts. But 442 HR (twice led league, and four times runner-up) and 1210 RBI deserve a higher ranking than this.
• 947. Ichiro Suzuki -- For some reason Gentile didn't update this entry after the 2004 season, so presumably if he had Ichiro would be ranked higher. By now he has had 200+ hits in all seven of his seasons (though he might not in 2008). He has a .331 average and 306 SB. And in his first seven seasons in the majors he has been both an all-star and gold-glover. Even if he quit today, I would rank him in the top 500 at least.
• Jeff Reardon (964) and John Franco (973) are again instances of Gentile's low ranking of good relievers. And he doesn't include Trevor Hoffman in the top 1,000 at all, though presumably he would at this point since Hoffman is now the all-time saves leader.
• 1000. Rich Dauer -- In case you were curious, this is who Gentile chose to round out his massive project. As a .257 hitter, with 43 HR, 372 RBI, 984 H, and only 6 SB, I would think there are more deserving players to make the list even in this last spot.

I have very much enjoyed reading and critiquing Gentile's ranking. Even with all the criticisms I have made, I obviously respect the project he undertook and the amount of time he must have spent researching it. For baseball fans like myself, I recommend his book as a fun read... let the debates continue!

Comments on Baseball's Best 1,000 (Part 3)

I recently picked up the 2008 edition of Derek Gentile's fun book Baseball's Best 1,000: Rankings of the Skills, the Achievements, and the Performance of the Greatest Players of All Time. I've enjoyed reading this book, and I'm doing a series of blog posts where I comment on his selections. The first post is here (comments on players 1-50), and the second is here (comments on players 51-100). I recommend you read these first.

In this post I'll remark on some of the selections that Gentile makes for players ranked 101-300. Unlike my first two posts, I won't list all of the players -- just the ones that I think are either notably too high, too low, or that I am particularly pleased are listed where they are.

But first, I want to make one general remark that became evident to me in reading through this part of his rankings. Gentile seems to rate pitchers -- both starters and relievers -- a bit lower than I would relative to everyday players. This will get brought to light somewhat in my comments below.

And now, some comments on the players rated 101-300:

• 109. Nolan Ryan -- Really this low? I know that most fans consider Ryan to highly: he was a lot of fun to watch, but his lifetime W-L% wasn't so great (even relative to the poor teams he was often on). For instance, TSN a few years back ranked him 41st all-time (too high in my view). But I think 109 is a bit low.
• 114. Pie Traynor -- Several decades ago, he was talked about as the greatest 3B of all-time. That was an exaggeration then, I think 114 overall is still too high now.
• 122. Alex Rodriguez -- Really below Traynor? And below Bobby Doerr (117) and Dick Allen (118)? And only one spot ahead of Don Mattingly at #123? No, I think A-Rod deserves to be at or above 100 already, and of course if he keeps playing at a high level he could easily crack the top 20 or even top 10 before he is done.
• 129. Reggie Smith -- I like him, and he surely is underrated today, but this is a bit high I think. Consider that he is above fellow outfielders Dale Murphy (138), Dave Winfield (140), Andre Dawson (143), and Kirby Puckett (146).
• 140. Dave Winfield -- I don't see how he is below the aforementioned Mattingly, Smith, Murphy. I mean, over 3,000 hits, 465 HR, 1,833 RBI, 12 All-Star teams, and 7 Gold Gloves? Should be much closer to the top 100, if not in it (TSN ranked him 94th all-time in 1998). I consider Winfield to have been justly selected as a Hall-of-Famer, and those other guys are rightly excluded.
• 146. Kirby Puckett -- Below Will Clark at 145? And below fellow Minnesota favorite Tony Oliva at 142? I don't see it. And neither would Bill James, who a few years ago ranked Puckett 98th all-time. And the somewhat popularity-tilted TSN ranked him 86th all-time.
• 156. Roberto Alomar -- his personality not withstanding, is Roberto really 50 spots lower than Barry Larkin (106)? If anything Alomar's lifetime numbers are better, and he was a 12-time All-Star with 10 Gold Gloves. Indeed, a few years ago Bill James rated Alomar the 80th player of all-time, and Larkin below him at 93rd. Surely a snub at this spot in the list.
• 158. Phil Niekro -- This seems a bit low, esp. compared with Ted Lyons (147). Oh, and by-the-way, his brother Joe and his 221 wins don't make the list at all (one of many victims of Gentile's stronger preference for everyday players than pitchers).
• 166. Darrell Evans -- I'm pleased to see him this high -- a player underrated by most fans.
• 167. Craig Biggio -- A major snub here. His position versatility, his long career, his high-OBP, 3,000 hits, and on and on... all warrants a higher slot. Who is next at 168? Sal Bando. Biggio is really only spot ahead of Sal? Come on. And don't let Bill James see this ranking for Biggio: a few years ago he ranked Biggio the 35th best player of all time (I wouldn't go quite that far).
• 173. Gaylord Perry -- see my comments for Niekro and magnify. TSN ranked him 97th all-time in 1998.
• 176. Willie Randolph -- too high! Just a few spots below Tony Lazzeri? And consider again the injustice of Biggio being at 167 if Randolph is here at 176!
• 178. Ivan Rodriguez -- a bit low, compared with Piazza at 89th place. Still playing, so hopefully he'd climb up this list by the time he retires.
• 181. Pedro Martinez -- definitely too low. He is still playing, but even if he retired today, he was so dominant for a few years, he should be higher based on that alone. Compare with others who were dominant for a short period: Sandy Koufax (47), Dizzy Dean (91), Big Ed Walsh (135). Or even Jim Palmer at 86th place, who played longer than those others but not as long as other stars. Given these ratings, Pedro should be close to or in the top 100.
• 183. Dave Parker -- Shouldn't he be up higher with the likes of Murphy, Dawson, and Rice? And how is Wally Berger (182) a slot ahead of Parker?
• 184. Manny Ramirez -- his numbers, without any talk of steroids, mean he deserves to be higher already.
• 185. Max Carey -- Led the league in SB 10 times, and was arguably the best centerfielder of his era. I think he should be higher than this.
• 187. Gene Tenace -- Wow. Top 1,000 surely. But this high? No way. Derek Jeter is #186, and Tenace comes right behind him? Tenace's career numbers are .241, 674 RBI, and 1076 hits. Um, OK. He is this close behind Pedro, Manny, and others I've complained about above? No way. Or compare Tenace with Joe Torre who is below him at 190 -- they are both C-1B-3B even, and surely Torre rates higher! 201 HRs, lots of walks, catching sometimes, and post-season heroics are all nice plusses, but this is way to high.
• 197. Tommy Leach -- I'm glad to see him crack the top-200. Good.
• 208. Phil Rizzuto -- I'm glad to see him this low. He shouldn't have been elected to the Hall of Fame.
• 209. Jesse Burkett -- too low for sure. A lifetime .338 hitter, against a league batting average during his tenure of .280. Lifetime OBP was .415, he scored 1,720 runs, stole 389 bases, and was only 150 hits shy of 3,000. He won three batting titles, including two seasons over .400. Compared with other old-timers, Jesse should be higher than this.
• 211. Hoyt Wilhelm -- The first reliever elected to the Hall of Fame, I think he should be higher than this. He started during parts of several seasons, and the one season he was a full-time SP he went 15-11 and led the AL in ERA with a 2.19 mark. As a reliever he kept his ERA below 2.00 six times! Interestingly, he never actually led his league in saves. But still, he racked up 227 of them before the statistic became a household word (well, in baseball fan households anyway).
• 232. Dennis Eckersley -- Appropriate that I complain about Eck's placement right after Wilhelm's. He too should be higher. 197 career wins and 390 career saves, and some of the most lights-out seasons ever, mean he should be ranked 150th or higher. TSN ranked him 98th all-time in 1998.
• 241. Sammy Sosa -- For some reason, the entry on Sosa hasn't been updated since after the 2003 season, so perhaps Gentile would re-evaluate Sammy's spot in the list now that he has 609 career HR. Even with the steroid suspicions, I think he should be a bit higher.
• 242. Wee Willie Keeler -- Ouch. Similar to my comments on Jesse Burkett, but even more so given he places Keeler 33 spots lower. He had a .341 average compared with a .280 league average during his time period. He didn't walk much, but he had 2,932 hits, scored 1,719 runs, and stole 495 bases. Two batting titles, including .424 in 1897.
• 245. Gary Sheffield -- See Manny Ramirez. Should be lower than Manny, but they both should be higher than Gentile lists them. Sheffield is still playing, so will likely end up with about a .290 average, 500+ HR, 1,700+ RBI, 250+ SB, and close to 3,000 hits. Obviously at that point he'll be higher than 245th, but I think he should be already.
• 249. Eddie Plank -- um, what? A 326-197 record for a .627 winning percentage. A lifetime 2.35 ERA (against a league average 2.87). A lifetime WHIP of 1.12. He completed 410 of his 529 starts. His postseason record was a hard-luck 2-5, given he posted a 1.32 ERA! Granted he's not in the class of Johnson, Alexander, and Mathewson, but he's in the next rung for his era -- and should be far higher than 249th all-time. TSN a few years ago ranked Plank 68th overall -- perhaps a bit too high, but closer to the mark than 249th.
• 253. Vada Pinson -- Like Darrell Evans, an oft-forgotten and underrated player. I'm glad to see him at least this high, but I think he perhaps deserves better: .286, 2,757 hits, 256 HR, 1366 Runs, and 305 SB.
• 254. Goose Gossage -- a victim of Gentile's generally low ranking of dominant closers. I'd rate each of the great ones higher than he does.
• 260. Andre Thornton -- Wow... definitely too high. His numbers: .254, 253 HR, 895 RBI, 792 Runs, 1,342 hits. And he played parts of 15 seasons. If he had only played 10, then maybe. But he played a long while, and only had 30+ HR three times. And its not like he was a catcher or middle infielder with power -- he split his time between 1B and DH! He was only an All-Star twice, and never led the league in any important categories. There is no way he should be this high in the rankings. I won't list all the guys that should be higher than Thornton but aren't -- there are too many.
• 262. Dwight Evans -- But I gotta list this one. See, this is what I mean. How is Thornton higher than Evans, or even anywhere close to him in the list? Dwight's numbers: .272, 385 HR, 2,446 hits, 1,384 RBI, 1,470 Runs, 8 Gold Gloves in the OF. Even leaving aside the comparison with Thornton, Evans should be up closer to Murphy, Dawson, Rice, and similar others, not down in this mid-200s range.
• 269. Bert Blyleven and 271. Early Wynn. -- Again, not enough credit is being given to starting pitchers here. Wynn was ranked 100th by TSN in 1998.
• 274. Randy Johnson -- Speaking of which, holy-cow man. The dominating Randy Johnson only comes in at 274th? He has led the league in strikeouts nine times, and is second all-time. He led the league in ERA four times. He won 20 games or more 3 times, and won 19 games 3 times. A ten-time All-Star, and most of all a five-time Cy Young Award winner? He should be in the top-100 at this point. What the heck?
• 290. Old Hoss Radbourn -- It is admittedly tough to rank the early pitchers. Radbourn played from 1880-1891, and he had two mind-boggling seasons in particular. In 1883 he went 48-25, and then in 1884 he agreed to pitch most of the second half of the season and went 59-12 (with a 1.38 ERA). He is often described as having gotten burned out after that, though he managed to win 20+ in five more seasons and end up with a 309-195 record. I gotta rank him higher than 290th... I mean, Gentile has Jay Bell ranked 289th!
• 292. Ralph Kiner -- Really? Someone who dominated his time, winning seven consecutive HR titles? He ended up hitting .279, with 369 HR, and .398 OBP. And that puts him just one spot ahead of Tony Fernandez (293), and again, well behind Andre Thornton? And TSN ranked him 90th all-time, perhaps a bit high, but closer to the mark than this 292nd appearance.

Stay tuned for the next batch!

Comments on Baseball's Best 1,000 (Part 2)

I recently picked up the 2008 edition of Derek Gentile's fun book Baseball's Best 1,000: Rankings of the Skills, the Achievements, and the Performance of the Greatest Players of All Time. I've enjoyed reading this book, and I recently started a series of blog posts where I comment on his selections. The first post is here, and I recommend you read that one first.

Before I comment on players he ranks 51-100, I wanted to warn readers that there are some noticeable typos in the book. Generally I find the book to be well-written, and with few errors, but there are a few mistakes which are kinda funny if you think about them (well, for baseball fans at least):

• Gentile clearly updated his section on Roger Clemens mid-way through the 2007 season, as he notes Clemens had gotten his 350th win. But then he indicates his lifetime record to be 350-118. This is way off, as after the 2007 season ended his record was 354-184. Suffice to say that if someone really had 350 wins AND a .748 career winning percentage, they would be rated even higher than the 20th spot that Gentile gives Clemens. Such a pitcher would be the best of all time (ahead of Johnson), and might even be a top-3 overall player.
• Several pitchers have their CG totals listed as "SB" -- likely a typo as the CG is the last stat given for each pitcher, while SB is the last stat given for each hitter. This happens for at least John Clarkson (#131), and for Ed Walsh (#135), though the error is made worse for Walsh as the 315 number given is actually his GS not his CG.
• But the typo I actually found hilarious was Dave Winfield's career Stolen Base mark, which was indicated to be 1,686 instead fo 223. Turns out 1,686 was his career strikeouts. If he was really that great on the basepaths (a full 280 more than career leader Rickey Henderson), then Winfield would surely have been rated a top-20 player, and not find himself in 140th place -- which is way to low, by the way.

OK... now my next batch of comments. As a reminder... I am not commenting on players from the Negro Leagues who are in the Gentile's top 1,000 list (indicating them with an asterisk). And when I refer to other rankings, these are:

• TSN - 1998 book "The Sporting News Selects Baseball's Greatest 100 Players"
• James - 2001 book by Bill James "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract

In starting where I left off, at number 51:

• 51. Arky Vaughn -- I like to give Arky his due, and James makes a strong case for him to rated as the #2 SS of all time, and even higher overall (39). No doubt, TSN snubbed him by not including him in their top 100 at all.
• 52. Bill Terry -- surely too high. While TSN generally agrees with Gentile, by rating Terry 59th, James completely disagrees by not including him the top 100 and only ranking him 26th amongst first-basemen. I have to agree more with James here, because while Terry's raw numbers look impressive, you have to consider the era in which he played (league batting average during his time was a lofty .289 and was over .300 in some seasons). So while I might not downgrade him as much as James does, I think 52nd is too high.
• 53. Cal Ripken
• 54. Whitey Ford -- Again, TSN agrees, ranking him 52nd. James keeps Ford off his top-100, and while I might get him in the top-100, I think 54 is too high.
• 55. Duke Snider
• 56. Steve Carlton
• 57. Buck Leonard *
• 58. Lou Brock -- Again, TSN agrees, ranking him 58th also. But I prefer James on this one too, as he doesn't include Brock in his top-100, presumably because of his lackluster fielding, low OBP and high strikeout rate. Oh, and did you know that Lou was only an all-star six times? Lower than I would have thought given his level of fame.
• 59. Bill Dickey -- Noticing a pattern at this point? TSN rates Dickey 57th, while James keeps him off his top-100. Interestingly, he doesn't downgrade fellow catching old-timer Mickey Cochrane, who Gentile ranks 62, TSN ranks 65, and James ranks 72. I'm not sure which I would rate higher.
• 60. Cap Anson
• 61. Cool Papa Bell *
• 62. Mickey Cochrane -- see comments above for Dickey.
• 63. Reggie Jackson
• 64. Roberto Clemente -- seems about right, though obviously I cringe at seeing him lower than Brock here. Surely TSN's ranking of him 20th is way too high! James has him 74th.
• 65. Hank Greenberg
• 66. Robin Yount
• 67. Tony Gwynn
• 68. Gabby Hartnett -- really? Before Piazza, Fisk, Carter as catchers? No way!
• 69. Harmon Killebrew
• 70. Bob Gibson -- I think he should be a bit higher. TSN has him at 31, and that might be too high. James says 46th.
• 71. Ryne Sandberg
• 72. Rod Carew
• 73. Joe Jackson -- hard to rate him because of his banishment. 73rd seems about right.
• 74. Mule Suttles *
• 75. Brooks Robinson
• 76. Home Run Baker
• 77. Ken Griffey Jr.
• 78. Willie McCovey
• 79. Ron Santo -- nice to see!
• 80. Dan Brouthers
• 81. Joe Cronin -- A bit high I think. Neither TSN nor James include Cronin in their top 100.
• 82. Wade Boggs -- This is fine placement relative to Carew and Gwynn I think, but surely he should be higher than Cronin!
• 83. Carl Hubbell
• 84. Al Simmons
• 85. Greg Maddux
• 86. Jim Palmer
• 87. Joe Williams *
• 88. Johnny Mize
• 89. Mike Piazza -- see Hartnett. And I would rate him close to Cochrane and Dickey.
• 90. Tim Raines -- very nice to see.
• 91. Dizzy Dean
• 92. Mark McGwire -- hard to rate him, given the clouds of suspicion.
• 93. Willie Stargell
• 94. Paul Waner
• 95. Willie Wells *
• 96. Al Kaline
• 97. Juan Marichal
• 98. Frankie Frisch
• 99. Sam Crawford
• 100. Mordecai Brown

Fun stuff!

In my third post in this series I won't list the players, I'll just comment on some I think are way too high or way to low from 101-1,000.

Top-25 Memories of Yankee Stadium

Local sports columnist Scott Pitoniak wrote an interesting piece in today's paper, "A Yankee Stadium Scrapbook". I especially like his top-25 list of famous events that took place at this famed location.

More Baseball HOF Probability Considerations

Local sports columnist Bob Matthews today updated his probability ratings for active players as to whether they will make the baseball Hall of Fame or not. I agree with most of his assessments. A few disagreements and other comments:

• I'm not sure that I'd quite rate Vladimir Guerrero as a 100% lock to make it. If he has just one or two more seasons, then yes. But as of today, maybe not quite. If Bob's assessment had that as an assumption, then fine.
• I'd put Vlad in a 75-99% category, something Bob didn't have. And with him I'd bump up Chipper Jones, instead of having him along with Jeff Kent and Lance Berkman at only 51-75 percent chance. In fact, I'd rate Jones just ahead of Guerrero if they both retired today.
• I'd also bump up Gary Sheffield from the 25-50% category to at least 51-75%, or perhaps 75-99%.
• If Hanley Ramirez is considered "Well on his way", then I should think Jose Reyes is too, as opposed to "Too early to gauge".
• I was glad to see Carlos Delgado and Jim Edmonds in the "Nice career, but no chance" category -- I fear they will have their supporters, but I don't think they are HOFers. I agree with all the other hitters he mentioned there too.
• As with hitters, I think a 76-99% category is needed, and in it I'd put John Smoltz. His Eckersley-like SP/RP combination is unique enough that I think he is nearly a lock.
• I'd switch Roy Oswalt and Billy Wagner, and have the latter in the 25-50 percent category and the former in the 1-25% category.
• And I'm glad to see him put Schilling and Mussina in the 25-50% category, though if Mussina can pitch again next year like he is this year, he'll become closer to a lock.
• As he turns 33 tomorrow, I don't consider Tim Hudson to be "Well on his way", but closer to "Nice career, but no chance". I think his best days are behind him.
• And ditto for Mark Buehrle, who is now 29, has never won 20 games, is not an exciting strikeout pitcher, and has a lifetime 3.79 ERA. I don't consider him to be "Well on his way".

Comments on Baseball's Best 1,000 (Part 1)

I recently picked up the 2008 edition of Derek Gentile's fun book Baseball's Best 1,000: Rankings of the Skills, the Achievements, and the Performance of the Greatest Players of All Time. Apparently he had a 2004 edition as well, though somehow I missed that. It seems this edition's rankings are based on stats/etc. up through about mid-way through the 2007 season.

The author notes that he doesn't have an overall single statistic approach, as other authors have used. Rather, he considers all the common statistics, as well as awards, all-star appearances, and so on -- taking into account both the absolute numbers and the era-relative comparisons as well. I prefer this kind of approach to these kinds of "all-time" questions in baseball, though I also enjoy the attempt to create a single overall, cross-era-comparing equation (like TPR or WIn Shares or whatever).

The author also does his best to include players from the Negro Leagues, though with incomplete data this isn't easy to do. Because of this, and because my own knowledge of the Negro League players is not very strong, I won't comment on any of them in what follows (except to indicate "*" in each case).

Any two baseball fan's top-10 all-time player's list will vary, and even more so their top-100 list. So naturally a top-1000 list will vary a great deal indeed. While no one rank Rich Dauer (his #1000) over Babe Ruth (his #1), there is a lot of room for healthy debate in such a ranking project. What follows are my disagreements with his listing -- in some cases I have questions or just mild disagreement, but in other cases I am baffled as to how the author could rank the player there instead of much higher or lower.

When I refer to other rankings, these are:

• TSN - 1998 book "The Sporting News Selects Baseball's Greatest 100 Players"
• James - 2001 book by Bill James "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract

I'll only comment on the players where I have something significant to say: lack of comment doesn't imply I necesssarily would rank that player in that exact spot, I just don't disagree enough to say anything.

In this post, I'll start with consideration of his top-50:

1. Babe Ruth
2. Willie Mays
3. Honus Wagner -- interesting to see him this high, before his contemporary Ty Cobb. He was sometimes referred to as the "Cobb of the NL", but was Cobb ever called the "Wagner of the AL"? TSN ranks Cobb 3rd and Wagner 13th (a bit low). In 2002 Cobb ranked 2nd all-time in Win Shares while Wagner came in 3rd. However in James's own top-100 list... he ranks Wagner second, ahead of both Mays and Cobb.
4. Ty Cobb
5. Walter Johnson
6. Barry Bonds -- tough to rank him, given his possibly (likely?) inflated numbers from steroids. And yet his numbers are mind-boggling.
7. Mickey Mantle -- this is the first big disagreement I have with Gentile. I don't see how Mantle could be this high -- over Ted Williams even?. TSN ranked him 17th, which might be a bit low but seems closer to the mark than 7th. But Gentile is in good company, as James ranked Mantle 6th (right after Cobb and before Williams). One can feel for Mantle's late-career injuries, but what about Williams lost years to the war?
8. Ted Williams
9. Josh Gibson*
10. Stan Musial
11. Joe DiMaggio -- Exactly where TSN had him ranked too. James listed him 13th -- and I prefer to see Speaker rated over Joe D.
12. Tris Speaker -- See above. Also, TSN ranked Speaker only 27th -- a travesty!
13. Lou Gehrig -- I'd rank Lou ahead of Joe D. as well, though James did not. TSN ranked him 6th -- surely too high.
14. Hank Aaron -- I'd rank him ahead of Joe D. as well.
15. Lefty Grove
16. Grover Cleveland Alexander -- I disagree with Alexander appearing so far ahead of Christy Mathewson. TSN agrees, as they have Mathewson as high as 7th, with Alexander at 12th. James seems to agree with Gentile though, ranking Alexander 20th and Mathewson 42nd.
17. Satchel Paige*
18. Eddie Collins -- Whenever I see him ranked this high I question it, but then after some thought, I tend to agree. TSN had him a bit lower at 24th. James flips Collins (18th) and Morgan (15th) amongst 2B. I'm conflicted though -- what about Rogers Hornsby? I still think of him as the greatest at the position (TSN ranks him 9th overall, while James has him 22nd).
19. Joe Morgan
20. Roger Clemens -- if you believe the steroid accusations, you might adjust down. He and Maddux were the best of their generation, but with Maddux you don't have the clouds overhead.
21. Rogers Hornsby -- see Collins discussion above.
22. Oscar Charleston*
23. Cy Young -- I'd probably nudge him up a bit. TSN had him 14th overall, James had him 23rd.
24. Mike Schmidt
25. Rickey Henderson -- Good to see. TSN totally messed this up by ranking him 51st. James is on target by rating him 26th.
26. Jackie Robinson -- Hard to rank him, because of his short career. Obviously, in terms of importance to the game, he is at or near the top (with Ruth and few others). TSN ranked him lower, at 44th place. James liked him at 32nd place.
27. Jimmie Foxx
28. Pete Rose -- another player who is hard to rank. Not only is their the distaste over his gambling, his attitude about his gambling, and his banishment from the game, but he also was a unique type of player and his lifetime numbers don't compare easily with other greats. TSN put him 25th, James had him 33rd, and I think somewhere around 25-35 is about right.
29. Frank Robinson
30. Eddie Mathews -- I don't like seeing Mathews ahead of Brett.
31. Pop Lloyd*
32. Mel Ott
33. Carl Yastrzemski -- seems about right, while TSN definitely does Yaz wrong by ranking him 72nd, below the likes of Pie Traynor!
34. Warren Spahn
35. Nap Lajoie
36. Yogi Berra -- the first catcher in the list (other than Josh Gibson of course). James also rated Berra top amongst catchers, and 41st overall. TSN went dramatically the other way, rating Bench 16th and Berra 40th -- surely there isn't that much distance between them.
37. Tom Seaver
38. Bob Feller
39. Roy Campanella -- I don't think he should rank ahead of Bench, and James lists him third amongst catchers as well.
40. George Sisler -- This is in line with TSN's view of Sisler (33rd), but I agree with James that he is overrated. James goes so far as to rate him 24th among 1B, and therefore not in his overall top 100 at all.
41. Christy Mathewson -- I really don't see how you can have this much space between Mathewson and Alexander, as their career numbers and achievements are quite similar. I'll admit that TSN's ranking of him as 7th ia a bit high, but I think Mathewson, Alexander, and Young should all be in the 10-20 range.
42. Turkey Stearnes*
43. George Brett -- I would have rated him higher than Mathews, and both TSN and James agree.
44. Johnny Bench -- see comments on Berra and Campy above.
45. Charlie Gehringer -- a bit high in my view. TSN has him 46th, but I like James's ranking of him at 59th.
46. Kid Nichols
47. Sandy Koufax -- a hard one to rank, due to his short career. TSN had him higher (26th), but I like him in this 40-60 range.
48. Eddie Murray -- my initial reaction was that this is too high, and that TSN's ranking at 77th is better. But upon reflection, I think somewhere in the 45-55 range is good. James rated him at 61.
49. Harry Heilmann -- Too high. This is similar to TSN's 54 ranking, but James considers him like Sisler (as having numbers aided by his era), and hence not worthy of even a top-100 spot.
50. Ernie Banks -- Gentile nearly splits the difference between TSN's ranking (38th) and James's (77th). I'd put Banks a bit closer to the lower end of this range.

I plan to look at the 51-100 ranked players next time, then more superficially comment on the remaining 900 in a third post.

Half-way through the 2008 Season

Right about now is the half-way point for the 2008 MLB season. Most teams have played around 81 games, so to determine a player's statistical pace for the year it is a simple "times two" calculation.

Here are my thoughts on some players so far.

Disappointing first half:

• David Ortiz -- .252, 13 HR, 43 RBI
• Carlos Pena -- .223, 11 HR, 36 RBI
• Robinson Cano -- .244, 6 HR, 33 RBI
• Vernon Wells -- .286, 8 HR, 36 RBI
• Alex Rios -- .281, 4 HR, 29 RBI (does have 16 SB)
• Paul Konerko -- .215, 8 HR, 30 RBI
• Delmon Young -- .282, 1 HR, 26 RBI (does have 9 SB)
• Miguel Cabrera -- .279, 11 HR, 47 RBI
• Gary Sheffield -- .224 5 HR, 16 RBI in only 156 AB
• Travis Hafner -- .217, 4 HR, 22 RBI in only 157 AB
• Victor Martinez -- .278, 0 HR, 21 RBI
• Kenji Johjima -- .233, 3 HR, 20 RBI
• Richie Sexson -- .220, 9 HR, 26 RBI
• Jimmy Rollins -- .264, 6 HR, 28 RBI (does have 17 SB)
• Ryan Zimmerman -- .257, 8 HR, 27 RBI
• Rickie Weeks -- .217, 7 HR, 22 RBI (does have 11 SB, 47 runs)
• Adam LaRoche -- .220, 7 HR, 31 RBI
• Ken Griffey -- .234, 9 HR, 34 RBI
• Eric Byrnes -- .205, 6 HR, 23 RBI (and only 4 SB)
• Andruw Jones -- .165, 2 HR, 7 RBI in only 133 AB
• Todd Helton -- .267, 7 HR, 28 RBI
• Khalil Greene -- .229, 8 HR, 31 RBI
• Justin Verlander -- 4-9, 4.42 ERA (improving recently)
• Jason Isringhausen -- 11 saves, 5.74 ERA
• Ian Snell -- 3-7, 5.99 ERA
• Roy Oswalt -- 6-8, 4.77 ERA
• Aaron Harang -- 3-10, 4.51 ERA (pitching better than his record indicates)
• Brad Penny -- 5-9, 5.88 ERA
• Barry Zito -- 3-11, 5.91 ERA (the definition of disappointment, given his mammoth contract)

Working on breakout seasons:

• Carlos Quentin -- .289, 18 HR, 60 RBI. He had been a prospect for a few years, but it wasn't clear if he was going to come through.
• Evan Longoria -- .271, 15 HR, 47 RBI (rookie, started season in AAA)
• Joakim Soria -- 21 Saves, 1.29 ERA. He had a fine rookie season, pitching in 62 games and getting 17 saves with a 2.48 ERA. But this year he has picked it up a notch.
• Rich Harden -- although injured a bit (per usual), he is 5-0 with a 2.15 ERA, and 83 K in 67 IP. If he can stay healthy for all of the second half (a big if), then this could be his best season yet.
• Justin Duchscherer -- 8-5, 1.91 ERA. After many years in the pen, he seems to be blossoming at age 30.
• Ian Kinsler -- .318, 13 HR, 50 RBI, 70 Runs, 25 doubles, 20 SB. Multiply by two and this is a great season!
• Josh Hamilton -- .309, 19 HR, 78 RBI. What a story this guy is!
• Jair Jurrjens -- 8-3 with a 2.94 ERA. A nice pickup by Atlanta from Detroit.
• Geovany Soto -- .280, 13 HR, 47 RBI are great for a catcher. This is his first full season, and he's only 25.
• Ryan Ludwick -- .286, 16 HR, 56 RBI. He did hit 14 HR last year in 303 at-bats, but few would have predicted this first half for him at age 29.
• Ben Sheets -- 9-1 and a 2.59 ERA. Seems like every year people predict he'll breakout -- it is finally happening for him at age 29.
• Nate McLouth -- .283, 14 HR, 51 RBI, 59 runs, 26 doubles, 9 SB. With Nady having a good year, and Bay a comeback of the year candidate, this OF trio gives the Pirates something to be cheer for.
• Edinson Volquez -- 10-3, 2.08 ERA, with 110 K in 99.3 IP. He hadn't shown much in brief stints for three years in Texas, but at age 24 he is showing us something!
• Tim Lincecum -- 9-1, 2.38 ERA. At age 24 and in his second season, he has stud written all over him.

Some other surprises so far this year:

• Troy Percival's comeback at age 39. He has 18 saves and a 3.08 ERA, after 8 saves in 2005, not playing in 2006, and 0 saves in 40 IP in 2007.
• Mariano Rivera's return to dominance at age 38. He has 22 saves and a microscopic 0.74 ERA. At this rate, he is on pace to have his best statistical season ever -- and that is saying a lot!
• Mike Mussina having a solid season at age 39. He is 10-5 with a 3.93 ERA. He's never won 20 games, but is on pace to barely do so this year (likely won't).
• Cliff Lee going 11-1 with a 2.34 ERA, after going 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA last year. He was 18-5 in 2005, so no one would have said this was impossible, but I doubt many predicted it either.
• Ervin Santana is 9-3, 3.32 ERA. After going 16-8 in 2006, he went 7-14 with a 5.76 ERA last year.
• Joe Saunders is 11-4 with a 3.06 ERA. In his first two seasons he went 7-3 and 8-5.
• Milton Bradley -- .329, 16 HR, 49 RBI. If you can figure this guy out, you win a prize.
• Brad Lidge has 19 saves and a 0.84 ERA. He was a bit of question mark when the season began, given his inconsistencies the last two years.
• Chipper Jones is hitting an insane .394, and has 16 HR with 46 RBI. He did hit .337 with 29 HR and 102 RBI last year, and he usually hits over .300. But still... .394?

Some impressive paces:

• Francisco Rodriguez -- 31 saves and a 2.06 ERA. That is a pace for 62 saves, which would break Bobby Thigpen's record of 57.
• Chase Utley -- 23 HR and 65 RBI times two is 46 HR and 130 RBI -- quite a pace for a 2B.
• Dan Uggla -- 23 HR and 58 RBI times two is 46 HR and 116 RBI -- also not a bad pace for a 2B.
• Lance Berkman -- .366, 21 HR, 66 RBI, 27 doubles, 70 runs. A great pace, but he is a great hitter. What is surprising though is his 12 SB, which is already more than his previous career best of 9.
• Chipper Jones -- .394... can he stay close to .400? He has a chance if he takes days off now and then.
• Ryan Howard -- 113 strikeouts, on pace for 226, which would break the record that he set last year with 199.
• The following pitchers have 10 or more wins, and hence are on pace for 20-win seasons: Brandon Webb 12, Cliff Lee 11, Joe Saunders 11, Mike Mussina 10, Vincente Padilla 10, Aaron Cook 10, Edinson Volquez 10. Eight others have 9. We should end up with more 20-game winners than in some recent season.

It might be time to retire:

• Todd Jones -- 14 saves, 4.94. He is 40, and the Tigers desperately need to find a closer to replace him (injuries have slowed a few candidates).
• Tom Glavine -- 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA. 42 years old.
• Pedro Martinez -- 2-2 with a 7.12 ERA. At 36, he'll might give it another few seasons, but he is hurting his lifetime ERA at this rate!
• Randy Johnson -- 4-6, 4.94 ERA. Still strikes hitters out: 76 K in 82 IP. But at age 44, it looks like it will be tough to get 12 more wins to reach 300.
• Jeff Kent -- .251, 8 HR, 34 RBI. He is 40, and that .292 OBP isn't pretty.
• Omar Vizquel -- .161, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB, in only 118 at-bats. At age 41, I hope he calls it quits soon.

Overrated and Underrated Baseball Players

I recently finished reading The Stark Truth, by Jayson Stark, a columnist and frequent commentator on ESPN. Overall, I found the book a worthwhile read: a great topic, though I do have one major criticism.

I like Mr. Stark when he appears on ESPN. But I do not like his writing style. Or at least, I don't like his style in this book (I'm not familiar with his writing style for the Philadelphia Inquirer). I found myself only being able to read this book in 10-page sections -- that is how annoying I found his approach! Practically every sentence -- certainly every paragraph -- tried to be cute and clever. I literally yelled out a few times "Stop! Just write like a normal, boring person for a few pages, please!" His style is just too over-the-top for me -- frankly, I've never read any other author quite like this.

But his topic certainly was an interesting one: selecting the five most underrated and the five most overrated baseball players at each position, and detailing why in each case. For someone like me, this is great fun.

I generally agreed with many of his selections, though I'm sure if I spent enough time my lists of five would have come out differently in many cases. A few random bits I'll note here, as teaser for any readers who might be inclined to get the book:

• I definitely like the inclusion of Don Drysdale as second on the overrated RHP list after the consensus-#1 selection of Nolan Ryan. I'm actually not as down on Ryan as most other serious baseball fans are, but I agree with Drysdale here. And I like his top three for underrated RHP: Feller, Marichal, and Blyleven.
• I don't know that Frank Tanana deserves to be 4th on the list of overrated LHP (who really thinks of his career that highly?), though I agree that Barry Zito deserves to be 5th given his current fat contract. For most underrated LHP, Babe Ruth is an interesting selection. And I like Warren Spahn, Steve Carlton, and Lefty Grove as next on this list.
• I definitely agree with Lee Smith as top of the most overrated relief pitcher list, and also agree with Goose Gossage as top of the most underrated. Oh, and my personal favorite pitcher as a kid, and the one who I patterned my own pitching style after -- Dan Quisenberry -- makes it as 5th on the most underrated list too.
• My dad would probably be glad to read the section on Yogi Berra as the most underrated catcher of all-time (as he and I used to argue over who was the all-time best at the position, Bench or Berra). And many would agree with including Ted Simmons and Gary Carter somewhere in the top-5 for most underrated too.
• Steve Garvey is the top most-overrated 1B, and I agree he should at least be on the list somewhere. And ditto for Tony Perez who is listed 4th, and for Gil Hodges who is listed 5th (and will likely one day be one of the most marginal Hall-of-Famers ever, joining Perez in that respect). Choosing Hank Greenberg as the most underrated 1B of all time is a fine selection in my opinion.
• I cracked a smile when I saw Steve Sax as the most overrated 2B -- definitely agree there. The most underrated 2B list includes Craig Biggio and Bobby Grich, two good choices. He then lists Rogers Hornsby third, which is very odd since he is generally regarded as the all-time best at the position. Stark's reason is his anger at the Cardinals for not having Hornsby as one of their five nominees for Greatest Cardinal in History -- a mistake with which I agree 100% (Umm... Lou Brock instead of Hornsby? Really?)
• I would have probably listed Pie Traynor as #1 most overrated 3B over Craig Nettles. But for most underrated I gotta agree with Ron Santo: when will he get into the HOF? Eddie Mathews, Darrell Evans, and Ken Boyer are also good choices on this list.
• At SS, clearly Phil Rizzuto had to be on the most overrated list somewhere and being first is fine with me. Stark lists Barry Larkin as the most underrated, and I'll agree with that if Barry should struggle to get into the HOF when his time comes.
• I won't argue with Lou Brock as the most overrated LF of all-time, and I definitely agree that Stan Musial, Tim Raines, Ralph Kiner, and Minnie Minoso are underrated.
• I don't know about listing Andruw Jones as the most overrated CF of all-time -- he is still surprisingly young, so I have a wait-and-see attitude on his career. Hack Wilson though... definitely... he'd be my #1 here. And speedsters Juan Pierre, Mickey Rivers and Omar Moreno are good choices here too. Stark makes a good point about Duke Snider being overshadowed by Mickey and Willie, and I like Jimmy Wynn's inclusion on the all-underrated CF list too. And Tris Speaker too... how often do you think of Tris Speaker when you think of Ty Cobb and Honus Wagner? Not often enough I bet.
• I like listing Darryl Strawberry as an overrated RF, and Chuck Klein too: He had a few huge seasons, but during the everyone-hits-well 1930s and he played in the Baker Bowl and those two factors inflated his numbers. I like listing Frank Robinson as underrated here, because like Speaker in CF, how often do you think of Frank along with Mays, Mantle, and Aaron? And Dwight Evans was a consistently good player, but always overshadowed for me by Jim Rice's more explosive numbers.

A final section is also a lot of fun, as Stark lists his choices for top-3 underrated and top-3 overrated by franchise. This involves some repeats from the lists-by-position, but some additional names are introduced too.

So my writing-style criticism aside, if you are a big baseball fan you will enjoy this book, so check it out at your local bookstore or order it from Amazon!

The Prank on Kyle Kendrick

Check out the YouTube video covering the "you've been traded to Japan" prank on Phillies pitcher Kyle Kendrick. Classic!

Congrats to Goose

Goose Gossage finally was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. He should have gotten in years ago. In 2007 he came close 71.2% of the vote (75% is needed). This year's new class of candidates was extremely weak, so that allowed voters to think further about Goose, and so he suddenly received 85.9% of the vote.

How weak was this year's class? In my view Tim Raines is a marginal hall-of-famer, but he only received 24.3% during this first year. I would vote for him, but I don't know if he'll ever get in. Other than him, no one from this year's class even got the 5% of the vote necessary to remain on the ballot next year (Rod Beck, Travis Fryman, Robb Nenn, Shawon Dunston, Chuck Finley, David Justice, Chuck Knoblauch, Todd Stottlemyre, Jose Rijo, Brady Anderson).

So naturally many holdovers did better this year. Gossage was elected, and Jim Rice nearly made it too, as he climbed from 63.5% to 72.2%. Next year's class has sure HOFer Rickey Henderson, but not many others who will get a lot of support (Mark Grace? Matt Williams? Mo Vaughn?), so hopefully Rice will get in. Actually, I'm more supportive of Bert Blyleven than Rice, but I'd vote for those two as well as Andre Dawson. Bert this year climbed from 47.7% to 61.9%, while Andre climbed from 56.7% to 65.9%.

ESPN's Hotstove Pages

For fellow baseball fans out there, be sure to check out ESPN's well-done "hotstove" section. Here you can easily go through each team and see their predicted starters for 2008, with tabs for players gained, lost, and current free agents. This is a great way to keep up with all the offseason moves, and prepare for fantasy baseball leagues next year.

Who's On First and Star Wars

Even though I have it memorized by now, I still laugh when I hear Abbott and Costello's famous "Who's on first?" routine. But I was delighted to discover a version that merges the audio of this routine with video clip footage of Yoda and a lesser Star Wars character. Although its only a small part of the routine, its enough.

On Greg Maddux and 400 Wins

In June of 2006 I posted an item on the 300 Win Club in baseball. I wrote about how very few additional pitchers are likely to make it to 300, with Tom Glavine being the obvious one to predict at that time. He did in fact go beyond 300 in 2007, and the next in line, Randy Johnson, is at 284 wins after an injury-shortened 2007 campaign held him to a 4-3 record. Should he make it to 300, he could be the last. Mike Mussina could possibly do it, as he is at 250, but there is no way David Wells (239), Jamie Moyer (230), Curt Schilling (216), or Kenny Rogers (210) will get there. Pedro Martinez proved he can still pitch at age 35 by going 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA in September after rehabilitating most of the season. But with only 209 wins and history of being fragile, I wouldn't bet much on him getting to 300. As I said in that entry, "never again" is a strong claim to make, but it is a worthwhile question to raise at this point.

But a recent post to the SABR-L discussion list raised another interesting question along the same lines: could Greg Maddux reach 400 wins? I had never thought of that, but it seems at least reasonable to ask.

I'll begin by noting I don't see Roger Clemens getting to 400 wins. He has more than Maddux currently, as he ended the 2007 season with an outstanding lifetime 354-184 record. While he was dominating for the Astros in 2005 (13-8, 1.87 ERA in 32 starts) and 2006 (7-6, 2.30 ERA in 19 starts), his 2007 season back in the AL with the Yankees was a disappointment (6-6, 4.18 ERA in 17 starts). He turned 45 in August, so I consider it likely he either won't come back for another season, or if he does his performance will continue to decline. Getting 46 more wins would mean pitching until his 49th birthday at least -- and I don't even see the great Roger Clemens doing that.

But what about Greg Maddux? At only age 41 he ended the 2007 season with a lifetime 347-214 record. He continues to start 30+ games a year -- in fact, he's done that every year since 1987 except the two strike-shortened seasons in the 1990s. And while he's far from his dominance of a decade ago, he continues to be a quality #2-4 guy in a rotation, posting records of 13-15, 15-14, and 14-11 the past three years. His ERA ihas been over 4.00 the past four seasons, but not far above and still around or slightly better than the league average.

So could he pitch four more seasons? Very possibly, since that would put him at age 45 for his last year in 2011. Could he average 13-14 wins a season for those years? That could be tough, as he'd have to not decline any from his recent levels. But if we won say, 14, 14, 13, and 13 that would give him 401 wins for his career. So would give seasons with win totals of 14, 13, 11, 9 and 7. Either of those scenarios seem at least possible. Of course, he could easily choose to retire before then, or finally get that bad injury that his excellent conditioning and high intelligence have allowed him to avoid his entire career. But neither of those events are at all predictable.

So what would joining the exclusive 400-win club mean exactly? Any serious baseball fan knows he'd be only the third major-league pitcher to reach that mark. The incomparable Cy Young of course tops the list with an insane 511 wins. Walter Johnson is second all-time with 417. After that are fellow old-timers Grovery Cleveland (Pete) Alexander and Christy Mathewson with 373

Most of the highest guys on this list are from baseball's earliest days, with only Warren Spahn (1942-1965) currently at 360 or more wins. He ended up with a 363-245 record, and was a model of consistency. He won 20+ games 13 times, but never won more than 23 in a season. In fact, starting in 1956 at the age of 35 he won 20+ games 7 out of 8 seasons. This culminated in his 23-7 and 2.60 ERA season in 1963, at the young age of 42. But then he went downhill fast, going 6-13 the next year and retiring after going 7-16 in 1965. An amazing career, and I bet people were asking about the possibility of 400 wins for Spahn after that 1963 season. But then it didn't happen, and didn't really come close to happening actually.

Next I'll discuss briefly the other recent players to top 300 wins (not including Tom Glavine), and how they did at the end of their careers:

• Steve Carlton ended up with a 329-244 record. He took home the Cy Young Award at age 37 in 1982, going 23-11 with a 3.10 ERA. But then he went 15-16 and 13-7, and ended with poor campaigns of 1-8, 9-14, and 6-14 (plus a brief 0-1 season at age 43 in 1988). He had great conditioning during his career, but clearly had lost it at the end and most would argue he held on too long.
• Nolan Ryan first made it to the bigs at the age of 19 in 1966, but that was a brief stint. He returned in 1968 but for three seasons he did mixed duty as a starter and relievers. He pitched for some bad teams, but I've seen some analyses that indicate that his wins total didn't actually suffer that much because of it. One season where it clearly did was 1987, when at the age of 40 he had a 2.76 ERA but managed only an 8-16 record. In the end he recorded a 324-292 lifetime record. He was still going strong in 1991 at age 44, when he posted a 12-6 record. But then his last two years he went only 5-9 and 5-5.
• Don Sutton only reached 20 wins in a season, going 21-10 in 1976. Still, he ended up with a 324-256 recor. He won 15 games in both 1985 and 1986, but then at age 42 he slipped to an 11-11 record and in 1988 at age 43 he went only 3-6 in 16 starts.
• Phil Niekro through a knuckler so he was able to hold on a long time, finally retiring at age 48 in 1987 with a 318-274 record. He had several fine seasons past the age of 40, but that last was weak (7-13 with a 6.30 ERA).
• Gaylord Perry took home Cy Young Award honors in 1978 at age 40 going 21-6 with a 2.73 ERA. But then had win totals of 12, 10, 8, 10, and 7, ending up with a lifetime 314-265 mark.
• Tom Seaver, arguably the best pitcher of this group, actually ended up with the fewest career wins. He was going strong in 1981 at age 36, but the strike messed up his season (14-2, 2.54 ERA). The next two seasons were disasters, as he went 5-13 and then 9-14. A move to the AL revived his career, as he went 15-11 in 1984 and 16-11 in 1985. But then at age 41 he went 7-13 and called it quits after that. His lifetime record of 311-205 gives him a .603 winning percentage, but obviously he was no threat to reach 400 wins.

So it is clear from these other greats that it is quite easy to reach the 300-330 win mark, be in your early 40s, and then decline rapidly. But none of these guys went past 330, let alone reached 347 wins by age 41. Mr. Maddux has a chance, but because so many things could happen, I'd put it at well below 50/50.

2007 All-Star Squad -- What about Beckett?

In his Sunday column, local sportswriter Bob Mathews presented his 2007 All-Star squad.

I agree with Prince Fielder at 1B, with Howard and Pena as honorable mention, although I might have also mentioned Albert Pujols. Although Prince Albert didn't have a typically awesome season, he did hit .327 with a .429 OBP, 32 HR, and 103 RBI.

I can along with Chase Utley at 2B, even though missed some games due to injury. He also mentions Cano and Polanco, while I might have mentioned Brian Roberts or Brandon Phillips in addition or instead. Especially Phillips, as he joined the 30/30 club with 30 HR and 32 SB.

I agree that it was a great year for NL shortstops, and I agree that Rollins was the best of them. Hanley Ramirez is a solid honorable mention, though I don't see how he can mention Jeter without also listing Reyes with his 78 SB and 119 Runs.

At 3B choosing A-Rod is a no-brainer, and I like the four he mentioned as also-rans: Chipper, Cabrera, Wright, and Lowell. And that still leaves out fine seasons from Atkins and Aramis Ramirez.

His catcher is Posada, which is a fine choice, since he gave V. Martinez and Russell Martin their due as honorable mentions.

David Ortiz had yet another great year hitting, so he is the clear choice at DH. Bob mentions Frank Thomas, who had a fine year as well.

In the OF, the three starters are Holliday, Ordonez, and Vlad Guerrero. I can't argue with those selections, and he also honors Ichiro, Carlos Lee, Granderson and Crawford. There are many others he could have mentioned as well, like at least Eric Byrnes given his important role for the playoff Diamondbacks.

Bob lists Jake Peavy as the top RHP, and that seems obvious. The top LHP title goes to C.C. Sabathia. For RHPs he mentions Penny, Carmona, Lackey, Wang, and Webb -- and all had fine seasons. But what about Josh Beckett? This seems to be the biggest omission from Bob's column! Beckett was the only 20-game winner this year, posting a 20-7 record, with a 3.27 ERA, and 194 strikeouts. I would have honored Beckett ahead of Wang, Penny, and even Carmona, though perhaps not Lackey or Webb. As additional LHPs, Bob mentions Bedard, Santana, and Hamels, and I have no problem with that group.

For relievers, his top pick is J.J. Putz and I agree there. He then mentions Saito, Nathan, and Papelbon, and I like those picks too.

His MVPs are A-Rod and Holliday, and I agree... with Holliday barely edging Rollins in the NL. And I like his Cy Young choices of Peavy and Sabathia, though I could see Beckett winning the AL vote. Dustin Pedroia certainly had a good AL rookie campaign, so I like him getting the ROY there. The NL ROY is a tougher call, as Bob goes with Troy Tulowitzki in a tough call over Ryan Braun. Troy did play the entire season, but that is what makes Braun's numbers all the more impressive -- he has better numbers in 150-fewer at-bats -- so I give Braun the NL ROY award.

It was quite a season, and I'm looking forward to the playoffs!

Granderson and Rollins Join Elite Club

Here is a followup to my earlier posting about the incredible season of Curtis Granderson this year. Not only did Curtis join the 20/20/20/20 club (HR, D, T, SB), but Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies has as well.

Is that a big deal? Yes! In the history of the game how many people have had such 20/20/20/20 seasons? Just two: Willie Mays in 1957 and Frank "Wildfire" Schulte in 1911. And now all of a sudden this club doubles in size in one season!

Here are the final numbers for Granderson and Rollins in 2007:

Granderson: 38 D, 23 T, 23 HR, 26 SB (only 1 CS), .302 Avg, 122 Runs, 74 RBI

Also, Granderson's 23 T is the most anyone has had in a season since Dale Mitchell's 23 in 1949.

Rollins: 38 D, 20 T, 30 HR, 41 SB (only 6 CS), .277 Avg, 139 Runs, 94 RBI

Oh, and for what its worth, it seems Jimmy Rollins broke the record for most At-bats in a season this year with 716. The old record was Willie Wilson with 705 in 1980. He also set the record for most Plate Appearances with 778. The old record was 773 by Lenny Dykstra in 1993.

Of Gold and Silver

Mark Snyder had an interesting post that considers the intersection of baseball's Gold Glove Award and Silver Slugger Award winners over the years.

Hitting The Cutoff Man Series

Mark Snyders has recently started up an interesting series of postings called Hitting the Cutoff Man. He is analyzing various baseball statistical milestones -- like the well known 300 wins, 3000 hits, and 500 HRs -- to determine who the "cutoff men" are for inclusion in the Hall-of-Fame. This is an interesting way to approach the HOF question, and one I've not seen done before. He started with a discussion of Wins for pitchers, and then did Extra-Base Hits for hitters.

Update on Granderson

Here is a followup on two baseball posts I made recently. As part of the 8th post I made in Baseball Lists series, I noted the five players who have had 20 HR, 20 Triples, and 20 Doubles all in one season. Curtis Granderson hit his 20th HR yesterday. Then more recently I posted on Curtis Granderson's season this year, focusing on his triples total, but also noting that he had already joined the group of players who have had 15 HR, 15 T, 15 D, and 15 stolen bases all in one season.

Well, Curtis hit his 20th HR yesterday. So he is now the 6th player to make the 20/20/20 HR/T/D club. Further, he has 19 SB this year, so with just one more he'll join only Willie Mays (1957) and oldtimer Frank "Wildfire"